Future of the MWC: Bleak outlook following debilitating raid by the Pac-12, and it could impact Big Sky

The SEC decimated the Mountain West.

So did the Big Ten.

And the Big 12.

And the ACC.

The Pac-12 finished the job Thursday when it stripped the Mountain West of its top football schools, leaving behind a conference in peril.

But that was merely the last link in a chain of destruction that began when the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma in summer 2021, sparking a series of realignment waves in which conferences continually backfilled from below until, finally, the Pac-12 carved up the Mountain West.

Now, there is nothing left.

The eight remaining schools in the Mountain West will beg and plead for invitations to the Pac-12, but only two are likely to get the call.

After plucking Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State, the Pac-12 has just two spots to fill to reach the membership number (eight) required by NCAA rules.

The six Mountain West schools that don’t get called up could be left for the dustbin on major college football.

We are simply being honest, folks.

When the Pac-12 fractured in summer 2023, Washington State and Oregon State had the option to restock using Mountain West schools.

Where is the Mountain West going to turn? Why would anyone leave the Sun Belt, Mid-American or Conference USA for the depleted Mountain West?

Answer: They wouldn’t.

Because whatever combination of schools remains following the Pac-12’s second raid, which is likely to come in the spring, will have zero media value.

And media value – the amount networks pay conferences for the rights to broadcast football games – is the lifeblood of major college sports.

Other thoughts:

• Which schools are most likely to join the Pac-12?

UNLV is atop the list, according to a source, but only if the Rebels can win the intrastate political battle and extricate themselves from the sister campus in Reno.

Air Force is likely on the Pac-12’s short list, as well. But could the Falcons decide instead to join Army and Navy in the American Athletic Conference?

(The sprawling conference includes Rice, North Texas and Tulsa, so the geography could work for a school in Colorado Springs.)

• The Mountain West has one place to turn for replacements: the Big Sky.

But schools in the Football Championship Subdivision have an entirely different cost structure, and that difference will only expand when the FBS adopts a revenue-sharing model (with athletes) as early as next year.

Would the Montana schools, for example, agree to increase their expenses exponentially without guarantees of a corresponding boost in revenue?

“Why enter into Group of Five purgatory when you can dominate at the FCS level?” a source asked.

It seems more likely that some of the remaining schools in the Mountain West drop down to the FCS level.

Others could try to become football independents.

Perhaps a few join Conference USA, which includes UTEP and New Mexico State.

• Commissioner Gloria Nevarez was outmaneuvered badly.

She made the same mistake so many commissioners have made over the years, including the Pac-12’s Larry Scott (her former boss) and George Kliavkoff.

Instead of catering to the schools coveted by the Pac-12 – to the flight risks – Nevarez crafted a strategy to suit the bottom-tier schools in her conference.

While she took a hardline stance with the Pac-12 on extending the football scheduling partnership, thinking the leverage was with the Mountain West, San Diego State and Boise State plotted their escape route with Colorado State and Fresno State in tow.

Or as we wrote last week:

”The Hotline does not believe the Aztecs and Broncos have any interest in signing up for another media rights cycle with the same collection of Mountain West schools …

”A conference consisting of Washington State, Oregon State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, UNLV, Air Force and at least one more school – but no more than three – would generate more media value than the Mountain West if the current collection of schools signed a new deal together.”

The endgame was crystal clear. Only the timing was unknown.

And in the aftermath, the Mountain West is littered with ash and ruin.