Washington: Latest poll shows one governor’s race candidate handily in lead

SEATTLE — Democrat Bob Ferguson holds a commanding lead over Republican Dave Reichert in the race for Washington governor, according to a new statewide poll.

The WA Poll shows Ferguson with 50% support among likely voters less than a month before the Nov. 5 general election, compared with 34% for Reichert. Another 16% of respondents said they’re undecided.

Democrats have held the Washington governor’s office since 1985 — the longest gubernatorial winning streak in the nation — and the poll shows them poised to continue that dominance barring a late change in the political climate.

Ferguson, the state attorney general since 2013, leads across virtually every demographic category, with particularly big margins among women and voters age 50 and over.

Reichert, the former U.S. Representative and King County sheriff, fares best among voters who say crime or border security is their top concern. The candidates are effectively tied among self-described independent voters, with Ferguson at 38%, Reichert at 36% and 26% undecided.

On each of five key issues — reproductive rights, education, the economy, affordable housing and public safety — in which respondents were asked which candidate they trusted more, a plurality favored Ferguson.

The gap was highest on reproductive rights, with 53% saying they trust Ferguson compared with 23% for Reichert. Even on public safety — Reichert’s signature issue — 48% say they trust Ferguson, compared with 34% for Reichert.

The poll of 703 likely voters is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. The margin of error for questions about the gubernatorial candidates is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

In a statement, Jeff Harvey, Reichert’s senior political adviser, noted ballots have started hitting mailboxes, “so the only poll that matters, and that we care about, is the one coming on November 5.”

Harvey added: “Our team is working day and night to share Dave’s message that he is the change we need to keep our communities safe and bring down our cost of living.”

Ferguson responded in his own statement that his message “of improving public safety, increasing affordability, and protecting reproductive freedom is resonating with Washingtonians concerned about Republican Dave Reichert’s support for Donald Trump’s policies.”

The poll results suggest Reichert has struggled to adequately increase his support since the Aug. 3 primary, in which Ferguson placed first in a 28-candidate field with 45%, while Reichert came in a distant second with 27%.

Already at a disadvantage in the Democratic-leaning state, Reichert also has had to contend with divisions in the state Republican Party, which endorsed his full-throated MAGA rival, Semi Bird, before the primary.

Bird declined to endorse Reichert for the general election.

The poll results indicate some MAGA-oriented voters may still be withholding support from Reichert, said Ken Alper of SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll for the Times and its partners.

“Meanwhile, I think there are also non-MAGA Republicans who aren’t happy about the top of the ticket, and they may be debating right now if they’re going to vote at all or not this cycle,” Alper said in an email.

He noted 7% of Republicans in the poll say they’re undecided for president, compared with 1% of Democrats. Similarly, 12% of Republicans polled said they’re undecided for governor, compared with 6% of Democrats.

“I think that’s why we’re not seeing real gains for Reichert since our primary polling,” Alper said.

Ferguson has also maintained a massive fundraising lead over Reichert, according to newly filed reports to the state Public Disclosure Commission.

Ferguson’s campaign raised about $2.4 million compared to $1.2 million for Reichert between Sept. 1 and Oct. 14, the filings show. Overall for the entire campaign, Ferguson has raised more than $13 million, to Reichert’s $6 million.

In addition, the Democratic Governors Association has piled on with more than $6 million in negative TV ads against Reichert, while the Republican Governors Association has spent nothing here.

Washington voters are electing their first new governor in 12 years following the decision by Gov. Jay Inslee to not seek a fourth term. Ballots were mailed this week and must be postmarked or placed in a drop box by Nov. 5.