Pac-12 expansion: Estimating the media value of a rebuilt conference with WSU, OSU and the four Mountain West schools

It’s far too early in the process to have clarity on the value of a media rights deal for the rebuilt Pac-12.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State were approved for membership hours ago; the structure of the conference is not complete; and the media ecosystem is highly fluid.

But we know one of the measuring sticks for a new deal: $11 million per school per year.

That’s the approximate amount Cal and Stanford are set to earn from the ACC’s media rights contract for the next seven years, based on their partial-share membership.

The Bears and Cardinal would not reverse course if the Pac-12 matched or exceeded that amount. There are other factors at play, starting with their contractual commitment to the ACC until 2036.

But any media rights deal in the same range as the Bay Area schools would qualify as a major psychological victory for Washington State and Oregon State one year after they were cast adrift following the departure of 10 schools from the Pac-12.

Could the rebuilt conference, which will have six members starting in 2026 – but needs two more to comply with NCAA rules – generate $11 million per school per year in media value?

The Hotline reached out to several industry analysts in the aftermath of the Pac-12 luring away the Mountain West quartet.

Before we address the situation directly, two points of context:

• The Mountain West’s current media rights contract with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the start of the media cycle for the rebuilt Pac-12.

• The Mountain West’s deal has distributed roughly $5 million per school, on average, over the contract term.

That arrangement, signed in 2020, included a handful of schools that carried below-average valuations. But the rebuilt Pac-12 will feature four Mountain West schools with above-average valuations, plus Washington State and Oregon State, which carry far more media value than the Mountain West average.

In fact, the conference as structured starting in the summer of 2026 will feature five of the top 30 media markets in the country if Seattle is considered a home market for Washington State and Sacramento is considered the same for Fresno State.

Ultimately, the media valuation depends on demand for the content. How many networks will submit bids? Of the interested companies, how many want Pac-12 content for linear distribution, which carries a higher price tag than streaming?

Bob Thompson, the retired former president of Fox Sports, suggested on social media Thursday morning that there will be interest:

“Pac 12 jumps to first in line on the collegiate TV deal front. For a number of reasons their games will be of value to outlets.”

The list of interested suitors could include ESPN, which might need content for its streaming service and West Coast schools for its 7:30 p.m. kickoff window.

The list could include Fox, which seemingly would view the rebuilt Pac-12 as an upgrade from its current association with the Mountain West and want to maintain a comparable inventory level.

The CW could have interest, as well. The network signed a one-year deal to broadcast WSU and OSU games this season, has a partnership with the ACC and covets the return-on-investment offered by live sports.

And let’s not forget about Turner, which is moving into the football space – it’s sub-licensing College Football Playoff games from ESPN – and will need content to replace its NBA inventory.

The sports streamers, Amazon and Apple, could have interest, as well.

“College football has never been a more attractive property for various forms of media,” an industry source said.

“In the days of the Power Five, there was enough interest, generally, in four of the five. Now that many of the attractive teams have been absorbed by the remaining Power Four, the major networks have what they need … It’s unclear that anyone will feel a burning need to spend new money.”

But the source added: “Streaming does change the situation, opening up new potential bidders and additional avenues for distribution.”

The source declined to provide an estimated media valuation for the rebuilt Pac-12, but the Hotline has no such hesitation and, in fact, revels in back-of-the-envelope math.

Let’s use the former Pac-12 to determine the average annual valuation (AAV) for the reconfigured conference.

The Pac-12 media rights deal with ESPN and Fox that began in 2012 carried an AAV of $21 million per school per year. When the conference went to market in the summer of 2022, ESPN offered a deal that averaged $30 million per school per year – a 43 percent increase in AAV.

(The presidents summarily rejected the offer, a tactical mistake that fueled the collapse.)

Granted, the value of live sports soared over the lengthy 12-year contract with ESPN and Fox. But that increase was offset, in part, by the departure of the Los Angeles schools prior to the Pac-12 going to market.

We could use that 43 percent rise in AAV as a proxy for the increase in value from the Mountain West’s deal in 2020 to the Pac-12’s deal in 2026, except that the configuration has changed: The Mountain West schools with below-average value are not part of the new deal.

So is a 50 percent increase in AAV from the Mountain West’s current deal (approximately $5 million per school per year) a reasonable estimate?

Or could the jump be closer to 75 percent?

Either way, an average of $10 million per school per year seemingly approaches the ceiling for the rebuilt Pac-12 unless 1) the demand side of the marketplace changes substantially or 2) the conference adds two schools that further enhance value.

There is much to play out over the next six-to-nine months if the Pac-12 hopes to secure a media deal well in advance of the start of its next chapter.

Or as Thompson noted on his Twitter/X account: “Let the dance begin.”