Washington hosts No. 10 Michigan for CFP rematch: What to watch, plus prediction

Oct. 4, 2024 Updated Fri., Oct. 4, 2024 at 4:45 p.m.

By Andy Yamashita Seattle Times

Washington (3-1, 1-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 10 Michigan (4-1, 2-0)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Saturday

Where: Husky Stadium

TV: NBC

Latest Line (via ESPN Bet): Washington -2.5, Total 41.5

UW key players

QB Will Rogers: 74.8% completions, 1,354 pass yards, 110 completions, 147 attempts, 10 pass TDs

RB Jonah Coleman: 521 rush yards, 72 carries, four rush TDs, 7.2 yards per rush, 13 catches, 106 receiving yards

LB Carson Bruener: 30 tackles, two TFL, one INT, three PBU

S Kamren Fabiculanan: 18 tackles, 0.5 TFL, one PBU

Michigan key players

QB Alex Orji: 55.6% completions, 133 pass yards, 20 completions, 36 attempts, three pass TDs, one INT, 32 carries, 113 rush yards

RB Kalel Mullings: 540 rush yards, 77 carries, six rush TDs, 7.0 yards per rush

LB Ernest Hausmann: 28 tackles, 2.5 TFL, one sack, one PBU

DB Will Johnson: Four games, 11 tackles, one TFL, two INT, three PBU

Contain Mullings and Edwards

Michigan hasn’t been shy about its offensive identity. The Wolverines have 974 rushing yards through five games, averaging 194.8 yards per game and 5.13 yards per carry. Their 190 carries this season rank 21st among FBS teams, though several programs have only played four games this season.

Eight of their 15 touchdowns this season have been on the ground.

Fifth-year running back Kalel Mullings is the team’s leading rusher. Through five games, he’s accumulated 540 yards on the ground and six touchdowns. He’s rushed for more than 100 yards in each of his past three games, including a career-best 159-yard performance in Michigan’s 27-24 win against USC.

Senior Donovan Edwards – who rushed for 104 yards and two touchdowns against UW in the College Football Playoff championship game – has added 258 yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Huskies were unable to keep Edwards and former Wolverine running back Blake Corum in check when these teams met in Houston in January. UW will have to do a better job if it wants to upset Michigan this time around.

Senior Donovan Edwards – who rushed for 104 yards and two touchdowns against UW in the College Football Playoff championship game – has added 258 yards and two touchdowns this season

Make Orji throw

Michigan’s quarterback situation hasn’t been pretty this season. Former walk-on Davis Warren won the starting job before the Wolverines’ first game. He threw six interceptions against two touchdowns in three games while completing 66% of his passes for 444 yards.

Moore replaced Warren with junior Alex Orji following Michigan’s 28-18 win against Arkansas State.

With Orji under center, Michigan beat USC and Minnesota by a combined six points. He’s 17-for-30 passing during his past two games for 118 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Orji added 55 yards rushing during the past two games.

Washington’s pass defense – which ranks No. 6 nationally – turned up the intensity against an inexperienced quarterback when UW beat Northwestern 24-5 on Sept. 21. The Huskies have a chance to do it again when they face Orji, who’s never passed for more than 100 yards in a game in his career.

Yamashita’s prediction

Let’s start with the score. Michigan’s past two games have both been 27-24 wins, so that seems like a good start.

It feels weird to pick the unranked, two-loss Huskies considering they host the No. 10 team in the country, but the Wolverines certainly have their flaws. There’s a not-so-distant reality in which Washington could’ve been the 4-1 or 5-0 ranked team in this matchup and Michigan is the two-loss unranked team.

Again, this game might come down to Washington proving it can get out of its own way. In two competitive games, it hasn’t. Yet Michigan has a worse quarterback situation than either Washington State or Rutgers.

Prediction: Huskies 27, Wolverines 24