With quality metrics & average resume, Gonzaga presents ‘interesting seeding dilemma’ for NCAA committee entering Selection Sunday

Stu Jackson is taking a break from his full-time job as commissioner of the West Coast Conference this week to do some seasonal work in Carmel, Indiana.

As a first-year member of the NCAA’s selection committee, Jackson will be a key decision-maker, providing input on every team as the group whittles the NCAA Tournament field down to the magic number of 68.

Well, just about every team.

When the committee arrives at Gonzaga, the automatic bid from the WCC, Jackson is kindly excused from Selection HQ until conversations shift back to another team. Same goes for the Saint Mary’s Gaels, who are also expected to represent the conference as an at-large team.

“I have no advocacy for them at all,” Jackson said Monday during the WCC Tournament, where he spent a handful of days before catching a flight out of Las Vegas on Tuesday to meet with fellow selection committee members at Hotel Carmichael just north of Indianapolis. “It is actually quite funny in going through the simulation when they are speaking about one of your institutions, whether you are an athletics director or a commissioner, they send you out of the room.

“It’s happened many times before because there is a buzzer to buzz you back in the room. When you return to the room, it’s as if you walked in on a conversation where people are talking about you, because no one says anything.”

Policy also prevents Jackson from offering an educated guess of where the Zags will land – seed or location – before their 26th consecutive trip (27th consecutive berth) to the NCAA Tournament next week.

“Where they are seeded, it is fascinating and something I love,” Jackson said of the Zags and Gaels. “It’s based on a variety of factors but to their credit, their resumes, their body of work are very favorable from a metric standpoint any way you cut it.”

Gonzaga has been a compelling case study for the NCAA selection committee, boasting some of the best analytics in the country but also a win-loss record that may could the Zags down a seed line or two from where they’d potentially be otherwise.

“We’re an interesting seeding dilemma,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few told NCAA March Madness reporter Andy Katz in an interview posted to X after Tuesday’s WCC title game. “Not that we’re going to get too caught up in that. Put us at the 13, whatever. I don’t care. The fact of the matter is that we’re in.”

Bracketology experts are still undecided on where to stick Few’s team – no, a 13 isn’t play for the Zags, or alone anything close to it – but the strongest possibilities appear to be a No. 6 or 7 seed following GU’s triumph in the WCC title game, which gave the Zags their fifth Quad 1 win and a nice resume bump heading into Selection Sunday.

By picking up Quad 1 wins at Santa Clara, against San Francsico at the Chase Center and versus Saint Mary’s on Tuesday, Gonzaga improved its record in such games to 5-5. It still leaves GU tied for the fewest Q1 wins among top-20 NCAA NET teams.

Working in Gonzaga’s favor is the fact Few’s team still hasn’t lost in blowout fashion, with five regulation losses coming by an average margin of 4.5 points and none of them by more than seven. Three other losses came in overtime.

The Zags grade out well in other predictive metrics the committee will consider, like NET (No. 8), KenPom (No. 10), BPI (No. 10) and Bart Torvik (No. 11), but many of GU’s best wins haven’t aged well.

Baylor, San Diego State and Indiana, all teams GU beat during nonconference play, could be uncomfortable on Sunday, likely sweating out the bracket reveal after losing in their respective conference tournaments.

“There’s just different flaws with each of these teams, otherwise they’d be higher. Gonzaga included,” said Rocco Miller, a college basketball bracketologist and analyst for Bracketeer.org and the Field of 68. “Then you’re just asking yourself and debating. We’ve been through this a bunch with the mocks and we’ve heard the regular committee members talk about it, too. What are the things you’re willing to live with?

“And I think Gonzaga, that’s where they’re benefitting because I think you can live with when you just start to understand their story, losing these close games, nobody’s been able to dominate them. I think that helps a lot.”

Bracket forecasts were fluid with various conference tournament semifinal and championship games taking place on Saturday, but Miller’s most recent projection has No. 6 Gonzaga slated to open in Milwaukee against the winner of a First Four game between two No. 11 seeds, North Carolina and Xavier.

“I think the one thing that makes Gonzaga a unicorn is, even though the WCC was much better and there’s more results this year than before, is these SEC like Ole Miss or the Big 12 with BYU, they’re looking at Missouri, Kansas,” Miller said. “Those teams have a lot more results to look at, so they’re going to probably have a lot more bad but also more good. So, where do you slot Gonzaga? That’s where the dilemma comes in.”

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who updated his bracket Saturday afternoon, penciled Gonzaga in as a No. 7 seed, opening the Big Dance against No. 10 Oklahoma in Providence, Rhode Island.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also forecasts a Gonzaga-Oklahoma matchup, but under different circumstances. Palm’s newest bracket lists the Zags as a No. 8 seed facing the No. 9 Sooners. The winner would play No. 1 Duke in Raleigh, North Carolina, just 25 miles from the Blue Devils’ campus in Durham, N.C.

“I would say the two teams in the men’s bracket are at least the hardest for me to seed are Memphis and Gonzaga and they have the opposite issues,” Lunardi said during a media call on Wednesday. “Gonzaga has great metrics and a so-so resume. Memphis has a great resume and so-so metrics, and in my experience the committee tends to split the difference in these cases.”

Wherever Gonzaga lands, history suggests the Zags will outperform their seed. That’s occurred in 11 of the past 14 NCAA Tournaments, with 2013, 2019 and 2022 being the only exceptions during that stretch.

“They’re going to be significantly underseeded, it would appear,” Pomeroy said. “But they’re certainly capable of playing, like a two, three, four seed, something like that.”