Ukraine’s allies are starting to look at how a cease-fire could work

Some of Ukraine’s allies are starting to talk about how the fight against Russia’s invasion might end, raising concerns in several other Western capitals that these efforts could lead to Kyiv being forced into a premature cease-fire.

As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

The people made clear that any decision to negotiate would be for Kyiv to make and that nobody is pressuring Volodomyr Zelenskyy into talks. Ukraine’s president has been adamant, publicly and privately, that ceding territory to Russia would be unfair, the people said. With no sign that Russia has scaled back its objectives, the prospect of real negotiations still remains distant, they said.

But as the war heads toward another winter, there’s little sign of breakthrough on the battlefield. That’s prompting some allied officials to start exploring ways in which diplomacy could break the deadlock.

Though Kyiv’s surprise incursion into the Kursk region of Russia upended the perception the war had settled into a stalemate that played to the Kremlin’s strengths, there’s little immediate prospect of Kyiv dislodging Russian troops from all the land they occupy and some allies remain unclear about the operation’s longer-term strategic purpose. Moscow has struggled to advance on the ground but its missiles have destroyed large parts of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, raising fears about how the country will weather this winter.

Zelenskyy is expected to push for NATO and E.U. membership, economic and security agreements and a continued supply of more advanced weapons as part of his “victory plan,” two of the people said. He’s due to present it to U.S. President Joe Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month. He is also keen to share the plans with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

A negotiation to end the fighting would have to resolve a key conundrum: how to ensure that Ukraine won’t be vulnerable to a future Russian attack while reassuring its allies that they won’t be dragged into a direct conflict with the Kremlin. The latter concern is a major reason why several allies have so far been cautious about allowing the use of the long-range weapons they provide in Russia and the possibility of Ukraine becoming part of NATO - with its security guarantee - anytime soon.

Any talks also would have to get over the bitter legacy of the Minsk Accords that were agreed after Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. For Kyiv and its supporters, that agreement, signed seven years before the full-scale invasion, points to the hazards of entering negotiations with the Russians. Zelenskyy has warned that Putin would again use the time provided by any cease-fire to regroup and eventually attack again.

One European defense official said their government shares the concern that following any deal, Putin would prey on insecurities in the West as he prepared for a new conflict. What’s more, the official noted, it would be politically difficult for Zelenskyy to sign any agreement that includes territorial concessions while Putin’s goal to subjugate Ukraine in its entirety remains unchanged. At the very least, it would make sense for Putin to wait to see who wins the U.S. election and what their actual policies are, said the official.

Some allies believe that the time between the November U.S. election and next January’s presidential inauguration may provide a window of opportunity during which the outgoing Biden administration may have more political leeway to make a deal. Continued military and financial support for Ukraine could face uncertainty with a change of administration in the U.S. and the rise of far-right forces in Europe.

Should he win the election, Trump has also suggested he would seek a deal in that time, without providing details. JD Vance, his running mate, recently said the former president’s plan could include Russia retaining what it has taken and a demilitarized zone established along current battle lines.

On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is among those to have resisted providing Ukraine with longer-range missiles, told broadcaster ZDF that now was the moment to discuss how to get out of the war faster.

A senior U.S. official said they expected Zelenskyy’s plan to be quite maximalist and conceptual rather than detailed. But the trajectory the war takes over the next two months will be quite significant, the official said. The base case is that the inauguration passes and the war continues to grinding on, but chances of alternative scenarios are not negligible, the official added.

Allies’ immediate concern is to help Ukraine restore some of its energy capacity ahead of winter and fend off Russian advances around the strategic town of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Still, discussions over the medium-term strategy are also fueling disagreements within some Western governments, officials said.

One camp is more persuaded by Putin’s threats of escalation if allies allow Ukraine to use the weapons they provide deep inside Russia and more likely to favor a push toward a diplomatic resolution. Other allies oppose negotiations anytime soon and want to increase the supply of arms to Ukraine.

That split over potential talks points to a long-standing frustration among some officials, and many in Ukraine, over the allies’ reluctance to give Zelenskyy more weaponry to deploy against Russian forces.

The Ukrainian president himself has criticized allies for delays to fulfilling commitments made earlier this year to provide Kyiv with more air defense systems and their ongoing indecision over lifting restrictions on the use of western-provided missiles to strike military targets deep inside Russia.

Moscow, in contrast, has been able to ramp up its production of missiles and artillery ammunition. It also receives military support from the likes of North Korea and Iran as well as key technologies from China that are needed to manufacture weapons.

Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any territorial concessions, with 55% of respondents rejecting the idea in a poll released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those categorically against giving up land drops to 38% if Kyiv is granted NATO and European Union membership as part of the deal.