Analysis: Why the Pac-12 poached the Mountain West and where both leagues go from here

In the record-breaking Las Vegas heat in July, the fate of a West Coast college football conference was in the air.

Inside one small conference room in the Bellagio, Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty held court for any media members who wanted to talk ahead of a season in which he has made an early case for Heisman Trophy consideration. Jeanty was in the room because Mountain West media days were being held within the sportsbook over at the Circa, and Jeanty couldn’t enter, as he is not 21 years old.

A few rooms down from Jeanty in the Bellagio, the two Pac-12 remnants held a cocktail hour, “After Hours with the Beavs and Cougs.” Washington State mascot Butch T. Cougar walked around in a red jacket with chest fur laid bare. It was not meant to be a night of mourning. Former Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf said the Pac-12 defectors would regret their decisions. A few curse words were uttered over the situation in which the two schools found themselves.

“If anybody has earned the right to drink, it’s the Pac-12,” new commissioner Teresa Gould told the crowd, which responded with cheers.

But in private conversations over those few days in Vegas, it became clear that a complete Pac-12/Mountain West merger was not going to materialize, nor perhaps even a 2025 extension of the two conferences’ football scheduling agreement. The sides were too far apart, and the relationship was strained. The Pac-12 schools did not like how Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez was handling negotiations, standing firmly in her conference’s stance on the financial details of an agreement.

Mountain West sources denied there was any collusion or mandate to box out Oregon State and Washington State from individually scheduling 2025 football games with Mountain West schools. Still, the Mountain West felt it held the leverage, even as the deadline to reach a scheduling agreement passed on Sept. 1. For a year, Oregon State and Washington State had made it public knowledge that they did not want to join the Mountain West, which was not appreciated within that conference when it was the Mountain West that provided a 2024 scheduling lifeline to the schools after 10 Pac-12 members departed for the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. They still needed another lifeline, the thinking went.

But money and opportunity won in the end. It always does.

On Thursday, the Pac-12 began to rebuild, poaching four of the most valuable Mountain West schools: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. They’re set to join the conference on July 1, 2026. Presented with the potential to find more revenue in a leaner conference with a better brand name, the four schools chose to cut dead weight and leave behind the Mountain West’s smaller-market schools with less recent football success.

The Mountain West, which was itself formed as a breakaway from the Western Athletic Conference in 1998 and had avoided damage from this modern round of realignment, was dealt a significant blow. Conference realignment for the past four years has turned collegial business relationships into cutthroat ones, and it was no different here – Nevarez and Gould were once Pac-12 colleagues. The hard feelings from the negotiations may have sped up the timeline, along with the opportunity to spread good news before Oregon State hosts Oregon in front of a national audience on Fox on Saturday. But without a Power Four invitation coming their way and with no interest in full-time Mountain West membership, the Pac-12 leftovers’ most likely course of action was always to attempt a rebuild.

Although expansion discussions had been going on for weeks or longer, sources on both sides said it all sped up quickly in a 72-hour window before the announcement.

“I can’t tell you as of the end of last week or early this week that I thought it was going to happen,” Boise State Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey told reporters.

On its face, the Pac-12 rebuild does seem a little odd – four Mountain West schools joining a conference in which they outnumber the non-Mountain West schools, potentially at a total cost of $111 million due to exit fees and poaching fees. But in the end, the motivations for all sides were clear.

On the Pac-2 side, rebuilding the conference was the best available option. The dream of a Power Four invitation from the Big 12 or ACC didn’t materialize, and the Beavers and Cougars couldn’t wait much longer. They publicly hoped for chaos, perhaps a fractured ACC, but it didn’t come, at least not quickly enough. With $65 million from an estimated $250 million leftover Pac-12 war chest earmarked to help rebuild the conference, the two remaining members went to work.

The four Mountain West schools on the move see the potential for more revenue, even if it’s not at a Power Four level. They receive around $6 million in television money from the Mountain West’s TV deal with Fox, CBS and TNT, a number that likely would’ve been bumped up a bit in the Mountain West’s next TV deal beginning in 2027. The reformed Pac-12 hasn’t taken its rights to market, but the schools’ hope is to draw more than $10-12 million per member from a new TV deal with fewer mouths to feed (for comparison, the Big 12 and ACC distribute around $30 million per school). The conference’s Pac-12 Enterprises production company has also proven to be a revenue-generator, even outside college sports. The possible introduction of performance-based revenue sharing could further reward the new conference’s most successful members.

The move also stemmed from the realization that the entire collegiate sports model could be overturned in the next few years, whether through the courts or more conference realignment at the end of the decade. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State wanted to tie themselves to schools that invest more closely to their level, rather than those at the bottom of the Mountain West. The four schools felt this was their last best chance to end up on the right side of whatever the future is.

“This is about the next five years,” said a person familiar with the schools’ thinking.

The next steps for everyone are still to be determined. The Pac-12 needs at least two more schools to get to eight members and remain recognized as an NCAA and FBS conference beyond 2026, but it could also go to 10, depending on the value. Potential targets to the east include Tulane, Memphis, South Florida, North Texas, UTSA, Rice and Texas State. It could circle back to Mountain West leftovers such as UNLV and Air Force if it can’t convince American Athletic Conference schools to make a move. The AAC has the best TV deal in the Group of Five and ESPN exposure to sell. Perhaps Air Force could join Army and Navy football in that conference.

“We’re not locked in on any specific number,” Gould told on Thursday. “We’re going to do what makes the most sense for the student-athlete experience and put our conference in the best possible position to succeed.”

Stanford and Cal are not expected to be options, both because the ACC won’t let them go and because the pair may not even want to go back. If the ACC somehow dissolves, those odds would change, but that possibility is many steps away from being a realistic one.

Gonzaga could be an option, perhaps as a fourth addition to pair with three football schools. That would bring the conference to an even 10 members overall and would allow for easy scheduling with nine football-playing teams.

“Everything is on the table,” Gould said when asked about geographic limitations.

The Mountain West has been preparing its options for this situation since San Diego State’s initial plan to leave for the old Pac-12 surfaced a year ago, though the conference isn’t required to add anyone, with eight football-playing members remaining. Potential targets within the Football Bowl Subdivision could include New Mexico State and UTEP. Down in the FCS, the Mountain West has never advanced far into discussions with schools such as North Dakota State, South Dakota State or the Montanas, but perhaps now is that time. There is now a $5 million fee to move up to the FBS, but the Mountain West could have $111 million in exit fees to work with and could perhaps pull from that pool for signing bonuses to entice teams.

That is, unless the Mountain West becomes so depleted that nine of its 12 members vote to dissolve the conference and waive all those fees. That was always the “Break glass in case of emergency” option, but it’s unclear whether that’s still a possibility. Now that four schools have put in their notice to leave, they may no longer have the ability to make that type of decision as part of the board.

No one is under the impression the new Pac-12 will be the Pac-12 of old, even if the logo stays the same. A rebuilt conference won’t get autonomous status or an extra College Football Playoff automatic bid for its champion. It’s essentially going to be a new Group of Five-level conference, hoping to be in the strongest position to earn that fifth CFP auto-bid. Oregon State and Washington State also still need to find games to fill out their 2025 schedules. But more than anything, it’s an opportunity to live to fight another day. For the first time in a long time, it was a day of positive excitement for the conference.

“It’s hard to actually put specific words to it,” Gould said. “It just brings me a lot of excitement and joy that we’re going to have an opportunity to write this next chapter of the Pac-12.”