Consumers pay eggs-tra as bird flu affects grocery prices

Judy Simon noticed something strange during her Thursday evening grocery trip in Redmond, Washington. The shelves held no chicken eggs, only a few cartons of quail eggs.

Limited and increasingly expensive egg options for grocery shoppers across the region and the nation are becoming common amid the ongoing avian influenza outbreak. The Consumer Price Index shows a roughly 45% increase from January to November 2024 in the U.S. city average price for a dozen large grade-A eggs.

In Seattle, a dozen eggs at the grocery store consistently cost shoppers upward of $6.99 and some grocers are now limiting customers to a maximum of two cartons.

The current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) began in February 2022 when the U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed bird flu in a domestic commercial flock. Two commercial flocks and 51 backyard flocks, totaling 1.9 million affected birds, have been impacted in Washington state, according to federal data.

The current strain of avian influenza is labeled as a low risk to public health by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to the Washington State Department of Agriculture, “no infected birds or eggs have entered the food supply,” and there are currently no confirmed or suspected cases on dairy farms in Washington state.

Eggs and poultry remain safe to eat, and cooking to an internal temperature of 165 degrees Fahrenheit kills viruses, including avian influenza A.

Significant price increases or the outright unavailability of eggs “could definitely have an impact on protein intake, especially for families and individuals,” said Simon, a registered dietitian nutritionist with UW Medicine who finds people across all socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds rely on eggs as an easy source of protein.

A large egg contains about 6 grams of protein per serving and can serve as a key source of nutrients including vitamin D and choline. Given their refrigerated shelf life of three to five weeks, Simon encourages people to buy eggs when they are available.

“People should make sure to purchase them and not wait to see if they’re going to go lower,” Simon said. “Because I don’t think the prices are going to go down.”

Simon also recommended people consider alternative protein sources such as Greek yogurt and tofu when eggs are unavailable.

Similar price surges and availability issues also occurred during the December 2014 to June 2015 avian influenza outbreak, which affected more than 50 million chickens and turkeys. Kevin Snekvik, executive director of the Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory, said a key difference between the outbreaks is how the virus is spreading this time.

In 2015, the virus spread from production facility to production facility, meaning appropriate cleaning, training and quarantine measures were enough to control the spread. This time, more than 40 species of wild birds have been infected and are carrying the virus around. About 130 million birds have been affected since February 2022.

“That’s the difference in why we’re not seeing things slow down as fast as what we saw back in 2015,” Snekvik said.

There is no cure for poultry infected with the disease. Snekvik described it as “amazingly deadly and amazingly fast,” often wiping out entire farms in days.

During 2024’s only commercial outbreak in October, the birds from a Franklin County farm were brought in on a Friday. Testing confirmed the same day that the birds had highly pathogenic avian influenza.

“Within about 24 hours, they saw an increase in mortality to a few thousand birds,” Snekvik said. “And by the second day, over 100,000 birds were dead. And by the Monday after that, multiple houses were affected with multiple hundreds of thousands of birds dead.”

In the aftermath of an outbreak, facilities undergo extensive testing to ensure they can operate disease-free before bringing in a new population. The process takes about three to four months, according to Snekvik.

Although there was only one commercial outbreak in Washington last year, the unpredictable nature of the virus is impacting local farmers. At Food Lifeline, a hunger relief organization, the price per dozen rose from $2.41 to $5.71 on Jan. 1 as locked-in pricing from the final quarter of 2024 expired.

“Farmers and egg distributors are hesitant to lock in pricing because of the volatility of the market and the egg supply currently,” said Casey Crane, Food Lifeline’s director of food resources and production.