Weakened by attacks on its allies, Iran braces for Israeli strikes

In the weeks since Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel - and as Tehran awaits an Israeli response - pro-government media have run wall-to-wall coverage promoting Iranian military might.

State television has played footage of missiles soaring over Israeli cities, while hard-line newspapers have warned of a “doomsday scenario” if Israel strikes back.

Despite official efforts to project strength, however, the depth of the crisis for Iran is clear: Israel is crushing Tehran’s allies in the region, making it more vulnerable to attack. And while the United States has sought to limit the scope of Israel’s response, the strikes could destabilize Iran’s fragile economy, stir divisions among government opponents and undercut hopes that the country’s new, pro-reform president would usher in an era of engagement with the West.

“We have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a visit to Baghdad last week, part of a whirlwind diplomatic tour across the Middle East to shore up support ahead of the strikes. “We are not afraid of war, we are ready for war, but at the same time we don’t want war,” he told reporters at a news conference with his Iraqi counterpart.

Iran’s leaders view Israel as increasingly unrestrained, analysts say, as it barrels through the region, ignoring pleas by the Biden administration to scale back the bombing and protect civilians in places such as Gaza and Beirut. In the past few months, Israeli intelligence and military forces have assassinated the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, invaded southern Lebanon and sent more troops into the Gaza Strip, where they have recently laid siege to the Jabalya refugee camp in the north.

“They have come to the conclusion that Israel wants to eliminate all of its threats,” Vali Nasr, a Middle East expert and senior professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said of the leadership in Tehran. “That includes Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.”

Iran attacked Israel on Oct. 1 as retaliation for the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut last month. The strike on Nasrallah also killed a general from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Abbas Nilforoushan.

Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, and at least two dozen munitions broke through the country’s air defenses, according to a Washington Post analysis. It was the second time Iran attacked Israel directly, after it fired off hundreds of missiles and drones in April. That attack was retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed two senior Iranian commanders at Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

Israel has not said how or when it will respond to the latest missile volley. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the United States earlier this month that he would avoid hitting Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, officials said.

On Saturday, Israel said a drone launched from Lebanon “targeted” Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea in the north, although there was no damage and neither he nor his wife were there. Netanyahu, in a statement, characterized the incident as an “attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife,” calling it “a grave mistake.”

President Joe Biden said Friday that he knew when and how Israel would attack, but declined to elaborate as he spoke with reporters during a visit to Germany. He said Israel’s killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Wednesday was an opportunity to “deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while … that stops the back and forth.”

Still, an aerial bombardment of targets in Iran could damage critical infrastructure and further harm the country’s struggling economy. Already, there are long lines at gas stations in the capital. Some residents say they are stocking up on food, and dozens of domestic flights have been canceled in anticipation of an attack.

“This is a wave of crisis like all the previous ones. Many people like myself have gotten numb as a result of years and years of crisis and don’t necessarily panic anymore,” said Masoud, a 42-year-old small-business owner from Rasht, in northern Iran. Like other Iranians interviewed, he spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his first name, for fear of reprisal by authorities.

But unlike previous times of increased tensions, civil unrest and economic crisis, he said, this time he’s concerned about greater economic fallout. He fears that the Iranian regime will be directly targeted by Israel, threatening people who depend on the government for their livelihoods.

Decades of U.S. sanctions, corruption and mismanagement have hobbled Iran’s economy, which remains highly dependent on oil exports. For ordinary Iranians, unemployment, soaring inflation and a weak currency have eroded standards of living.

Even if Israel avoided strikes on oil production facilities, it could target Iran’s refineries, analysts say.

“And that would potentially be something to hit in order to disrupt the domestic situation in Iran,” Colby Connelly, director of the economics and energy program at the Middle East Institute, said. “Maybe resulting in fuel shortages, you know, seemingly geared towards domestic instability.”

In recent years, Iran has seen waves of anti-government protests, including unrest that erupted in 2019 after authorities abruptly cut fuel subsidies, raising the price of gas virtually overnight.

In 2022, the death of a young woman in police custody set off a months-long nationwide uprising. More than 500 people were killed, according to the United Nations, and thousands more were arrested.

“No foreign attack can harm the Iranian people more than” the government has, said Babak, a 28-year old from Tehran.

Among opponents of the Iranian government, the prospect of Israeli strikes has triggered debate over whether to support the attack. Some Iranians, like Babak, say they hope a military strike will facilitate the downfall of the country’s leadership, while others warn that supporting Israel is dangerous and that any escalation will bring more suffering to Iran’s population.

“I know that it takes time, I know that everybody wants them gone right now, I want them gone yesterday,” Hamed Esmaeilion, an Iranian activist who now lives in Canada, said of the government.

His wife and daughter were killed in 2020 when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down a civilian airliner shortly after it took off from the airport in Tehran. He said he understands why some people are tempted to support a foreign attack on Iran, but he fears a darker future for the country if people seek political change through force.

“In a war, innocent people die, infrastructure is damaged,” Esmaeilion said, adding that recent conflicts in the region have not ushered in societies that are more open or democratic. “If they overthrow the regime, what is the replacement? It could be more repression.”

At the same time, those who support President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was elected in July, are worried that tensions with Israel, a key ally of the United States, will torpedo his administration’s early outreach to Western nations after years of isolation.

Arash, a 38-year-old engineer in Tehran, said the president’s supporters are disappointed but understand that he took office at a difficult time for the country. He was voted in after his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash.

Then, on the day he was inaugurated, Hamas’s Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

“We are going through one of the hardest years ever, Arash said. He added that this round of escalation between Iran and Israel appears more critical than in the spring.

“This time seems much more serious,” he said. “And now, more or less, everyone is thinking about war at the back of their minds.”