A Grip on Sports: As the college basketball season wears on, one has to ask why the local men’s teams had to revert to the mean in such a negative way

A GRIP ON SPORTS • As the first full week of February dawns, we are forced to ask a crucial mathematical question. Or a basketball question, if that’s how you want to frame it. Are we seeing a reversion to the mean for our local college teams?

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• Not to get deep in the woods with everyone, but the statistical phenomenon – that seems to be an athletic certainty – means, simply put, the more data acquired, the fewer extreme events there are. In other words, everything averages out in the end, though such a phrase would make a statistician cringe.

Just like how the Gonzaga men finish close games this season makes its followers cringe. Or how their counterparts in Pullman have been playing recently.

Did the Cougars catch lightning in a Modelo bottle to start the season and are they reverting to the mean these days?

Can the Zags ever win a close game again?

Let’s take that last one first. Yes. They just haven’t done it this season. Yet. Latest example? Last night in Moraga. Against the presumptive – and defending – West Coast Conference regular season champs. A chance to make the race something more than a runaway slipped through the Bulldogs fingers down the stretch, just as happened in six other games this season.

They have seven losses. All of them have come in two possession games. Or in overtime, which, no matter the final score, is a one-possession outcome.

Seems like some sort of outlier, don’t you think? And, according to Connor Hope, who writes for the online publication The Almanac, it is, at least in the past 10 years. Since the 2015-16 season, Mark Few’s team has had a losing record in those types of games just twice, a 6-7 mark that first season and a 1-2 one in 2021-22.

This year? They are 0-7.

Every close game has been deposited in the loss column. It’s part of the reason why the Bulldogs, 16-7 overall and 7-3 in conference), are still considered one of the nation’s top teams in the NCAA’s Net rankings and by the analytical ratings.

They just aren’t among the WCC’s top teams on this second day of February.

After their 62-58 home win, the Gaels (10-0) have a pretty-tough-to-see-slip-away three-game loss-column lead over USF (8-3) and Gonzaga.

Halfway done and it seems fair to pencil in Saint Mary’s for the top seed in the WCC tournament – and the bye into the semifinals.

The Zags? You’re guess is as good as mine. Is the 0-7 close-game record a reversion to the mean after a 38-21 mark in such games the last nine seasons? Or is the 0-7 the outlier and, before the season ends, they will be closer to .500?

Ya, I’m not sure either but this group’s lack of a go-to guy, a la Jalen Suggs (just to name GU’s most-recent alpha guard), makes me lean toward the former.

The key shot last night with 5.8 seconds left, down by two? It was a catch-and-shoot over-a-hand 3-pointer from Graham Ike, not exactly the best option. Sure, the Gaels grabbed and held as a couple Zags cut, including main target Khalif Battle, but that’s to be expected late. That Ike wasn’t patient enough to wait for Battle, or that such a complicated inbounds play was needed, says a lot about the lack of a single, stop-me-if-you-can, late-game option.

The loss, and the three-game standings gap, may force the Bulldogs to adjust their goals down the stretch. The second seed is still up for grabs. Eight games remain, including two with USF – and the rematch with Saint Mary’s at home.

A bye to the semifinals is still in play. Win out and it’s a given. Heck, even go 7-1 and it’s in the bag. But either way, a couple close wins would help, not just in the standings but to also reverse the bad end-of-game trends, as Few labeled the inability to execute at the end of tight contests. And build some confidence as the calendar turns to March, the month of tight contests.

• The Cougar men haven’t played won a tight contest recently either. In their now four-game losing streak – it stretched to that last night in San Francisco with a 75-51 blowout by the Dons – Washington State has had a couple close games. The last close win? Back on Jan. 16, a 65-61 decision at last-place San Diego.

Much of the season, WSU has either been blown out or is doing the laughing part of a laugher. That’s OK, sure, if the wins are what keep coming. Not the case in the last eight games, six of which have been losses.

As David Riley’s first year in Pullman began 13-3, it was easy to get excited. To see a bright future. To dream of another NCAA bid. But the storm clouds had gathered – in the form of injuries. A couple were season-ending. Others robbed players of practice time and the team of momentum.

A reversion was expected. It’s just that not many WSU followers thought the mean would be so, well, mean. The Cougars have seven conference games left. They include a three-game, middle-of-the-month stretch starting at Saint Mary’s and finishing with Gonzaga and Santa Clara in Pullman. They are playing for the best seeding possible in the WCC tourney. And a possible second-tier postseason tournament. It’s still possible. But not easy.

• The GU and WSU women’s teams are going the other way. Both had struggles in nonconference play. Both have coaches – Gonzaga’s Lisa Fortier and the Cougs’ Kamie Ethridge – who are used to winning. And both have righted the ship.

After starting 1-2 in conference, including a let-it-slip-away overtime home loss to Oregon State, defending champ Gonzaga has won nine consecutive games. Two of them were two possession games, including Saturday’s 68-64 hold-on victory over visiting Pacific. The Zags are 10-2, are a game – plus the tiebreaker after a sweep – ahead of second-place Portland in the standings.

Lurking a game behind the Pilots is Ethridge’s team. The Cougars defeated San Diego 67-60 yesterday in Pullman. They have won three consecutive games. And are off until meeting the Zags on Saturday in Spokane.

• Saturday was an awfully strange day among the men nationally, wasn’t it? Yes, top-ranked Auburn and second-ranked Duke both won, but 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12 and 14 all lost, five of them at home.

But the upsets only tell part of the day’s strange story.

The desert rivalry game between host Arizona State and Arizona was especially chippy all game and finished with a bizarre ejection. The Wildcats’ Caleb Love was ejected with about 30 seconds left for talking too much – it seems. That was before the reason for his vocal outburst was finally discovered by the officiating crew. Missed by all three was a head-butt administrated by the Sun Devils’ BJ Freeman. An assault followed by verbal complaints and both are ejected? Crazy.

Then again, what ASU coach Bobby Hurley had to say after he pulled his team off the court to avoid any postgame confrontations, was even more bizarre.

Hurley, who helped usher in basketball’s era of trash talking when he played at Duke, complained about the nature of the Wildcats’ constant chatter.

If there is anyone in college basketball that has less standing to criticize in this area, I can’t think of a name.

Not surprisingly, though, Love’s ejection wasn’t the worst of the day. Texas Tech’s JT Toppin was thrown out of the Red Raiders’ game at Houston less than 5 minutes in. His Flagrant Two foul? As the Coogs threw a double team at him, Toppin jumped and passed. In doing so, his right leg flew out slightly, but enough to make contact with the onrushing defender’s groin.

After watching the replay over and over, it looked inadvertent. Not to the three officials. Toppin, Tech’s leading scorer and rebounder, was tossed. So to was Tech coach Grant McCasland, who saw the replay on a bench-side tablet and went ballistic.

Guess what? Texas Tech upset sixth-ranked Houston in overtime.

One other odd circumstance from Saturday and we will move on. New Mexico went into Logan, Utah last night to play Utah State. Both were 9-1 in the Mountain West. A tight, taut battle was assured, right? Nope. The 18-4 Lobos struggled early, came alive in the final 15 minutes and blew out the 19-3 Aggies 82-63. Of all the odd happenstances yesterday, that one surprised me the most.

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WSU: Greg Woods was in the Bay Area last night – part of a crew of four S-R staffers – and has this game story from War Memorial Gym. … We also can pass along a game story from the women’s home victory. … Football? Sure. Courtesy of Dave Boling, who had a chance to talk with coach Jimmy Rogers this week as Rogers went through the state’s media car wash. Dave’s column is worth your time this morning – if you have any left after reading through what I wrote above. Sorry. … Elsewhere in the (current, old and future) Pac-12 and the nation, Jon Wilner’s weekly mailbag ran in the S-R today. … John Canzano has some thoughts on Pac-12 expansion, with the idea the conference may have its media-rights deal in place before it decides on the needed new member (or members). … Oregon had a trio of players in yesterday’s Senior Bowl. … In basketball news, Washington won on the road yesterday. That’s important because it was the first one of the season. … USC posted the biggest upset in the West. … Boise State won handily. … San Diego State struggled with middle-of-the-MWC-pack Wyoming but survived. …The Oregon State women dominated Saint Mary’s and rolled to a double-digit win. … Colorado’s best player this season is a WSU transfer.

Gonzaga: Jim Meehan took the lead role in Moraga last night, with this game story and the lead-in on the recap with highlights. … Theo Lawson has a story on the high level of play displayed by both teams as well as the buzzer-beater notebook. … Tyler Tjomsland supplied the visual report from the game. … We can also give you this game story from the Bay Area. And another one. … As we mentioned above, the women overcame Yvonne Ejim’s foul trouble to top Pacific. When Ejim, the best player in the WCC and one of the best on the West Coast, was on the floor, the Zags dominated. When she wasn’t, Pacific came roaring back. Greg Lee was in McCarthey (as was I) and has this game story. … James Snook has this photo gallery. … Domantas Sabonis should be an all-star (he isn’t, again). That’s dumb. But don’t take my word for it. Ask Shaq.

EWU: The Eagle men have struggled some recently. Not Saturday at Weber State, though. They blew out the Wildcats 72-49. … Elsewhere in the Big Sky, Montana’s men won for the fourth consecutive time. … Montana State is starting to play better. … Northern Colorado has played well all conference season. … The Montana State women keep rolling. … So do the Griz.

Idaho: The Vandals played for the King Spud trophy in Pocatello, but it was Idaho State, led by former Central Valley High and WSU player Dylan Darling, that kept it, winning 87-71. Darling finished with 28 points. ISU transfer Kolton Mitchell, from Lake City High, led UI with 17. … The Idaho State women, behind Ferris High grad Kacey Spinks’ 15 rebounds, upset the Vandals.

Whitworth: The Pirate men are on a roll, topping host Pacific Lutheran 82-71 yesterday to extend their winning streak to five games.

Preps: Dave Nichols has a roundup of Saturday’s action.

Chiefs: Dave also kept tabs on Spokane’s trip to Everett, where the offense shined the Chiefs’ 10-3 victory.

Golf: Hey, Rory McIlroy is in contention at Pebble Beach. Just another reason to watch today’s final round.

Mariners: There is no way to say, with a straight face, the M’s offense has been improved over the offseason.

Seahawks: If you have Chiefs’ fatigue, you are not alone.

Reign: Can one addition kickstart the offense?

Kraken: The NHL’s salary cap is going up.

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• We don’t cover the NBA much. It’s not all that local to Spokane. But last night’s out-of-the-ether trade of Anthony Davis to the Mavericks and, more importantly, Luka Doncic back to the Lakers, has to earn some mention. How the heck does L.A. continually find folks to trade them superstars in their prime? It’s happened since I was just entering my prime – and that’s long ago. Until later …