Commentary: Here’s what it will take for OC Ryan Grubb’s system to work for Seahawks
Ryan Grubb wrote a number on the upper right corner of the whiteboard in his office at the University of Washington. It lived in the same spot for the entirety of his two-season stay, a silent challenge to chase. It’s the same number he wrote on a separate whiteboard at Fresno State:
41.3
As in, 41.3 points per game, the goal for Grubb’s offenses each of the past three campaigns. That’s an admittedly ambitious mark, and his Bulldogs and Huskies failed to hit it — averaging 33.4 points in 2021 (26th nationally), 39.7 in 2022 (7th) and 36.0 in 2023 (13th).
But you can’t lasso the moon if you’re scared to throw the rope.
Now, there’s a new challenge to chase.
There’s likely a new number on the whiteboard in Grubb’s office at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center, where the 48-year-old former hog farmer is embarking on his first season as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. After all, the Dallas Cowboys — who led the NFL in scoring in 2023 — managed a paltry 29.9 points per game.
As for the Seahawks, under departed offensive coordinator Shane Waldron?
21.4
That was good — or bad — for 17th in the NFL, as they struggled to consistently spotlight their platoon of playmakers. The 9-8 Seahawks also sat 21st in total offense (322.9 yards per game), 23rd in first downs per game (18.6), 23rd in third-down conversion rate (36.2%), 25th in red-zone conversion rate (48.15%) and 32nd in average time of possession (26:47).
This particular lasso never entered the atmosphere.
So, how will Grubb get more out of quarterback Geno Smith, running back Kenneth Walker III and wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2024? It starts with understanding their strengths.
As New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener — Grubb’s starter at Fresno State in 2021 — said this summer: “He understands his guys faster than most. He studies the crap out of them in the offseason work. It’s just a testament to how fast he can grow in a short amount of time with that guy he has.”
Recently, that meant generating matchups for wide receivers Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk to run wild at Washington.
“I remember talking to people last year and saying, ‘This is someone [Grubb] who’s operating like a professional,’” said “GoJo and Golic” show host Mike Golic Jr., who called UW’s 2023 Oregon game and Apple Cup for Learfield radio. “Usually what that means is, you’re moving your pieces around to get the best matchup — to help create an advantage somewhere schematically, formation-wise, with motion, and best use your pieces.
“And last year for Washington, it just so happened that their best piece was an incredibly stocked wide receiver room they wanted to get in space and get into as many advantageous situations as they could.”
To do that, Grubb disguised simple concepts with presnap shifts and motions designed to disorient defenses.
Take Texas, which dropped bowl games to Grubb and Washington in back-to-back seasons.
“It was a lot of similar concepts [in both games],” said fourth-year Texas defensive coordinator (and former UW DC) Pete Kwiatkowski, whose Longhorns surrendered a combined 64 points to UW in their Sugar Bowl and Alamo Bowl defeats. “They just do a good job of packaging it differently week in and week out.
“It’s subtle things, after the fact, that you see — the splits, the formations, what looks they’re running. But whether it’s high-low concepts or man-beaters, it’s all still there. They just do a good job of hiding [base concepts] with their shifts and motions.”
But can that weekly window-dressing cause chaos in the NFL? Well, the teams that most used presnap motion in 2023 — the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Lions and Ravens — were six playoff teams with consistently prolific production.
“When you’re driving on the road and all of a sudden a squirrel pops out and runs past you, what happens? You pump your brakes for a second, just to see what’s going on and assess the situation,” Golic said. “All you’re trying to do is get a linebacker to pump their brakes for a second on the second level.
“So now even if the offensive lineman doesn’t get there [to block the linebacker], these running backs at the NFL level, these skill players, are so gifted that all they need is a little half-second and a little crease to make it happen.”
At UW, it happened with the help of a dominant line, led by a pair of 2024 draft picks in tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten. Though Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. understandably earned the attention, an athletic and physical front made his production possible.
“The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best unit in college football last year, and they did it because they were incredibly scheme versatile,” said Golic, a former offensive lineman at Notre Dame. “They did zone stuff. There was some pin-and-pull action in there to get their incredible tackles [moving] and let those guys be great athletes. They were assets in the screen game, where they got them out running in space and got their big bodies on little bodies, because their guys could move really well. They used those pullers to get guys on the run for the same reason in the ground game.
“I think all of it speaks to Ryan Grubb’s ability to fit what they do to the personnel that they have. It just so happens that, in a lot of ways, Seattle’s personnel is very similar.”
At least, that’s the hope.
So much of Smith and Co.’s success will hinge on a retooled offensive line, led by new position coach (and former Husky assistant) Scott Huff. Will right tackle Abraham Lucas — who, while continuing to recover from knee surgery, was placed on the physically unable to perform list and will miss at least four games — make an eventual impact? Will newly signed center Connor Williams overcome the torn ACL he sustained last December? Will Anthony Bradford or rookie Christian Haynes emerge at right guard?
Or, will holes in the hull swiftly sink the boat?
“If you want to do all the laser-light show stuff [in the passing game],” Golic said, “you need time.”
That — cue the columnist — will determine Grubb’s success or failure in 2024. Not Smith’s perceived ceiling as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback. Not Walker, Metcalf, Lockett or Smith-Njigba’s obvious ability.
Not whether the scheme will work five miles south of Montlake.
“Oh, yeah. Football is football, you know?” Kwiatkowski said last week, when asked if Grubb’s scheme can have similar success in the NFL. “The coverages and route concepts … it’s all the same. It’s just how it gets coordinated and packaged and what your identity is, what your flavor is.”
It’s the same flavor, but a new number.
New challenge. Same chase.