A Grip on Sports: Sometimes the NCAA tourney is a numbers game and those don’t seem to favor Gonzaga much tonight

A GRIP ON SPORTS • First thing this morning? Checking my brackets – plural. First one, done with an eye on each team’s overall metrics, is doing OK. After all, it’s been a chalky tournament. The second one? Let’s not talk about it. Maybe defense doesn’t win championships.

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• Funny thing about using an analytical approach when trying to figure out the NCAA men’s bracket. The selection committee didn’t seem to figure in analytics all that much. That’s how we have Gonzaga vs. Houston in the second round. An Elite Eight matchup masquerading as a round of 32 game.

Our favorite analytical guru, Ken Pomeroy, has been putting his numbers together since 2002. We became addicted to his product a little after. And have been an acolyte ever since. It’s why we wanted to pencil in the Zags – KenPom’s eighth-best team – to the regional finals this year, no matter where the committee decided to send them.

Alas, the folks in the selection room weren’t believers. They crunched the statistical numbers into dust, decided, in Gonzaga’s case, not North Carolina’s, only the won-loss numbers mattered. They handed Mark Few’s squad an eight seed. And a date with Pomeroy’s No. 2, the Houston Cougars (5:40, TNT).

It was a bit of a surprise. A six seed seemed reasonable. Like Illinois, Missouri, BYU and Mississippi – Pomeroy’s 16, 20, 24 and 26 teams – were given. Funny, all those teams had a worse record than Gonzaga, albeit with better conference competition. But that’s what the analytical formulas level out, competition over the course of the season. It’s why the NCAA has its own – the NET, in which GU is eighth as well.

Ah, well. It was the hand Gonzaga has been dealt. What will they do with it?

Fold, more than likely. Maybe not right away. Maybe not at all, but we can’t argue that analytics are great predictors without acknowledged the Zags just don’t measure up the Kelvin Sampson’s team.

It’s efficient defensively, as always, and offensively, ditto. The Cougars get after you, turn you over and leave you in their dust. They attack the glass relentlessly, but still find the will to slow transition. They do all of this for 40 minutes, challenging their opponent mentally and physically to keep up.

Can Gonzaga? To quote Kurt Russell portraying Herb Brooks: “Not tonight.”

• If the numbers are right, then another number-based streak ends tonight as well. The Zags’ run of consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearances stops at nine.

There would be a certain symmetry to it ending as well.

The last time Gonzaga didn’t make the second weekend was in 2014. The Zags were an under-seeded eight that year as well, though not as egregiously. Their 28-6 record entering the tournament was undervalued and they were given an eight seed. They handled No. 9 Oklahoma State rather easily. Then ran into the buzz saw that was No. 1 seed Arizona that year, losing 84-61. Doesn’t that all sound familiar?

Since, their worst seed has been an 11, in 2016. That’s better, in a lot of ways, than an eight – if getting to the second weekend is a priority – as the first-round opponent may be better, but the next one (in 2016, third-seeded Utah) is worse.

And, who knows, the top seed might fall victim somewhere down the line.

• One other thought for this Saturday and we’ll turn you loose for another day of NCAA watching.

George Foreman was a larger-than-life figure for as long as he was alive.

He was larger than life in 1968, when he won the Olympic gold medal, holding an American flag in the Mexico City ring during the same Games in which John Carlos and Tommy Lee held up a gloved fist in protest.

He was when he flattened 1964 gold medalist Joe Frazier to win the world heavyweight title. And he was even in defeat, as 1960 gold medalist Muhammad Ali out-boxed him in Zaire in 1974.

He was, as well, when he was making pockets full of gold selling a grill no one really needed but everyone wanted. When he named his five boys, all of which were given the same name, George Foreman. When he was a preacher. And when he came out of retirement in his 40s, won another belt and came this close to stopping the best at the time, Evander Holyfield.

Foreman had faded from the spotlight recently, though his persona was large enough he was never really gone. Not when any of the things mentioned above would bubble up in the nation’s consciousness. He was still a giant in that arena, even from his backstage perch.

Foreman died Friday night in Houston, his forever home. He was 76. He will always be larger than life, even in death.

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Gonzaga: Lots of stories to get to, starting with Jim Meehan’s preview of tonight’s contest, highlighting the difference in styles. There will be a lot of pressure on Ryan Nembhard and how he responds may tell the tale. … Theo Lawson, who spent a lot of years on the Palouse himself, was given the assignment of covering Sampson’s Friday presser and with putting together this story about it. He also has a notebook and a story on how important Thursday’s win was to the Zags’ first-time NCAA participants. … Dave Boling’s column from Kansas? He looks at the throwback that is Braden Huff. … Even Jon Wilner gets in the act, with a column on the matchup and its weird timing. … And, as we said yesterday, there are national stories to pass along. .. The Bulldog women will face a Colorado squad powered by precocious freshmen. … Elsewhere in the WCC, Saint Mary’s shooting was almost WCC-finals bad to start its first-round matchup with Vanderbilt. But the Gaels did everything better in the second half and moved on with a 59-56 win.  

WSU: Around the (current, old and future) Pac-12 and the nation, remember, the NCAA tourney is also about money. A lot of money. … Maybe that’s why there is no Cinderella team this year. No one worse than a 12 seed advanced out of the first round for the first time since 2017. Sad. And a glimpse of the future probably. … Still, there is a lot to watch today. … The roster is the only thing to watch with the Washington men. The Huskies lost two and retained two. … No. 5-seed Oregon earned a date with fourth-seed Arizona by handling Liberty rather easily. The Wildcats pushed No. 13 Akron around in another easy win. The two old Pac-12 rivals will meet Sunday in Seattle. … The Ducks have a bench player who left Colorado, where he played football. … It isn’t easy for mid-majors like Colorado State. And it is getting harder, due to funding discrepancies. The Rams still figured out a way to get past Memphis on Friday. … Even a place like Colorado has to deal with it. … What’s next for Utah State and its coach after it was shoved out of the tournament by UCLA? The Bruins have tougher tasks ahead. … San Diego State will not be welcoming back its leading scorer. He’s entering the portal. … Around the women’s game, Oregon led by a lot and then didn’t. The Ducks held on, though, and topped Vanderbilt. … Oregon State has a chance to shock the nation once again, facing North Carolina on the Tar Heels home court today. … UCLA looked every bit the part of the No. 1 seed last night, though South Carolina was even better earlier in the day. … USC gets started today. … So does California, the only representative of the Bay Area in the women’s bracket. … Utah’s season is over after a first-round loss to Indiana. … Arizona State has a new coach. And Molly Miller may not even have to find a new house. She coached Grand Canyon. … In football news, Marshall Faulk brings a lot of playing experience and success to Colorado’s staff. … Arizona decided it needed to be faster at receiver.

EWU and Idaho: Around the Big Sky, the long Montana drought on the hardwood ended this season with the men’s appearance in the NCAA tourney. … Weber State is staying the course with its coach. … Montana State’s women put together a sustained stretch of excellence during the season. … In football news, Montana State’s transfer quarterback has some thoughts to share. … Cal Poly announced its full 2025 schedule. … Sacramento State has started spring practice.

Preps: Not only can we pass along a short roundup of Friday’s action, we also have a story from the central part of the state about a shortage of officials.

Chiefs: Spokane was in the Arena last night, were rolling and, with four minutes left in regulation, held a two-goal lead over Seattle. But, as Dave Nichols tells us, the Chiefs let it all slip away and lost in a shootout.

Seahawks: Maybe we could have put this piece of news in the WSU section. But River Cracraft has been away from the Palouse long enough practicing his professional craft in such places as Denver, Santa Clara and Miami, that we felt it was appropriate to slot it here. The veteran receiver signed with the Hawks yesterday. … There were a couple depth-related signings also announced Friday.

Sounders: Rested? Sure. Short-handed? Yep, that too as Houston visits.

Mariners: Big news for some. Maybe even us in the not-too-distant future, especially if Comcast continues its cruddy service like Friday, when we couldn’t change channels during games due to a local service issue. Made our NCAA viewing experience pretty awful. Anyhow, the M’s and ROOT Sports have come up with a way to stream the games. For $19.99 a month. … On the field, do the M’s really play better away from T-Mobile? … Logan Gilbert made his final appearance before opening day. The Mariners lost both split-squad games.

Reign: Seattle is on the road today for the first time this season.

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• A note before we move on to some news. We love the Dishman Hills. All three separate parts. Hiked through all of it. Over and over. Soon, we will be able to start up by our home near Glenrose and end up near Sprague. That’s cool. Now all we need is a way to get south from Glenrose to the Rocks of Sharon. Michael Wright has this story. … We’ll be back tonight with a throwback. A TV Take from tonight’s game. We may just examine many of the same themes we did above. Hope the guy in charge skips this column this morning so he can be dazzled by my on-deadline artistry tonight. Until later …