Netflix’s 340% rally seen sputtering with sales growth past peak

After a breakneck rally that added more than $230 billion in value, Wall Street is indicating that peak Netflix Inc. may have arrived.

Shares in the streaming company soared almost 340% from a May 2022 low to their record high earlier this month. Revenue growth has been strong because of a password-sharing crackdown and the introduction of lower-priced, ad-supported subscriptions. But as the company gears up to report third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the close, some are concerned that those drivers may be running out of steam.

Netflix has had a period of “exceptional” execution, but it “had to lean more heavily on new growth drivers to keep revenue growth in the double digits, and some of these, like paid sharing, are likely pulling forward future growth,” Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar wrote. He recently downgraded the stock to underweight, saying that expectations for revenue growth seem too optimistic.

The rally has left Netflix shares within 3% of the average analyst price target, implying Wall Street doesn’t see the stock going much further in the next 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That puts it in the bottom 20 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index for implied returns, the data show.

Netflix is expected to report revenue growth of 14% in the third quarter, followed by a gradual deceleration for the next three periods. That’s down from a peak of 17% growth last quarter. Sales and average revenue per member have become key metrics for the company after its business-model shift to offer multiple pricing tiers.

As revenue growth slows, the stock may start to look too expensive to some investors. Netflix trades at 32 times forward earnings, above the Nasdaq at 26 times and much higher than other streaming providers like Walt Disney Co. at 19 times and Paramount at just seven times.

“The stock is very expensive, so they’re going to have to improve the “E” part of their “P/E” ratio if the stock is going to continue to advance,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. LLC. “They’re going to have to continue to expand their advertising partnerships globally to improve their profitability in a significant way.”

Bulls argue that Netflix still has plenty of ways to boost growth. Chief among them is raising prices. That runs the risk, however, of alienating price-sensitive customers who have shown a willingness to cut back on other non-essential spending, like online food deliveries and home and hobby goods.

Still, Netflix has demonstrated that it has a loyal base of subscribers that is willing to pay more for the service, according to Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.

“They have a lot of room to be able to raise the price and not lose customers,” Martin said .

Jefferies analyst James Heaney, who has a buy rating on the stock, agrees. “Netflix has become a “value” option rather than the “premium” offering it had marketed itself as in the past,” he wrote, noting that rival services at Disney+, MAX and Hulu are all more expensive than Netflix.

But price hikes are a lever the company can probably only lean on once in a while.

The shares would likely see a boost from any announcement of higher prices in the U.S., according to Citi analyst Jason Bazinet. Still, gains would be short lived as bullish estimates for earnings and revenue growth next year fade.

“We would expect shares to eventually trade lower as investors’ hopes for $25 in 2025 EPS are dashed.”