Analysis: Can Huskies become bowl eligible? Here’s UW’s path to 6 wins

SEATTLE – Seven weeks into the season, the Washington Huskies finally have time to breathe.

Washington has experienced some cathartic highs, like beating ranked Michigan at Husky Stadium, and some brutal lows, like its recent 40-16 loss against Iowa.

Coach Jedd Fisch and the Huskies have a 4-3 record entering the bye week. For context, Kalen DeBoer, Chris Petersen and Jim Lambright were 5-2 through their first seven UW games. Jimmy Lake, Rick Neuheisel and Keith Gilbertson were 4-3, like Fisch. Steve Sarkisian went 3-4. Tyrone Willingham was 1-6.

When Don James took over in 1975, the Huskies were 3-4 in his first seven games, although UW played Texas and Alabama during that stretch.

Fisch has repeatedly preached patience as he tries to rebuild a team with more than 40 new scholarship players and a new staff. He’s ahead of schedule based on his Arizona blueprint. Fisch was 1-11 during his first season with the Wildcats, and 5-7 in his second.

“I do believe as we’re building this program and going through this process, these things happen in year one,” Fisch said. “They happen probably everywhere in year one and we’re trying to find a way to get better.”

The Huskies can reach bowl eligibility this season if they win two of their final five games. Perhaps not an achievement based on the program’s historic success, but certainly not a guarantee considering UW’s attrition before the season.

Washington’s schedule will get more challenging. Three of UW’s five remaining opponents were ranked in the most recent AP Top 25 poll released last Sunday — Indiana, Oregon and Penn State — and the Huskies (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) have two trips to the Eastern time zone left. UW plays all three of the still undefeated Big Ten teams.

Here’s a brief look at the five opponents still to play on the Huskies’ schedule:

Oct. 26 at No. 16 Indiana

Washington returns from the bye week with another 9 a.m. PST kickoff, this time against a ranked Indiana team.

The Hoosiers (6-0, 3-0), under new coach Curt Cignetti, have been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. Indiana is undefeated through six games, and became the first Big Ten team to clinch bowl eligibility after beating Northwestern 41-24 on Oct. 5

Indiana is averaging 47.5 points per game, second in the country. Sixth-year quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s 292 passing yards per game ranks No. 11 nationally.

Yet the Hoosiers haven’t played a particularly difficult schedule. Indiana’s first three Big Ten opponents were UCLA, Maryland and Northwestern, who’ve combined for one conference win this season. It’s other wins are against FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte.

Rourke and Indiana play Nebraska at home this weekend in their first real test of the season before welcoming Washington to Bloomington, Ind. a week later.

Nov. 2 vs. USC

In the past, USC playing Washington at Husky Stadium was the epitome of high-level Pac-12 football. Two of the West Coast’s most storied programs battling out for regional supremacy, perhaps with conference title game implications on the line.

This season, however, the Trojans (3-3, 1-3) and Huskies are already likely out of Big Ten championship contention.

Like Washington, USC has endured an erratic season. It began coach Lincoln Riley’s third campaign at the helm with a 27-20 win against No. 8 LSU, before suffering its first loss of the season against No. 24 Michigan. But USC stumbled on the road against Minnesota on Oct. 5, then lost an overtime heartbreaker to No. 3 Penn State in Los Angeles.

USC travels to Maryland this weekend, then hosts Rutgers before heading north to Husky Stadium. Quarterback Miller Moss has 1,618 passing yards, ranking No. 22 in the country, but has also thrown five interceptions. USC’s defense, under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn, is allowing only 20.83 points per game.

Nov. 9 at No. 3 Penn State

The Huskies’ final east coast road trip is likely their most difficult of the season. UW travels to Penn State on Nov. 9 where it will experience the famed White Out game.

Penn State’s best win of the season was its 33-30 overtime victory against USC at the Coliseum, but it also holds a win versus No. 22 Illinois. Coach James Franklin’s team will play No. 4 Ohio State on the road one week before welcoming UW to Beaver Stadium.

The Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0) are 11-8 in White Outs since the tradition began in 2004, and Penn State has won the past four iterations of the game including a 31-0 shutout of Iowa in 2023. It hasn’t lost a White Out since 2018.

Penn State ranks No. 8 in total defense, allowing 262.5 yards per game, and No. 9 in scoring defense, giving up just 14.5 points per game.

Nov. 15 vs. UCLA

Possibly the only game Washington will be favored to win down the stretch, UCLA is having a horrid time in its new conference. Coach DeShaun Foster’s team hasn’t won since its season-opening 16-13 victory against Hawaii on Aug. 31.

The Bruins (1-5, 0-4) may not have a conference win by the time they head up to Seattle in mid-November, either. UCLA faces Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa in its next three games. Its 14.5 points per game ranks 132nd in the country, while its defense is allowing 28.5 points. UCLA is the only FBS team that hasn’t scored 10 touchdowns yet this season.

If the Huskies want to play an extra game this season, beating the Bruins on a Friday night in November is a must.

Nov. 30 at No. 2 Oregon

In a perfect world for Washington fans, the Huskies will already have bowl eligibility before heading south to Eugene, Ore. for the final regular-season game of the season. It’s certainly possible Washington will face No. 2 Oregon needing a win to reach a bowl game, however, while the Ducks (6-0, 3-0) are hoping to avenge their two losses to the Huskies during the 2023 season.

Oregon is coming off a signature 32-31 win against No. 4 Ohio State this past weekend after enduring a shaky start to the season. Coach Dan Lanning’s team has only two ranked matchups remaining on its schedule, though it’s possible Illinois and Michigan aren’t ranked by the time they play Oregon on Oct. 26 and Nov. 2, respectively.

Both Washington and Oregon have bye weeks before meeting in Eugene on Nov. 30.

Beating the Ducks might not have the same national relevance it did a season ago in Seattle – or in Las Vegas – but it would represent the perfect launching point for the Huskies entering 2025.

Of course, defeating the Ducks is easier said than done. Oregon averages 467.8 yards and 34.5 points per game. It’s held four of its six opponents below 15 points. Ohio State and Boise State, led by Heisman-hopeful running back Ashton Jeanty, being the only exceptions. Fisch is 0-2 against Oregon, conceding more than 40 points during Arizona losses in 2021 and 2022.