Will WA reach its climate goals? New report shows big step forward, followed by setback

BELLINGHAM – Washington took a big step toward meeting its long-term carbon emissions goals in 2020, according to a new report released by the Washington state Department of Ecology. A 2008 law required the state to lower its carbon emissions to 1990 levels – 93.9 million metric tons – by 2020.

Not only did the state hit its emissions goal, it measured 88.3 million metric tons, 6% lower than the self-imposed limit. But what does that mean for Washington’s progress overall?

State carbon emissions fall in 2020

Greenhouse gas emissions in Washington fell by nearly 14% from 2019 to 2020, according to the report.

The sharp drop represents a significant step toward the state’s carbon emissions goals. But experts warn against reading too far into the 2020 numbers.

“You can see some pretty clear trends happening. But I think looking at the 2021 levels in particular might be a little more representative, because what we saw in 2020 was really affected by the pandemic,” Caitlin Krenn, climate and clean energy director at environmental nonprofit Washington Conservation Action, told McClatchy in a phone call.

In 2021, emissions bounced back slightly, rising by 8.8% to 96.1 million metric tons and exceeding the state’s emissions limit by 2.3%.

“We expected to see a rise in emissions coming out of the pandemic,” stated Laura Watson, director of Washington’s Department of Ecology, in a news release announcing the findings.

That number still falls well below 2019 levels, when the state measured 102.4 million metric tons of carbon emissions after a decade below the 100 million threshold. It’s roughly on par with emissions levels in years leading up to 2019.

Green energy leads long-term decline

Despite the rise in statewide emissions in 2021, there are reasons to be optimistic about the long-term trends. 2021 emission levels were still 14% below the state’s highest-recorded levels, 111.9 million metric tons in 2000.

Even if overall emissions have only fallen slightly since then, the state’s population and economy have grown significantly in that time. The state’s Office of Financial Management’s 2024 estimate puts Washington’s population just over 8 million, up from 4.9 million in 1990. Carbon emissions per capita have fallen by 35.9% since 1990, and by 64.2% when measured relative to the state’s gross domestic product, according to the DOE.

“That’s really significant, and that shows we’re really making progress,” Krenn said.

The report also showed both the agriculture and electricity sectors making significant strides. Emissions from electricity in particular fell by 15% between 2019 and 2021.

“We’re also seeing promising trends in energy efficiency, clean vehicle adoption and renewable energy production that will only grow stronger as a result of the climate policies Washington has put in place,” Watson stated.

Will state meet long-term climate goals?

The report highlights just how far the state needs to go if it wants to meet its emissions goals. By 2030, the state aims to lower its emissions to under 51.65 million metric tons. That number falls to 28.17 million by 2040 and 4.67 million by 2050.

“What I’m seeing when I read this report is that we are making progress as a state and we still have a long way to go,” Krenn said.

Several policies that aim to help Washington reach those goals didn’t go into effect until after 2020.

The Clean Energy Transformation Act, which aims to remove greenhouse gases from the state’s electricity supply, went into effect in 2021. The Climate Commitment Act, which caps the amount of emissions that businesses in the state can collectively use, took effect in 2023. That cap will be lowered each year, in line with the state’s emissions goals. Also known as “cap and invest,” the program was upheld after a 2024 ballot initiative sought to repeal it.

According to Krenn, the policy is a start but won’t single-handedly get Washington to its climate goals.

“I think from these numbers we can say we’re making progress as a state,” Krenn said. “We have climate policies in place that are going to get us closer to our long-term goals, but we still need to do more.”

Krenn notes that Washington needs “to ensure … that Climate Commitment Act dollars – which Washington voters voted overwhelmingly to protect last November – continue to be allocated to projects that will reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and drive down emissions.”

If Washington wants to reach its long-term climate goals, new policies will need to be implemented down the road, Krenn said.

“We need to continue leading the country on passing new policies,” Krenn said. “We’re not there year. We don’t have a plan to reach net-zero by 2045. We need to continue to do more.”

State law requires the report to be prepared every other year, so the breakdown released two years from now could shed some light onto the early effects of these policies.