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Oil drops below $0, signaling extreme collapse in demand

This photo from Oct. 2018, shows an oil rig and pump jack in Midland, Texas. On Monday, the price of barrel of oil tumbled past negative $40, meaning producers would have to pay just to take a barrel off their hands. (Jacob Ford / AP)
By Will Englund Washington Post

When the price of oil seemingly stepped through the looking glass Monday and tumbled past negative $40 a barrel, it summoned up an image of the world of petroleum turned wrong-side-round.

In theory it meant that producers would have to pay traders $40 or more just to take a barrel of what used to be called black gold off their hands.

It was fleeting, and symbolic, more than anything. It won’t have much effect on the price of gasoline at the pump. It had to do with a specific supply of oil – West Texas Intermediate – and was tied up with the closing of the contract period for May delivery of oil at a time when a global glut stemming from the coronavirus pandemic means no one needs more petroleum at the moment.

The price movement was a short-term anomaly, according to analysts with S&P Global Platts, a commodities analysis firm, and by Tuesday traders will be looking at June futures, which are still selling in positive territory.

Nonetheless, the notion that a barrel of oil was worth less than zero was a shock to many.

And it won’t soon be forgotten because it is a vivid symptom of the extraordinary ills afflicting the worldwide oil business. Major oil companies have cut back spending on new wells by 30% to 50%, and oil field service companies have been laying off more and more workers. Some companies have started to shut in their wells, taking a serious hit to their finances.

And even if that June price holds steady – it was hovering around $20 Monday – it is still down about 65% this year, and over time it would devastate North American shale and sand tar companies.

“Whether June contract is fairly priced or has downside, the price is TERRIBLE,” tweeted Abhi Rajendran of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Time to wake up to the possibility of 2-3 mil bpd (million barrels per day) or more of US oil supply gone in a month. Could be talking about 3-4.”

An economist at the University of Notre Dame doubts that that June price will hold steady. The June and July futures prices reflect increased demand for gasoline and jet fuel, said Gianna Bern, but she noted that demand in the transport sector is “at a standstill.”

“In the coming days,” she said, “I think we could see a weak WTI June contract.”

Few want oil in May because there is hardly anywhere to put it. That’s why speculators who held contracts for May delivery – contracts that in a normal month they would have sold to refineries at the last minute – were left with few options Monday but to swallow the losses. One factor not reflected in the tumbling price, though, is that trading was light throughout the day.

Starting in January, the pandemic led to a gradual and then sudden shutdown of the world economy, so that demand is now an estimated 25% to 30% below what it was. But oil-producing nations kept pumping through March and into early April as the Saudis and Russians tried to bluff each other into cutting production, and storage capacity has neared the brink. What little is left has been tied down with leases.

On April 12, both sides, together with the other main members of OPEC, agreed to cut production by a purported 10 million barrels a day, or about 10% of global output. But that still is less than the decline in consumption, and stocks have kept growing.

“This moment is of course historical, and could not better illustrate the price-utopia that the market has been in since March, when the full scale of the oversupply problem started to become evident but the market remained oblivious,” Louise Dickson of Rystad Energy wrote in a note.

Worsening the pain for American producers is a small fleet of tankers leased by the Saudis before the price war was called off and heading to the United States loaded with Saudi crude, according to reports. It would represent seven times the usual amount of oil that Saudi Arabia ships here in a typical month, and it comes even as the United States, which had regained its status as an oil exporter last year, has seen its export markets crumble.

“Today’s collapse poses a devastating threat to our oil and gas sector, with job losses in the thousands and national security being weakened if the industry cannot recover,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said in a statement issued by his office Monday. “The dramatic low underscores why we cannot allow Saudi Arabia to flood the market, especially given our storage capacity dwindling.”