Women’s March Madness predictions: Look for UCLA, UConn to come out of Spokane

The early rounds of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament generally don’t incite as much madness as the men’s event. Higher seeds are typically much more successful on the women’s side; no seed lower than a No. 3 has won the women’s tournament over the past two decades, a span in which Connecticut won the men’s tournament as a No. 7 and a No. 4 seed. No team seeded worse than No. 5 has even reached the women’s final, and the Elite Eight and Final Four are similarly dominated by the nation’s best teams. All but one Final Four team over the last decade has been at least a No. 4 seed.

With such predictability in the closing rounds, it becomes harder to differentiate yourself from your peers in a large bracket contest. That means there is value in taking some calculated risks earlier in the tournament, while leaning on top seeds to advance toward the later rounds. (The smaller the pool you are in, the less necessary it is to take such risks, at least if your primary concern is finishing first.)

UCLA is the top overall seed, even if it isn’t the betting favorite. One of the best programs never to reach a Final Four, the Bruins could finally break through this season. Joining them as No. 1 seeds are South Carolina, USC and Texas. We will circle back to this group later, but before we do, a reminder: If you take the most popular title team, you have to be much closer to perfection with your other picks to win a bracket pool, while if you’re one of the only people with a less popular title pick, your margin of error expands.

Let’s go region by region and construct the perfect women’s bracket.

Birmingham 2

There shouldn’t be many surprises in this region.

No. 1 South Carolina, the defending champion, is again one of the favorites to win it all, thanks to its elite depth and dominant regular season. The Gamecocks have again turned their frontcourt into a strength, led by SEC tournament MVP Chloe Kitts. Senior guard Te-Hina Paopao has also been a key contributor, shooting 37 percent from behind the arc after leading the nation in three-point percentage a year ago. With a versatile guard rotation and recent statement wins over Texas, Oklahoma and Kentucky – the former a 19-point rout in the SEC title game – Dawn Staley’s squad looks primed for another championship run.

No. 2 Duke, No. 3 North Carolina and No. 4 Maryland all figure to be playing in the Sweet 16, with the only gate crasher being No. 10 Oregon, which should score a first-round upset over No. 7 Vanderbilt. The Ducks are led by former North Carolina star Deja Kelly, who is averaging 11.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. She and 6-foot-8 center Phillipina Kyei, a strong defender and rim protector, could cause Vanderbilt problems.

Birmingham 3

No. 1 Texas won a share of the SEC regular season title in its first year in that league. It boasts the nation’s third-best defense, per Her Hoop Stats, allowing 71 points per 100 possessions. Coach Vic Schaefer’s squad is physical and disciplined, but offensive consistency remains a concern. If leading scorer Madison Booker plus contributors Shay Holle and Jordan Lee can provide enough perimeter scoring, the Longhorns have the defensive foundation to earn their first Final Four appearance since 2003.

Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron form a lethal backcourt for No. 3 Notre Dame, which should have plenty of firepower to advance to the Elite Eight. Notre Dame’s late-season struggles have raised some concerns, but their guards keep them in the national title conversation. Hidalgo has been one of the best players in the country, averaging more than 22 points per game. The frontcourt remains a question mark, but if Liatu King and Maddy Westbeld are fully healthy, the Irish can return to the impressive form that saw them win 19 straight games earlier this season.

The wild card in this region might be No. 10 Nebraska. Senior Alexis Markowski, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2022, earned first team all-Big Ten honors after a fantastic season. She’s averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game with 3.5 wins shares earned, per Her Hoop Stats, putting her in the 95th percentile of players. Look for Markowski to guide the Huskers past Louisville and No. 2 TCU and into the Sweet 16.

Spokane 1

No. 1 UCLA avenged two regular season losses to USC with a win over its Southern California rivals in the Big Ten final. The Bruins are led by dominant center Lauren Betts. Betts, a 6-foot-7 force, is nearly unstoppable in the paint and provides elite rim protection. Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez and Londynn Jones add scoring punch, making UCLA a well-rounded contender and an easy pick for a Final Four run. Its only stiff competition should come from No. 3 LSU.

The Tigers finished third in the Southeastern Conference during the regular season and advanced to the SEC tournament semifinals, losing to Texas, 56-49. LSU went 8-4 against teams in the tournament field, with wins over N.C. State, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee (twice). LSU lost three of its last four games, and might be overlooked.

Two double-digit seeds to take note of in this region: No. 10 Harvard and No. 11 George Mason.

Harvard enters the tournament ranked 36th in Her Hoop Stats efficiency metric while its first-round opponent, No. 7 Michigan State, is only nine slots ahead. Harvard also likes to slow the pace, which often favors the underdog. George Mason - making its first NCAA tournament appearance – and its opening opponent, No. 6 Florida State, have an even narrower gap of just four spots, per Her Hoop ratings. The Patriots won 15 of their last 17 games, and claimed all three of their Atlantic 10 tournament games by double-digit margins. They are led by junior forward Zahirah Walton, who averages 15.1 points and 5.9 rebounds a game.

Spokane 4

No. 1 USC is the top seed in the region, but don’t dismiss No. 2 UConn’s chances. The Huskies, led by Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and freshman standout Sarah Strong, have reached the Final Four in every healthy season Bueckers has played – and in every tournament but one since 2008. Bueckers is averaging 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, with the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country. Spoiler alert: This is the year she adds a national title to her résumé.

And Connecticut’s Final Four berth won’t come at the expense of USC. Instead, let’s predict it’s No. 5 Kansas State that U-Conn. hurdles in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats were ranked as high as No. 8 in the polls after a 19-1 start. Then they lost center Ayoka Lee to a pair of foot injuries and floundered with a 7-6 finish to the season. Coach Jeff Mittie said he anticipates Lee playing in the tournament, which will help the Wildcats rely less on their 3-point shooting, reducing the volatility of their scoring. That could be enough to push them past No. 4 Kentucky and then USC.

A short-lived surprise will come from No. 10 South Dakota State defeating No. 7 Oklahoma State in the first round. South Dakota State’s Paige Meyer has averaged at least 10 points a game in all four of her collegiate seasons, and averages 12.0 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game this year. She and teammate Brooklyn Meyer (no relation) each earned first-team all-Summit League honors, as they did last year. The Jackrabbits are in the tournament for a third straight year, and upended USC in the opening round two years ago.

Final Four and beyond

UCLA, UConn, South Carolina and Texas are the most complete teams in the nation and the most likely Final Four participants. South Carolina’s elite defense and dominance in the paint give the Gamecocks a clear path to another deep tournament run. UCLA’s balance of athleticism, depth and defensive toughness should allow the Bruins to navigate a challenging region. Texas, fueled by its stellar backcourt and defensive intensity, has showed it can grind out wins against top competition. And UConn remains battle-tested as always, with a strong mix of experience and star power in Bueckers and Fudd.

In the final, UConn’s ability to control the tempo, its lengthy postseason experience and its ability to elevate its performance in crucial moments will give the Huskies the edge over Texas. Connecticut is essentially the tournament co-favorite, with South Carolina, but some of our riskier early-round picks will still let this bracket come out on top in even a larger tournament contest.