Ex-NFL linebacker’s long-shot bid against Ted Cruz emerges as Senate nailbiter in Texas

Texas Democrats have been trying and failing to win statewide office for three decades. U.S. Representative Colin Allred, a former National Football League linebacker, is out to prove that this time is different.

The Dallas Democrat is taking on Senator Ted Cruz, the conservative Republican who narrowly fended off a 2018 challenge from liberal darling Beto O’Rourke. Allred, once considered a long shot, has been gaining ground on Cruz in opinion polls, and a survey last week showed a statistical tie.

The race is shaping up as a test of whether Texas will ever be competitive – a question with far-reaching national implications as Democrats battle to keep control of the Senate. In contrast to O’Rourke, Allred is betting on casting himself as a moderate as he vies for independents, younger voters, the state’s rising Hispanic population and a pandemic-driven influx of transplants from Democratic states such as California and New York.

“In a good Democratic year, with a good candidate and plenty of money, you can come close,” said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. “Whether you can get over the top is still very much an open question.”

This year, Allred is riding fury over abortion restrictions and excitement over Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign while hoping for a boost from the wave of new voters.

For Democrats, a Texas breakthrough is part pipe dream and part necessity. The party has steadily bled Senate seats over the past decade and is poised this cycle to lose as many as three more, in states that are now reliably Republican: including Montana.

Barring pickups in states such as Texas, Florida and North Carolina, Democrats are likely to spend years in the wilderness as the chamber’s minority party. That’s spurring doubts about their chances of passing any new flagship legislation or confirming cabinet officials or judges, including for the Supreme Court, even if Harris defeats former President Donald Trump in the presidential race.

Tightening polls

In a Morning Consult poll last week, Allred led Cruz by a percentage point, which was within the margin of error. A Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey this week showed Cruz up by three points, a smaller advantage than he enjoyed in many polls earlier this year. A debate is scheduled for Oct. 15 in Dallas.

Allred is running ahead of Harris, who in Texas trails Trump by an average of six points, according to polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight. That’s comparable to Trump’s victory margin four years ago.

Cruz won by fewer than three points in 2018, a narrow victory by the standards of other leading Texas Republicans, who have scored electoral advantages of around 10 points in recent years.

This year, as he seeks a third term, Cruz has faulted Allred as “extreme and out of step with Texas” and slammed him over border security and transgender issues.

But acknowledging the race’s closeness, Cruz, 53, is also attempting to counter Allred’s push for moderates. In an interview, the senator stressed his bipartisan credentials such as working with Democrats to build highways – an unusual point of emphasis for a close Trump ally who first won election to the Senate as a Tea Party hardliner in 2012.

“I’m going to focus on my record for 12 years, fighting and delivering results for Texans,” he said. “If you are a hard-left Democrat after Donald Trump, there is nobody in the country you want to beat more than me, and so we are taking this very, very seriously.”

Donors are shelling out for Allred. He has raised $38.4 million and started July with $10.4 million in the bank, the latest Federal Election Commission filings show. Cruz has raised $26.1 million since 2023 and started July with cash of $12.7 million.

Campaigns don’t report third-quarter fundraising totals until Oct. 15, but Allred appears to have widened his cash advantage. He’s spending $43 million in paid media for the general election, according to AdImpact, compared with $16 million for Cruz. Outside groups, including super political action committees and the Texas GOP, have bought $19 million in ad time to support the Republican.

Abortion, border

Allred, 41, is running a less rambunctious campaign than O’Rourke, who barnstormed through the state’s 254 counties and dominated social media. Instead, Allred has sought to boost his name recognition with early ads that emphasized his upset win when he ran for Congress in 2018.

Raised in Dallas by a single mother, Allred became a football star at Baylor University and went on to play linebacker for the Tennessee Titans. After football, he earned a law degree.

In his Senate campaign, he’s talked up his support for key Democratic priorities such as abortion rights. But he’s also emphasized his differences with the Biden administration, especially on border enforcement, and spotlighted his efforts to reach across the aisle. One example: working with Republicans to establish a veterans’ hospital near Dallas.

In addition, he’s sought to rekindle anger at Cruz’s actions during one of the state’s biggest recent crises. While millions of Texans endured frigid temperatures after the state power grid failed during a deadly winter storm in 2021, Cruz flew with his family to Cancun, Mexico. He rushed back a day later amid fierce blowback.

“When 30 million people are freezing in the dark, he decides to go on vacation,” Allred said in an interview.

Allred’s financial edge is no guarantee of November success. Cruz himself won the seat in 2012 after prevailing in the Republican primary as a modestly funded underdog. In 2018, O’Rourke doubled Cruz’s fundraising on his way to losing.

One wild card: This year’s race is unfolding against a presidential backdrop. Allred would benefit if Harris generates strong Democratic turnout against Trump.

“This is Cruz’s race to lose, but at the same time, Allred has a realistic prospect of victory if failings by the Trump campaign drag down Republican candidates nationwide,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston.

Changing Texas

Texas has grown quickly since Cruz’s reelection six years ago, with the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Houston adding more people than any other US metro areas in the Census Bureau’s latest annual tally. But since Texas voters don’t have to register with a party, the effect on electoral preferences of all the new voters is still a mystery.

Many transplants have arrived from Democratic-dominated states such as California, New York and Illinois. Some who have relocated for work may bring a Democratic tinge. Others probably chose Texas because they preferred Republican policies on such issues as taxes, regulations and guns. In 2018, Cruz won handily among voters who weren’t born in the state, according to an exit poll by CNN.

Another longtime source of Democratic aspirations is the population growth of Hispanics, who nosed ahead of non-Hispanic Whites in recent years to make up the biggest share of the Texas population. But Trump made inroads with Latino voters in Texas in 2020, and Cruz, the son of a Cuban immigrant, is wagering millions on Spanish-language ads.

That leaves Allred with an uphill battle. Texas Democrats have made gains over the years, winning big urban counties and narrowing the Republican victory margin in recent presidential elections.

But the party is laboring to close the gap entirely. O’Rourke, who founded a voter registration organization, is betting on mobilization efforts to support Allred this year and build up more infrastructure for future Democratic progress.

“If someone had been doing that in 2014, 2016, 2017 leading up into the 2018 race, we would have defeated Ted Cruz,” he said in an interview, calling on national party leaders to invest more in the state. “And I would be speaking to you as a junior senator from the state of Texas right now.”

– With assistance from Bill Allison and Josh Wingrove.