White House studying cost of Greenland takeover, long in Trump’s sights

The White House is preparing an estimate of what it would cost the federal government to control Greenland as a territory, according to three people with knowledge of the matter, the most concrete effort yet to turn President Donald Trump’s desire to acquire the Danish island into actionable policy.

While Trump’s demands elicited international outrage and a rebuke from Denmark, White House officials have in recent weeks taken steps to determine the financial ramifications of Greenland becoming a U.S. territory, including the cost of providing government services for its 58,000 residents, the people said.

At the White House budget office, staff have sought to understand the potential cost to maintain Greenland if it were acquired, two of the people said. They are also attempting to estimate what revenue to the U.S. Treasury could be gained from Greenland’s natural resources.

One option under analysis is to offer a sweeter deal to the government of Greenland than the Danes, who currently subsidize services on the island at a rate of about $600 million every year.

“This is a lot higher than that,” said one official familiar with the plans, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that remain in the works. “The point is, ‘We’ll pay you more than Denmark does.’”

Trump has said repeatedly that the United States will “get” Greenland.

“100 percent,” he told NBC News on Saturday. Asked whether it would involve force, he said that there is a “good possibility that we could do it without military force” but that “I don’t take anything off the table.”

The internal planning suggests that the administration’s ambitions to acquire Greenland go beyond the president’s musings and are beginning to be reflected in government policy.

Trump’s interest in wresting control of the island from a NATO ally has set off shock and disbelief in Copenhagen, which has repeatedly offered openness to the idea of Washington increasing its military and economic presence in Greenland without changing territorial boundaries. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is planning a three-day visit to the island starting Wednesday at the invitation of Greenland’s new government - in part to demonstrate Denmark’s commitment to deepening ties with the territory.

A senior White House official said the administration is currently analyzing the estimated cost of acquiring Greenland, including factoring in the cost of providing government services to its citizens. Budget officials are still working to determine what that cost could be, the White House official said.

“There is a discussion about what would be the cost-benefit to the United States of America if we were to acquire Greenland,” the official said. “What would it cost us to maintain Greenland as a United States territory?”

The official added that the cost analyses are based on “if the Greenlanders vote and support this.”

“If we acquire it, then what does it cost us to take care of these people as part of our Arctic umbrella?” the official said.

Of the potential acquisitions Trump has floated, including Canada and the Panama Canal, “he views Greenland as the easiest,” said the official with knowledge of his thinking.

“It makes sense from just a plain old national security chess game perspective for the president,” the official said.

Greenland’s leaders have bristled at Trump’s desire to claim their island, declaring that the future will be determined by their residents and no one else.

“We must listen when others talk about us. But we must not be shaken,” Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen wrote Sunday on Facebook. He took office on Friday following an election in which Trump’s designs for Greenland played a major role.

“We must not act out of fear. We must respond with peace, dignity and unity. And it is through these values that we must clearly and calmly show the American president that Greenland is ours,” Nielsen wrote.

The Danish prime minister’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Vice President JD Vance became the highest-ranking U.S. official ever to visit Greenland last week, traveling to a U.S. military base there with national security adviser Michael Waltz and second lady Usha Vance.

He ripped into Denmark’s stewardship of the vast island territory and said that Washington would be a better partner.

“Our message to Denmark is very simple. You have not done a good job by the people of Greenland. You have underinvested in the people of Greenland, and you have underinvested in the security architecture of this incredible, beautiful landmass filled with incredible people,” he said.

“We can’t just ignore this place. We can’t just ignore the president’s desires, but most importantly, we can’t ignore what I said earlier, which is the Russian and Chinese encroachment in Greenland. We have to do more,” he said.

Trump has eyed control of Greenland as a strategic win for the United States, both because of its mineral resources and also because of its strategic location. Poised at a crucial chokepoint between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, it is near sea lanes that are important for shipping and also military travel, including the submarines that are a crucial way for countries that possess nuclear weapons to project their power.

But it’s still not at the top of the list of national security issues, the White House official cautioned, describing the acquisition of Greenland as a “bonus play” to come after ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, securing peace in Israel and Gaza and deterring Iran - all agenda items for this year.

The cost analysis is being done for Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, by staff in the office’s International Affairs Division.

The Trump administration is in part hoping to convince the U.S. public that the federal government would recoup costs in Greenland through mineral royalties and taxes paid for commercial activities.

Another person familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations with administration officials, said the White House is looking at ways to “sweeten the pot” to make it more attractive for Greenland to be part of the United States.

But the precise potential economic payoff from Greenland’s mineral resources is far from clear. Mining minerals can be unpredictable, and the territory’s harsh weather adds to the difficulty. Greenland’s government has also rejected some past mining projects.

“The idea that the U.S. is going to establish large-scale mining of deposits that haven’t been explored, may not be economical, and are currently under ice in a country that doesn’t want us there doesn’t pass the laugh test,” said Alex Jacquez, who served as a senior official in the Biden administration.

“This is nothing but cover for Trump’s colonial fantasies and an opportunity for investors connected to him to make a quick buck.”

Still, Trump has referenced “Manifest Destiny” in his goal of expanding U.S. territory as he has zeroed in on Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal.

“President Trump is obsessed with Greenland - because of its national security importance,” said Stephen K. Bannon, who served for a time as the president’s chief strategist during his first term. “This is the most brilliant naval strategy ever and is essential to protect the country forever. There will be a deal.”

In January, the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank, said that the market price of Greenland’s mineral reserves suggests a price of $200 billion for buying the island, but that its strategic value in the North Atlantic was closer to $3 trillion.

“Right now, we only have one location where we can monitor what goes on in the North Atlantic, and that’s Iceland. Greenland would give you that plus shipping routes with the polar ice caps receding - that’s a more strategic location,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, the group’s president.

Past U.S. territorial expansion has come either by acquisition or war. The U.S. Virgin Islands were purchased from Denmark in 1917. Guam, Puerto Rico and the Philippines were taken from Spain at the end of the Spanish-American War, with the Philippines later gaining independence. Hawaii was annexed after its monarchy was overthrown in a coup that Congress later acknowledged included U.S. participation.

Trump’s ambitions appear to contain a mix of ideology and economic calculation, analysts said.

“One of the benefits they have in mind is re-creating the ethos of the American frontier. It’s hard to quantify that in monetary terms,” said Sam Hammond, chief economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, a center-right think tank. “But the more practical national security benefits include using Greenland as a staging ground to build icebreakers and project control over the Arctic, while of course acquiring more land and natural resources.”