Hurricane center forecasts Gulf system will douse Florida while raising odds to develop

ORLANDO, Fla. — Odds are back up that a system developing in the Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical depression or storm before it makes its way to Florida next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, forecasters are looking at the trough of low pressure currently with disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico that is expected to form into a larger area of low pressure in the southwestern to south-central Gulf this weekend.

“Thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week,” forecasters said. “Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.”

The NHC gives it a 40% chance for development in the next seven days.

If it becomes powerful enough, it could form into Tropical Storm Milton.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne says rains and potential for flooding in Florida will begin Sunday and run through mid-week.

“Models indicate a stationary boundary will set up somewhere across the central or southern Florida Peninsula and stay in place until later Wednesday or Thursday before drifting farther south,” said NWS meteorologist Brendan Schaper. “At least one or two disturbances are expected to ride along the front, crossing the state of Florida and bringing the chance for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall to the area.”

He said some models bring the potential tropical system across South Florida by midweek.

“Whether a low pressure system takes on tropical characteristics or not, it is clear that heavy rain and flooding potential will be increasing as the week wears on,” he said. “Exact locations and amounts are to be determined, though the southern half of east Central Florida will be likely be favored for higher rain totals.”

That area has been deemed at marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center.

The state’s east coast is also subject to heavy surf from distant Category 4 major Hurricane Kirk in the Atlantic.

“A high risk of rip currents also exists at the beaches today, likely lasting into the weekend and next week, as persistent east-northeast winds create increasingly rough surf. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged,” he said.

The NHC continued to track both Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie in the Atlantic, but they are not a direct threat to land.

As of 5 a.m., Kirk was located about 1,010 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds increased to 145 mph, making it a Category 4 storm and the season’s third major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 195 miles from its center.

“A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.,” forecasters said. “Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week.”

As of 5 a.m., Leslie was located about 645 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 60 miles from its center.

“A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into Monday,” forecasters said. “Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.”

The season so far has 12 named storms including seven hurricanes and five tropical storms.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.