A Grip on Sports: A blind test reveals the NCAA’s selection committee had a myopic view and ended up with seedings only Mr. Magoo would love
A GRIP ON SPORTS • We’re going to play a game today. One with huge consequences. In other words, we are going to put you on the spot. And hope you do a better job than the NCAA men’s tournament’s selection committee.
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• Here are four schools who qualified for the tournament, either by winning their conference or by having a stellar resume throughout the season. We’re not going to put a name next to them. They will be schools A, B … you get the picture.
Rank them 1-4 based on their overall record, their ranking in the NCAA’s own evaluation tool (NET), their rankings in three analytical formulas (in order: Ken Pomeroy’s, Bart Torvik’s and Evan Miya’s) the committee considers, and their record in the top two quadrants in the NET – something the committee is supposed to value highly – along with their record in the bottom two quadrants.
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Team A: 29-5 – 49 – 51 – 60 – 39 – 11-3 – 18-2
Team B: 27-7 – 24 – 23 – 19 – 17 – 15-7 – 12-0
Team C: 24-9 – 29 – 31 – 39 – 37 – 16-9 – 8-0
Team D: 25-8 – 8 – 9 – 11 – 9 – 10-8 – 15-0
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Wait a minute, someone could argue (and millions do), numbers alone can’t tell the entire story. And they would be right – to some degree. But no one, especially not the members of the committee charged with seeding the 68-team tournament – and deciding which teams get in and which are left out, a task that adds probably another dozen – could ever watch every game from every school considered. There just isn’t enough time. So the “eye test” is out.
Judgments have to mainly come from numbers. After all, if you only saw Team A play their two best games and Team C’s worst five, how would you use the aforementioned “eye test” to rate them? You couldn’t.
OK, back to our exercise. Rank the teams 1-to-4, using the tools the committee is supposed to use … (Cue Jeopardy music.) … Done yet? OK. Here are the schools and their seeds:
Team A is Memphis, a mid-major conference champion with high-major visibility. The Tigers, who lost at home to barely-top-100-in-NET Arkansas State and on the road at No. 106 UAB, were given a five seed.
Team B is Louisville, one of four ACC teams the committee put in the tournament. The Cardinals were seeded eighth.
Team C is Oregon. The Ducks’ first season in the Big Ten resulted in an at-large berth. They were seeded fifth.
Team D is, of course, Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were seeded eighth.
It doesn’t make sense. In fact, the entire group of eight seeds, including two-time defending champion UConn and the SEC’s Mississippi State, arguably have just as good of resumes – or better – as all the five seeds, which also includes Clemson and Michigan.
Heck, two of Clemson’s six losses came to Louisville. And they lost at home to Georgia Tech, 109th in the NET.
This isn’t just a Gonzaga-got-ripped-off thing either – though that is true. It is a the-committee-did-an-awful-job-seeding critique, based solely on numbers the group is supposed to use. It matters. In a lot of ways. And allows one’s mind to wander to an odd place while trying to answer the question, “Why?”
It’s not a question anyone outside the room can speak to with authority. Speculation about having more-compelling second-round matchups or a bias for or against the tools the committee is given to help balance the conversation are just that, speculation. The gobbledy-gook the chairman, North Carolina’s athletic director, Bubba Cunningham – another huge can of worms there, as his not-worthy Tar Heels were included in the tournament – spouted on CBS didn’t help.
It never does.
The problem is obvious. There are too many external pressures on a committee like this. Too many variables the members must consider, too much riding on the outcome. The seeding decisions this year are cattywampus. Indefensible.
It is disappointing the committee is handed a herd of thoroughbred-level information and argues itself into creating a dromedary. Humps, bumps and all.
And all of us, who watch and sweat over each game, are in for a lumpy ride.
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WSU: The Cougar women’s basketball team, and Gonzaga’s, had no hope of another NCAA trip. Washington State, however, is playing in the WNIT. The Bulldogs, WCC regular-season champions, were invited to the NCAA-sponsored WBIT. They will host the University of Texas San Antonio on Thursday. Greg Lee covers both pieces of news in this story. … Spokane will be home to two of the NCAA women’s four regionals in a little over a week. Jim Allen covers the big names that just may be headed here. There is also a national story or two about the women’s tournament in the S-R to pass along. … Elsewhere in the (current, old and future) Pac-12 and the nation, the NCAA field is dissected by just about everyone. Good and bad. And that means we have a bunch of stories we could have linked. We were selective and tried to keep it simple, though we did link every story that ran in the S-R. … In case you are wondering, every one of the S-R’s NCAA-related stories can be found here. … Jon Wilner has his thoughts on the winners and losers from Selection Sunday. … Yes, Oregon is a five seed. The Ducks face Liberty in the first round. … Oregon State will play in the new College Basketball Crown event in Las Vegas. … Arizona is a four seed. In Seattle. Where it may have to face the Ducks. Nice. … UCLA heads back East, again, to open its NCAA tourney experience against Utah State. … Colorado State is rolling at just the right time. Will its coach end up in Minnesota after the Rams’ run is done? Maybe Nico Medved should call Dan Monson before he makes a decision. … Boise State did not make the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2021. … Utah State did as an at-large selection and will play UCLA. … So did San Diego State. … On the women’s side, we could have put the Oregon State news in the WCC section below. After all, the Beavers did earn the conference’s automatic – and only – bid to the NCAA. But we have it here. They are a 14 seed. … Washington earned an at-large NCAA berth but are in the play-in game. … Oregon also earned a spot. … No one is happy with the seeding for the women either. Case in point: USC, which is a No. 1 seed. But the last one and could face UConn here. … No complaining from UCLA, which is the No. 1 overall seed. … California is an eighth seed in the tournament. … Utah has a tough road. … Arizona is in the WBIT, facing Northern Arizona. … Colorado is a No. 1 seed in the same tournament. … In football news, recruiting never stops. Just ask Oregon State. … Colorado wants to be better on the edge. … Arizona wants to be better on special teams.
Gonzaga: The Zags’ annual NCAA trip never gets old, though sometimes, like this year, it can get a little odd. But the S-R covers it the same way. We start with Dave Boling’s column, in which an old fogey – my peer group too as illustrated by the cartoon reference in the headline – uses newfangled stats, formulas and algorithms to make an argument the Zags were handed a raw deal. … Jim Meehan has the news story about their seed and destination. … Theo Lawson delves into the destination, Wichita, Kansas, and the GU players’ recollection of past visits. … We can also pass along this graphical look at their opponent, Georgia. … Elsewhere in the WCC (and there is a lot for once), men’s regular-season champion Saint Mary’s was seeded seventh and will play No. 10 Vanderbilt in Cleveland. … USF and Santa Clara will continue their season in the NIT. … The Portland women, who shared the regular-season title with Gonzaga, is also sharing the same postseason tournament.
EWU and Idaho: Around the Big Sky, Montana’s men, seeded 14th, will face Wisconsin. … Northern Arizona will play in the CBI. … The Montana State women have a game with Ohio State.
Chiefs: If Spokane wants to find itself playing in the season-ending Memorial Cup, it will have to figure out how to defeat Everett consistently. That’s eluded the Chiefs thus far. They fell to the Silvertips 2-1 Sunday in the Arena. Dave Nichols has the story.
Velocity: For much of the match at windy ONE Spokane Stadium it looked as if Spokane would start its second season with a victory. Then Knoxville scored late and the Velocity settled for a 2-2 draw. John Allison has the coverage.
Seahawks: John Schneider understands why Hawk fans want an improved offensive line. … The numbers behind Sam Darnold’s contract are coming to light.
Mariners: Is Dylan Moore more valuable as a utility player? … Bryce Miller looks ready for the season to start.
Kraken: Winnipeg came to Seattle bringing along former Kraken Brandon Tanev and went home with a 3-2 overtime win.
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• We are back with more links. It was a busy morning with a lot to get through. Too many more of these days and maybe it will be time to really retire. And go visit Mike Leach’s old haunts in Key West. Until later …