MAGA is a big drag on the Washington GOP, even in red parts of the state

SEATTLE — Chad Magendanz is a computer science teacher who was noodling around with some numbers the other day, and he could scarcely believe what the screen was telling him.

He’s also a Republican, from Issaquah. So it happened he was looking into some local election data.

“It’s quite surprising,” he told me. “I think these results are a strong signal of where politics is headed in this state, at least in the short term.”

Magendanz, a former legislator who just lost a race to a Democrat in the Eastside suburbs, was aware that he had nevertheless run far ahead of his own party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump. GOPers outpacing Trump was expected in bluer parts of the state, where Trump is especially loathed.

But when he looked at all 97 contested races across the state where Republicans had faced Democrats — including legislative and congressional races — he was floored.

“Trump did worse than all the Republican candidates on the ballot,” Magendanz says. “Except for two.”

Ninety-five out of 97 local GOP candidates got a higher percentage of the vote than Trump did in their districts.

The two who did not were both Trump acolytes. One was a little-known Congressional challenger in the 2nd District named Cody Hart, who listed his party affiliation on the ballot as “MAGA Republican.” The other was Joe Kent, the Trump-endorsed challenger in the 3rd Congressional District of southwest Washington.

Those outperforming Trump included well-known Republicans, like Dave Reichert, who outran Trump by 5.3% statewide in his run for governor and still lost. As well as complete unknowns — like a candidate for state senate named Al Rosenthal, who was walloped in a Mercer Island district by 33 points, but still managed to outpace Trump there by 9.

This pattern held, surprisingly, across every nook and cranny of the state. Trump trailed local Republicans in even the reddest precincts of Eastern Washington. The most high-profile example: New U.S. Rep. Michael Baumgartner, R-Spokane, outran Trump in that district by seven points, though Baumgartner had never run for federal office before.

All of this is unusual because Trump wasn’t some failed also-ran. He just won the presidency, including the national popular vote.

“There’s an expectation that a national candidate, a winning one, would lift up the local party, even in a blue state,” Magendanz said. “You can’t ride his coattails, because he doesn’t have any.”

Magendanz himself outpaced Trump by 9.3 points, but still lost his 5th Legislative District race by about 5.

He was of two minds about his finding. Local Republicans are beaten down and out of power in the state, but they might be holding up better than it seems. When you’re running 2 to 12 points ahead of the winning national presidential candidate, everywhere, that’s a sign of relative political strength.

So it could be a lot worse for the local GOP. Call it riding out the perfect storm.

On the other hand: The forecast calls for four more years of a Trump maelstrom.

“Nothing could be better news for local Republicans than that Trump will be gone in four years,” Magendanz said. “There were ‘generic Republicans’ with zero name ID, who ran no ads, who got more votes than Trump in their districts.”

The election data suggests the local GOP could be dragged down to more losses in the meantime.

There are five red districts where Republicans swept all the legislative races, yet Democrat Kamala Harris carried the presidential vote. Two of these were in supposed Trump Country, east of the Cascades.

These were the 12th and 14th Districts of Central Washington. Harris also won the 17th, centered on Skamania County along the Columbia River; the 35th of Mason County; and the 25th of Pierce County — GOP districts all.

Meanwhile no Democrat at the state legislative level represents a district that Trump won.

So what does all this mean?

It means we’re one outlier state, that’s for sure. Trump and MAGA are even more unpopular here than people already thought — including among many Republican-leaning voters. Tens of thousands of them in all parts of the state passed on backing him, and then proceeded to vote for GOP candidates down-ballot.

The GOP state legislator who trumped Trump the most in this way was Rep. Drew Stokesbary, of Auburn. He ran 11.9% ahead of Trump in his 31st Legislative District. He’s a moderate who won reelection and is the state House minority leader.

Barring some wild turn in Trump’s story arc — like, say, he pivots to pursuing universal health care instead of invading Greenland — the local GOP is probably doomed in the short run. But it would do well to listen to Stokesbary for a path out of the wilderness, not the MAGA extremes.

As for the Democrats, their biggest weakness and biggest strength have turned out to be the same thing.

Trump makes them so blind with craziness and rage, they often lose their bearings and overplay their hand. But the way home, to yet more election victories around here, seems clear: Just stand aside and watch the Trump anchor drag.