How the 3-ball has influenced Gonzaga’s season and past WCC and NCAA tournaments

The last time we did a deep dive into Gonzaga’s 3-point shooting was in mid-December after the Zags had gone through a cold stretch.

GU was at 33.7% from 3, ranked in the 180s out of 355 teams nationally, roughly one-third through the season.

Update after a recent hot streak beyond the arc: The Zags have made progress at 35.3% and rank No. 99 nationally but remain in danger of the program’s lowest percentage (35.3 in 2010) since the 3-pointer arrived in college hoops in 1986-87.

Why bring it up now? Because 3-point accuracy often has been a telling factor this season – 37.1% in GU’s 23 wins, 30.2% in eight losses – and past successes and failures in the postseason.

Gonzaga, which plays Monday night in the West Coast Conference Tournament semifinals, is 66-17 in the conference tournament, including 52-6 under coach Mark Few.

GU has connected on 38.6% of 3-pointers in 83 WCC tourney games, with John Rillie, Kevin Pangos, Kyle Wiltjer and Killian Tillie among those putting on memorable shooting displays.

A year ago, Gonzaga shot better on 3s (11 of 20) than inside the arc while handling San Francisco in the semifinals. The Zags were just 2 of 11 behind the arc in a title-game loss to Saint Mary’s.

Most bracket projections have the Zags in the NCAA Tournament field as a No. 8 or 9 seed.

Guard Nolan Hickman, who is at a career-best 44.4% 3-point clip in his senior season, didn’t need to see the stats from Gonzaga’s recent NCAA Tournament losses to know how 3s influence March Madness outcomes.

“Definitely it’s important, really important,” Hickman said. “Down the stretch when you get to big games, you gotta step up and make big shots. That’s something I really want to take pride in this year, knowing that I’m a senior and I’m going to be the one people are looking to to knock down the big shot.”

“Just knowing that and going into every game with that mindset is the best approach.”

Gonzaga is just 30 of 123 (24.4%) on 3s in six season-ending losses since 2018. GU’s best effort in that span was 6 of 19 (31.6%) in an 80-68 Sweet 16 loss to Purdue last March.

The Zags suffered their all-time low (2 of 20, 10%) in a blowout loss to eventual 2023 national champion UConn. While the Zags made 51% of their shots in the 2021 title-game loss to Baylor, they hit just 5 of 17 (29.4%) from distance.

GU made at least 33.3% of 3s in the five games leading up to Baylor. In the Zags’ run to the 2017 national championship game, they were just 26% through the first two games before nailing 45.8% in the last four, including Jordan Mathews’ clutch 3-pointer that lifted Gonzaga past West Virginia in the Sweet 16.

Still, 3-point accuracy is just one of several key statistical indicators. The inverse of the 2021 title game loss was when GU made 42.1% from deep but a season-low 33.9% overall in the 2017 title game loss to North Carolina.

Gonzaga has managed a 2-4 record when shooting in the teens from 3 in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Indiana in 2006 and UCLA in 2015.

Many of GU’s deepest tournament runs ended with tough 3-point shooting games, including UConn in 1999 (23.8%), Purdue in 2000 (25%), UCLA in 2006 (30%), North Carolina in 2009 (30.4%), Duke in 2015 (20%), Florida State in 2018 (25%), Texas Tech in 2019 (26.9%), Arkansas in 2022 (23.8%) and UConn in 2023 (10%).

GU closed the regular season by scoring 95 points in different ways in wins over Santa Clara and San Francisco. The Zags made just six 3s and shot 27.3% against the Broncos but torched USF for 11 3s at a 45.8% rate. The Dons sagged off Gonzaga’s Ben Gregg and Michael Ajayi and Gregg connected on three 3s en route to 23 points.

USF tried similar tactics in last year’s WCC semifinals against Gregg and Anton Watson to devote more attention on Graham Ike in the post. Gregg responded with four 3s in the first seven minutes of the second half as GU pulled away.

“I think we have the best big man duo in the country in Braden (Huff) and Graham, so we’re going to get post points every game,” said Gregg, who is 10 of 17 on 3s in four career WCC Tournament games. “That’s not a worry of ours.”

Gregg noted that it is worrisome if GU isn’t hitting shots when posts are drawing a crowd before adding, “Having everybody step up and make 3s is going to be huge for us down the stretch.”

GU enters the WCC Tournament with some momentum from 3 after hitting nearly 40% over its last five games.

“It just opens up a lot more for us,” said point guard Ryan Nembhard, who has drained a career-high 40.7% on 3-pointers. “We score like 50 points per game in the paint. If we can knock 3s, it adds another dimension.”