Sam Farmer’s Week 6 NFL picks

NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 10-4 (.714); season 45-33 (.577).

Jaguars (1-4) vs. Bears (3-2)

Sunday in London, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Bears by 1½ O/U: 44½.

Jacksonville’s offense woke up against Indianapolis, but the Colts have the league’s worst defense. Chicago’s defense is considerably better. Still, familiarity matters with these international games (game at London).

Pick: Jaguars 23, Bears 20

Commanders (4-1) at Ravens (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 6 ½. O/U: 52 ½.

The Commanders have averaged 38 points the past three weeks, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is getting better by the game. The Ravens are hot too, and have the upper hand in experience.

Pick: Ravens 34, Commanders 27

Cardinals (2-3) at Packers (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 5 ½. O/U: 49 ½.

Whereas the Cardinals are a bit all over the map, the Packers are winning the games they’re supposed to win. That’s the mark of a solidifying team. An upset is certainly possible, but Green Bay should hold on at home.

Pick: Packers 28, Cardinals 24

Texans (4-1) at Patriots (1-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 7. O/U: 38½.

In the past three weeks – all New England losses – the Patriots have scored three, 13 and 10 points. The Texans are solid and have proven over and over they know how to win close games. This won’t be as close.

Pick: Texans 27, Patriots 13

Buccaneers (3-2) at Saints (2-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 3½. O/U: 41½.

After a red-hot start, the Saints’ offense has cooled in their past two games and will be without injured quarterback Derek Carr. Tampa Bay is coming off a high-scoring overtime loss at Atlanta in which Baker Mayfield played great. Leaning toward the visitor.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 24

Browns (1-4) at Eagles (2-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 8½. O/U: 43½.

The Eagles are rested after an off week and could be getting receiver A.J. Brown back from his hamstring injury. The Browns have lost three in a row and have yet to score more than 18 points.

Pick: Eagles 28, Browns 16

Colts (2-3) at Titans (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 1½. O/U: 43½.

Quarterbacks Will Levis of Tennessee and Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis both are optimistic they can return for this. “Oh … yay,” say their fan bases, whose teams are better when starting backups.

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 21

Chargers (2-2) at Broncos (3-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 35½.

The Chargers need to restart their run game, but that won’t be easy against a Broncos defense that’s clicking nicely. Denver got off to a bumpy start but has won three in a row and is gathering momentum.

Pick: Broncos 20, Chargers 18

Steelers (3-2) at Raiders (2-3)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 36½.

The Steelers are coming off a spirit-crushing, last-second loss to Dallas and QB Justin Fields had an uneven performance; this week could mark the return of veteran Russell Wilson. The Raiders, who are benching quarterback Gardner Minshew and turning to Aidan O’Connell, are wildly inconsistent.

Pick: Raiders 21, Steelers 20

Falcons (3-2) at Panthers (1-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Falcons by 6½. O/U: 47½.

Two teams heading in opposite directions. A win would give the Falcons three consecutive victories within the NFC South. The Panthers didn’t do anything particularly well in their loss at Chicago last week.

Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 21

Lions (3-1) at Cowboys (3-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 52½.

QB Jared Goff is coming off a brilliant game for the Lions, but Detroit’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Cowboys lurched to victory at Pittsburgh despite three turnovers. This figures to be high-scoring.

Pick: Lions 31, Cowboys 27

Bengals (1-4) at Giants (2-3)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 3½. O/U: 48½.

The Giants are coming off their most complete performance in a win at Seattle. Cincinnati went down to the wire against Baltimore, and Joe Burrow is starting to look like the excellent quarterback we know.

Pick: Bengals 28, Giants 24

Bills (3-2) at Jets (2-3)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Bills by 2½. O/U: 40½.

Both teams are riding two-game losing streaks and looking to get back on track. Neither offense is clicking. Teams frequently get a bump when they make a change at coach, which the Jets did Tuesday.

Pick: Bills 27, Jets 23