Analysis: The good, bad and future as Kraken hit midpoint of season

SEATTLE – The 17-21-3 Kraken hit the halfway point of the 2024-25 season with a 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Monday night. It would be a modern-day NHL marvel if the Kraken rallied out of their current situation, went on a tear and made the playoffs.

With the team headed out on a five-game road trip, Kraken beat reporters Kate Shefte and Tim Booth finally remove the gloves.

The good?

Shefte: I’ll keep asking until you or the readers tell me to chill. Lead us off with a Pearl Jam quote, Tim.

Booth: How about this one from Scared of Fear: “You’re hurting yourself, it’s plain to see; I think you’re hurting yourself just to hurt me.”

That’s seems an appropriate description for all the self-inflicted mistakes we’ve seen the Kraken make through the first half of the season to leave the players, coaches and fans feeling frustrated and upset at the underwhelming results.

Consider the progressive slide we’ve seen over the past three seasons. Two seasons ago, they were 25-12-4 with 54 points and handed Boston its first regulation home loss of the season in game No. 41. The playoffs were almost assured.

A season ago, the Kraken were 18-14-9 with 45 points and in the middle of a nine-game win streak when the midpoint arrived. That record and point total right now would have the Kraken in playoff position.

This time around, the Kraken hit the midway point of the season with 37 points and only five from the last 10 games. Moneypuck.com estimates they have a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs as of Tuesday morning – only Chicago and San Jose have worse odds.

The math is bad. The team isn’t much better at the moment.

Shefte: But since we promised “good,” there’s some for the future. Happy 21st birthday to center Shane Wright, NHL regular. His rookie season hasn’t been productive enough to give one-time draft destination Montreal FOMO, but it has been perfectly fine.

Booth: He’s on pace for 16 goals and 20 assists in his first full season. Those aren’t overwhelming numbers, but if everyone else was performing to standard around him, those would be exactly the kind of numbers the Kraken needed from his rookie campaign. His play has gotten progressively better, especially once he settled onto the line with Eeli Tolvanen and Oliver Bjorkstrand.

Shefte: Exactly. He’s had one major hiccup so far, a multigame benching where coach Dan Bylsma seemed to know he needed a change in perspective. He sat, he watched, he’s been much better. And it’s not just about points. I like what I see from him up ice. Advancing the puck, putting himself in good spots, making sound choices. There are turnovers and iffy numbers but Lord knows that applies to just about everyone.

Let’s also shout out defenseman Ryker Evans, 23, who also made the full-time jump and has been just fine mostly, and quite exceptional in spurts. He filled in admirably during Vince Dunn’s long-term injury and has been stuck with third-pairing minutes and responsibilities since then. But we like what we see.

The bad?

Shefte: Where to start? The collective underperformance is crippling this team. It’s Andre Burakovsky not becoming the high scorer they thought he would be. The scariest scouting reports on Chandler Stephenson having some truth. Oliver Bjorkstrand’s butterfingers. Matty Beniers going on these in-season journeys of self-discovery. Jared McCann is entitled to a cold streak every once in a blue moon, but they can’t afford it. Streaky success, at best, everywhere. You can turn these puzzle pieces around and around – that’s a juggling the lines metaphor, y’all – but sometimes they just don’t fit together.

As far as big-picture performance, they kept doing just enough – a surprising road trip, a decent homestand – to keep us believing that maybe they’d turn it around. But it’s 2023-24 Pt. 2: Different coach, similar shtick.

Booth: This team doesn’t usually win without its defenseman scoring. Should the blue liners be picking up assists? Absolutely. But relying on defensemen to get you goals is not a sustainable model for success. In only six of their 17 wins did a defenseman not get a goal.

I also don’t think we took fully into account at the time the impact Jordan Eberle’s injury would have not just on his role but the players around him. Including the game Eberle got hurt, McCann had eight goals and 12 assists in the first 17 games. In the 24 games since, he has five goals and four assists. The Kraken survived – barely – being without Dunn for most of the first six weeks, but the Eberle absence seems to have been more damaging.

The future?

Shefte: If the Kraken fall into the seller category, and there’s little doubt they will, it’s finally time to commit. I’d like to see some serious movement at the trade deadline. It will hurt – these are guys who have been here from the beginning. But if it isn’t bolted to the ground (i.e. on a long-term deal) it should have a price tag.

Booth: Any player on an expiring contract should be moved. Retain salary and move Brandon Tanev and Yanni Gourde for assets. Frankly, any player on the roster set to become a free agent after next season should be considered a movable piece at this point, which would bring Jaden Schwartz, Jamie Oleksiak, Bjorkstrand and Tolvanen into the conversation.

Shefte: All of this reads harsh, but as everyone likes to say when times are tough, this is a business. Finding complementary pieces isn’t enough anymore.

This larger Kraken core clicked exactly once – we all remember when – because almost to a man, everyone played above reasonable expectations. It was, as I wrote at the time, a perfect storm. It blew over and it’s off to sea somewhere. That wasn’t entirely unexpected. Where this franchise is, with an NBA return looking like “when” instead of “if,” it’s time to quit puttering along.

The make-or-break season was supposed to be this season. It’s discouraging to see it go sideways by Christmas.

Booth: There are 4½ weeks before the two-week break before the Four Nations Faceoff arrives. At this point, anything less than 24 points out of those 16 games probably isn’t enough to get back into the playoff conversation.

When the lost season is official, do you go the route of San Jose and tear everything down, bring up the kids from Coachella Valley and rebuild around the talented young players that have been stocked up? That’s one option, although that might not sit well with veterans who are signed to extended deals and expected to win.

In the context of all this, should we be discussing the role and status of general manager Ron Francis moving forward? He’s ultimately responsible for putting together a roster that from a results standpoint has regressed. Injuries haven’t helped. But neither has significant underperformance by players carrying heavy contracts he signed. Big money and bad performance don’t work in a salary cap league.

Whatever the route management chooses to go, this is already looking like another lost season at the midway point for a team that should be far better than the performance on the ice.