Wilner mailbag: All about Pac-12 expansion, the CFP factor, options for the final spots and the future of the Mountain West

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline

Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

Do we honestly believe a rebuilt Pac-12 will receive an automatic playoff bid? Doubt the powers that be would let it happen. – @Moneyline_RAY

Will the Pac-12 regain its power conference status in 2026 once the new members join, assuming there are eight schools? – @CrashLit

We paired these questions because they are closely related, albeit not identical, and extremely important for the future of the Pac-12 in the wake of the thunderous expansion news.

First, let’s explain the crucial difference.

The term “power conference” is an informal term for what the NCAA calls the autonomy conferences – the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC – and is strictly about governance issues.

The autonomy conferences have special voting privileges within the college sports structure. The Pac-12 was one of the A-5 conferences but lost the designation after the 10 schools left.

Whereas the NCAA runs March Madness, the conferences operate the College Football Playoff. They determine which conferences receive automatic bids, how the revenue is distributed, etc.

The new CFP format does not distinguish between autonomy (power) conferences and everyone else in terms of access. The five highest-rated conference champions receive automatic bids.

The Pac-12 is not considered a conference by the CFP during the 2024-25 seasons, so Washington State and Oregon State can only qualify for the event through the at-large pool (like Notre Dame).

But starting with the 2026 season, when the Pac-12 will presumably have eight schools (to meet the NCAA requirement), the conference will be treated the same as the SEC and the Sun Belt: If its champion is one of the five highest-ranked conference winners, an automatic bid will follow.

That’s an important element in the Pac-12’s expansion move and a vital piece of its future. If we assume the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC winners collect automatic bids, one spot will remain for the highest-ranked winner from the Pac-12, American, Mid-American, Sun Belt, Conference USA and Mountain West (if the Mountain West still exists in the fall of 2026).

Put another way: The Pac-12 will have an encouraging competitive position, for there are only so many teams from the other five conferences capable of producing a playoff-caliber season.

Washington State and Oregon State not only secured a home for their football programs, they took a major leap toward regular CFP access.

In fact, we’d argue that starting in 2026, the Cougars and Beavers have a wider path into the CFP than many of the departed Pac-12 schools competing in deeper, tougher conferences. While the Big Ten will assuredly receive three total berths, and quite possibly four – that’s at-large and automatic bids combined – the ACC and Big 12 will be fortunate to get more than one for their 17- and 16-team conferences, respectively.

(The revenue situation is inconsequential compared to the platform. Schools outside of the Power Four will receive about $2 million per year from the CFP. None of the revenue is tied to participation.)

After two years, the situation could change.

The new playoff contract cycle with ESPN begins in fall 2026 and includes a look-in provision after Year Two.

The SEC and Big Ten, perhaps with agreement from the Big 12 and ACC, could use the look-in as a means of changing the access – as a means of limiting the access – for the other conferences.

They would need to tread carefully to avoid a lawsuit, but the Hotline would be remiss in our assessment of the situation if we did not point out the possibility of changes to access created by the look-in provision.

At least for the 2026 and 2027 seasons, the rebuilt Pac-12 will have a manageable path onto the sport’s biggest stage.

And that, in our view, is arguably the most significant competitive development to emerge from the expansion news that unfolded in the past 36 hours.

With the Mountain West decimated, what options do they have? And what’s your prediction for the future of that conference? – Jake I

We addressed this issue in depth Thursday on the Hotline but happy to recap here.

Put simply, the Mountain West is on the brink of collapse, regardless of whether it loses additional schools to the Pac-12 or other conferences, and here’s why:

It has no media value.

The contract with Fox and CBS expires in two years, and no media company will pay more than pennies on the dollar for the football inventory without San Diego State and Boise State, especially when that media company can get the Aztecs and Broncos, along with WSU and OSU, by partnering with the Pac-12.

Every remaining school in the Mountain West knows that, which is why they are looking for life rafts as we type this.

The conference should never have taken a hardline stance with the Pac-12 on the scheduling agreement for 2024-25. Once WSU and OSU secured that $250 million in assets, the Mountain West should have partnered as closely as possible with the Pac-12 for as long as possible to avoid this very situation.

Who will be the next members to join the Pac-12 and will the conference try to get to 12 again? – @Thomallister291

We took a deep dive into the top expansion options on Thursday but can offer a summary here.

The process starts with expansion of the footprint: Are schools in the Central Time Zone (e.g., Memphis, Tulane and a few from Texas) interested in leaving the American and joining the Pac-12?

If not, then look for the Pac-12 to focus on the Mountain West, with UNLV and Air Force likely at the top of the list.

For now, eight should be viewed as the target number, because it doesn’t dilute the revenue shares and because it leaves room to add teams in future years without getting cumbersome.

Oregon State Athletic Director Scott Barnes, however, told OregonLive on Thursday that nine schools is optimal for football. So let’s keep that in mind as this plays out over the next six months.

Did the Big 12 miss an opportunity by not snagging Oregon State and Washington State? – @JonBernal19

If you ask the Beavers and Cougars, the answer would be an unequivocal yes.

But if you surveyed the 16 members of the Big 12, the answer probably would be a resounding no.

Nothing has fundamentally changed about OSU and WSU. Their geography, media valuations and competitive success, especially in basketball, didn’t clear the Big 12’s bar prior to Pac-12 expansion, and they don’t clear the bar now.

It’s an unfortunate reality for the Beavers and Cougars, just as schools in the Mountain West won’t meet the standard for membership in the rebuilt Pac-12.

Realignment is unforgiving, whether it’s at the top of the FBS food chain or closer to the bottom.