Dodgers vs. Mets 2024 NLCS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more
By The Athletic
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets both put away division rivals in the National League Division Series to keep their postseason hopes alive and reach the National League Championship Series.
The Dodgers overcame a 2-1 series deficit against the Padres, storming back to shut out San Diego in a decisive Game 5. The Mets took care of the Phillies in four games, with Francisco Lindor slamming the door on Philadelphia to give New York its first playoff series win at Citi Field.
This is the fourth time these teams have squared off in the postseason, with the Mets prevailing in the 2015 NLDS and 2006 NLDS, and the Dodgers taking the 1988 NLCS. This best-of-seven NLCS begins Sunday in L.A., with the winner advancing to the World Series to face either the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Guardians.
Pitching matchups
The Dodgers’ staff should be deeper than the Mets, and probably also better. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to sit 97 mph and look as sharp as he did in Game 5 of the NLDS, that gives the Dodgers an ace to throw against any other. Jack Flaherty is a good No. 2 and equal to any starter New York will throw out there. If the Mets have a better third starter, the Dodgers’ bullpen depth should help them zero out that difference. The Dodgers had 15 relievers who featured above-average stuff in the regular season, and they’ve showcased that depth this October. Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson and Michael Kopech have team to allow no runs in the postseason. If Vesia is injured, the Dodgers have other pitchers who can step forward.
But anything can happen in the playoffs. After all, Philadelphia probably had a better staff than the Mets, and yet it was the Phillies who imploded – they pitched to a 5.82 ERA overall in the NLDS while the Mets got 18 innings of four-run ball from Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. Those starters have been mixing it up well, and taking their inspiration from tragedy or whimsy. With Kodai Senga back in the fold – even with a couple of his pitches moving strangely and his velocity a little down – this might be a “just enough” kind of rotation.
It just feels like a high-wire act for New York – with all that below-average velocity from the starters, and a bullpen that somehow has an ERA around 4 despite a 12% walk rate and a below-average strikeout-minus-walk rate. No pitcher represents how shaky, yet successful this bullpen has been in the postseason better than the closer. Edwin Díaz has blown a save, is sporting a postseason ERA over 8, and has five walks in 3⅓ innings, but he also has seven strikeouts, a save and a win. Just enough from this staff will be four-ish innings from the starter, good bridge work from previous starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill, and a version of Díaz that somehow finds his command that’s been missing. Maybe a few days off will help, given his heavy usage.
The Dodgers just have fewer questions in the bullpen. That’s mostly what gives them the advantage in this pitching matchup.
Why the Dodgers will win
They may be the most talented team left in the playoffs along with its hottest bullpen. Mookie Betts’ bat came to life. The Dodgers’ lineup has shown depth and length, with Kiké Hernández again emerging as a clutch October performer in their NLDS-clinching win. They still employ Shohei Ohtani.
And, believe it or not, the strength of their bullpen might be giving them enough pitching to make the rest of the pieces of the puzzle work. Dodgers pitchers combined to hold the Padres to 24 consecutive scoreless innings to end the series, the longest consecutive stretch in franchise postseason history. Yamamoto was sterling in the series clincher and could be back to start for the Dodgers as soon as Game 4 of the NLCS. Flaherty is lined up to pitch Game 1. And their bullpen could likely run back the bullpen game it successfully executed in Game 4 of the NLDS.
Why the Mets will win
Well, there’s this whole “Mets Magic” thing going on. You know, the fast-food mascot, the “playoff pumpkin” and the catchy pop song. If that’s not enough for your taste, the Mets proved long ago that they’re a pretty good baseball team.
The Mets’ lineup has displayed the kind of versatility that tends to come in handy in October. They can string together hits for a big inning late in games and they also have the ability to overwhelm pitching staffs with their power. The Mets’ defense is as crisp as it has been all year. And their starting rotation continues to surprisingly impress – more often than not in the playoffs, a Mets starter has thrown at least six innings. As long as the rotation continues to pitch deep into games, their bullpen becomes less concerning.
The Mets do not have a dominant bridge to Díaz, who has also looked shaky. But the return of Senga allows the Mets to be creative elsewhere. He is still limited but should be able to give the Mets more than the two innings he threw in Game 1 against the Phillies. Senga’s presence allows the Mets to use Megill, a righty, and Peterson, a lefty, out of the bullpen .