Super Bowl betting tips, strategies and best practices
![Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce (87) hugs coach Andy Reid as Tammy Reid looks on after the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII, defeating the the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35, on Feb. 12, 2023, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Tribune News Service)](https://thumb.spokesman.com/uO6q6eDqVn9RLDznlEJuDvMVKgE=/600x0/media.spokesman.com/graphics/2018/07/sr-loader.png)
The Super Bowl is not just the biggest football game of the year – it’s the biggest betting event.
For beginners and seasoned bettors, navigating the vast menu of Super Bowl betting options can feel overwhelming, but understanding key factors and strategies can help you find value and place smarter wagers.
In addition to the point spread and game total, there will be other team wagers available such as total team points, number of touchdowns scored, which team will score first, whether there will be a safety or the total number of combined sacks. Player props – passing yards, touchdowns or receptions – will be plentiful, too.
This article will explore tips and strategies tailored to maximizing your success for each on Super Bowl Sunday. My colleague Matt Bonesteel and I will have specific Super Bowl prop bets we like once the full prop menu gets released later this week, along with our pick for the game.
Be mindful of key numbers when betting team props like the point spread: The most common team props are the point spread and total. The Kansas City Chiefs opened as a 1½-point favorite and were bet up to a two-point favorite. Since the scoring structure of American football – three points for a field goal and six points for a touchdown before the extra point, which is worth one point, or a two-point play – scoring differentials clump around certain key numbers.
That makes betting on the NFL different from wagering on other sporting events: The key numbers should almost always dictate your approach to wagering on weekly point spreads. For example, favorites of one or two points tend to win by three or lose by three most often. In fact, since 2002, there is a better chance they win or lose by 21 points than winning by exactly two points. That means there are two ideal ways to wager on this year’s Super Bowl spread: either back the Chiefs and lay the two points, or take the Eagles money line.
The total opened anywhere from 48½ to 50 depending on the sportsbook, but has since settled at 49½ at most shops. Historically speaking, totals this high with a narrow favorite don’t go over much. In fact, since 2002, the over is 17-30-1, missing by a little more than four points per contest, per data from TruMedia.
But it’s worth noting that the last Super Bowl featuring the Eagles and Chiefs (Super Bowl LVII), just two seasons ago, saw Kansas City favored by 1½ with a total of 51½, and it went over.
So what should you do about the total in this year’s Super Bowl? I’d wait and see if the number gets pushed toward 50½. At that number, the fair-value price based on my modeling is -118, meaning you wager $118 to win $100. If you can find under 50½ at -110 it’s an edge of 2%. That might not sound like a lot, but in an efficient market like a Super Bowl total, it is good.
Bet player prop overs early – and unders closer to kickoff: A good rule of thumb when betting player props is to play overs early and unders late. The public likes to see things happen and will typically bet overs far more often than unders. This will push the prop up closer to kickoff, allowing you to get a better number if playing the under.
It’s also good to know how each team does against each position group. For example, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had his receiving yards prop open at 65½ yards. The Eagles, however, are one of the best in limiting opposing tight end production, allowing an average of 32.8 receiving yards per contest to starting tight ends – with half of them totaling 24 yards or less. It’s important to remember that sportsbooks are using the median, or midpoint value, to make their line, not a simple average. To convert a mean projection to a usable median you either need to build your own simulation or use one that is available online, like at Unabated.
One market I steer clear of is the anytime touchdown props because of its high takeout. You could be paying a commission as high as 30% to the house on these bets, making it more difficult to get a fair price.
Line shopping is the best thing you can do to improve profitability: Line shopping is crucial in sports betting because it maximizes your potential profit by ensuring you get the best odds or point spreads available. Different sportsbooks often offer slightly varying lines, and even a small difference can significantly impact your long-term success. For example, a line at -105 instead of -110 saves money over time because you are risking less to win the same amount. Additionally, shopping for the best number can be the difference between winning and losing a bet, especially with key numbers in spreads or totals. Sharp bettors treat line shopping as an essential part of their strategy.
You’d be surprised how much different prices and prop totals will be during the Super Bowl. At the time of this writing, there were three rushing yard props available for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, with different prices for each. DraftKings had it at 112½, Caesar’s at 114½ and FanDuel at 116½.
Sometimes the differences between the numbers offered at two sportsbooks make it possible to establish a middle, which is when you place wagers on both sides of a game at different lines, creating an opportunity to win both bets.
For example, betting Barkley over 112½ rushing yards at one shop and under 116½ someplace else allows you to win both if his rushing yard total finishes between 113 and 116 yards.
Be frugal with your bankroll and avoid the risk of ruin: This is essential for long-term success in sports betting. Without proper discipline, even the most knowledgeable bettors can quickly deplete their funds due to variance and bad streaks. Bankroll management helps you minimize losses during downturns, control emotions and avoid reckless wagers.
By betting a consistent, small percentage of your bankroll on each wager, you safeguard yourself from going broke and ensure you can continue betting through inevitable swings. View their bankroll as a business investment and prioritize steady growth over short-term gains.
Only bet what you can afford to lose. This protects your financial stability and keeps betting fun rather than stressful. Bet a small percentage of your bankroll ( 1 to 3%) on every wager to avoid overexposure on a single game. Record every wager to analyze performance, identify strengths or weaknesses, and stay accountable to your strategy.