Will Mariners make playoffs in 2025? 3 reasons they will — and won’t.
PEORIA, Ariz. – In seasons past, just making the playoffs and ending an infamous and embarrassing drought served as the primary preseason goal for the Seattle Mariners.
But then in 2022, Cal Raleigh smashed a walk-off homer against the A’s, clinching the Mariners’ return to the postseason for the first time since 2001. After that, expectations changed. The World Series was mentioned without talking about someone else playing in it. The organization openly talked about winning the American League West and wrestling it away from the Astros.
And they, of course, failed to make the postseason in 2023 and 2024.
Perhaps a realignment of those priorities is in order. Everyone believes the Mariners would be a dangerous team if they made the playoffs. They showed glimpses of that in 2022. But until they make the postseason again, it’s still more of a theory than a reality.
Can the Mariners get back to the postseason in 2025? Here are three reasons why they will, and three reasons they won’t.
Why the Mariners will make the playoffs
The rotation keeps rolling: The Mariners had the best rotation in all of baseball in 2024, and they return those five key contributors again this season.
Can Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo be even better in 2025?
They combined to make 149 starts last season with the Mariners posting a 77-72 record. Most of those wins came when the starter was exceptional, as the quintet combined for 88 quality starts. That means almost 60% of the time they took the mound, they produced six-plus innings of work and allowed three or fewer earned runs. In those quality starts, the Mariners posted a 59-29 record.
If the Mariners can get 145 combined starts from the same five this season and have just a respectable offense to complement them, they should win at least 80 of those outings.
The Edgar effect: For their first 128 games of last season, the Mariners’ offense stunk. The collection of hitters produced too few hits, struck out way too much and failed too often with runners in scoring position.
When manager Dan Wilson was hired after Scott Servais’ firing, he brought in old friend Edgar Martinez to take over as hitting coach.
The quiet and unassuming Martinez agreed to try to fix what was broken in his own way – simplifying the situation. He wanted hitters to use a basic approach, focusing on hard contact up the middle instead of pulling for power and using the whole field, particularly with two strikes.
In those first 128 games, the Mariners had the worst batting average (.216) and strikeout rate (27.7%), third-worst on-base plus slugging percentage (.686) and fourth-fewest runs scored (503).
In Seattle’s final 34 games, the offense produced a 125 weighted runs created (wRC+) – a stat that measures offensive production through run creation with 100 being average. It was the third best in MLB over that span behind the Dodgers (134) and Diamondbacks (127).
In more traditional measures, the Mariners averaged 5.1 runs per game with a .255/.347/.417 slash line, a 10.4% walk rate and a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Martinez’s voice and strategy resonated with everyone but had a major impact on young superstar Julio Rodríguez, who was mired in a miserable season.
Players, particularly Rodríguez, have vowed that the small sample size of success in 2024 will carry into 2025 due to the simplicity of Martinez’s strategy.
A Brash and better bullpen: While the Mariners’ offensive production, or lack thereof, deservedly took plenty of criticism for its inability to contribute at even average levels in 2024, the failures of an injury-riddled bullpen should not be overlooked.
With Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar undergoing season-ending elbow surgeries and not throwing a single pitch in the season and Gregory Santos making only eight appearances due to an assortment of injuries, the bullpen lacked depth and power arms with swing-and-miss stuff.
It was an ordeal to hold leads in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings to hand to closer Andres Munoz, who battled back issues all season. The Mariners asked middle relievers like Trent Thornton, Collin Snider and rookie Troy Taylor to pitch in leverage situations despite having minimal experience in those roles.
The Mariners’ bullpen ranked 26th out of 30 teams in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement at 1.7 in 2024. By comparison, the 2023 unit ranked eighth in MLB at 5.5 fWAR. While the bullpen’s 3.71 ERA was better than league average, they also had a 61% save rate, which was in the bottom third of the league. The relievers allowed inherited runners to score 38% of the time, which was third highest in MLB.
The bullpen won’t be at full strength when the season opens. Santos is healthy and pitching in Cactus League games … for now. Brash is on track to return in late April, which will be a major boost. Kowar is expected to be back by mid-May along with veteran right-hander Trevor Gott, who returned to the organization on a minor-league contract.
Munoz arrived at spring training lighter with more core stability and is poised to hold down the closer role. Lefty Gabe Speier, who dealt with shoulder issues and decreased velocity in 2024, has looked healthy this spring with his fastball velocity ranging from 94 to 97 mph.
Why the Mariners won’t make the playoffs
Injuries: Most teams cannot withstand major injuries to their projected 26-man roster. The idea of depth for most organizations is just that – an idea. The Mariners’ position player group is somewhat lacking as is. A major injury to any of their top performers – Rodríguez, Raleigh or Randy Arozarena – would be catastrophic. Scoring runs would move from difficult to impossible.
The rotation is already dealing with an unexpected injury. A sore shoulder will force Kirby to the injured list, delaying the start to his season by at least two weeks, if not a month. Last season, Woo missed the first month of the season due to forearm tightness.
If Brash were to experience a setback in his return, that would also be an issue, since the Mariners are short on leverage arms.
The regression is reality: The Mariners are looking for bounce back seasons from several players, including Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver from the position player group and Castillo, Speier and Santos from the pitchers. But what if their decreased production wasn’t just a one-off due to circumstance and is instead a sign of similar struggles this season? The biggest concerns would be Polanco, Garver, Crawford and Castillo, who are all older than 30 and moving away from their peak.
Polanco and the Mariners attributed his down 2024 season to a nagging left knee issue that has been surgically repaired.
Crawford was banged up for most of last season, leading to one of his worst years of production at the plate. He turned 30 in July and staying healthier and producing will be a little more difficult.
Castillo didn’t seem to have consistent command or swing-and-miss stuff on his pitches. He struggled to be efficient in counts and in games, giving up more hard contact than usual. Now 32, is Castillo’s age and workload catching up with him?
They just aren’t good enough: The American League West seems to be wide open. Would winning the division be the Mariners’ easiest path back into the postseason? It’s possible. But last season, 86 wins were enough to grab the third wild-card spot.
The AL East has three teams – Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles – capable of winning 90 games, and the Rays are always competitive. The AL Central is much improved with four of the five teams believing they can make the playoffs while taking advantage of the White Sox in their division.
As for the West, everybody other than the Angels seems capable of saying they can win the division. The Astros lost their version of Eddie Haskell and longtime third baseman Alex Bregman to free agency and traded away All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker and All-Star reliever Ryan Pressley, but they also brought in first baseman Christian Walker. If their rotation can return to some level of health, they would be the favorite.
Texas can score runs, but can the rotation and bullpen be healthy or good enough to not give up so many runs?
The A’s are a vastly improved team. A year ago, they posted a 29-21 record in July and August. They went 39-37 over the final three months and have improved their roster for this season.
The Mariners didn’t really add much to their position player core this offseason. They are relying on the starting pitching to still be outstanding, the return of relievers from offseason surgery to fix the bullpen and bounce back seasons from several players. Logic says not all three will happen.