Things to watch when Washington faces No. 1 Oregon, plus prediction
SEATTLE – Here are some things to watch when Washington (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) travels to play at No. 1 Oregon (11-0, 8-0).
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene.
TV: NBC
Latest Line (via ESPN Bet): Oregon -19, Total 51.5
All-time series: Washington leads 63-48-5; Most recent matchup: Dec. 1, 2023, Washington won 34-31
Familiar foe
On Jan. 1, Jabbar Muhammad had two tackles and three pass breakups for the Huskies as Washington beat Texas 37-31 to win the 2024 Sugar Bowl and advance to the College Football Playoff championship game.
Muhammad, a 5-foot-10, 185-pound cornerback who transferred to Washington from Oklahoma State, was instrumental to UW’s magical 2023 season.
He finished the season with 46 tackles, five tackles for a loss, two sacks, three interceptions, a fumble recovery and 20 deflected passes in 15 games wearing purple and gold.
Then, he transferred to Oregon.
Through 11 games with the Ducks, Muhammad has 31 tackles, 0.5 tackles for a loss and nine pass breakups.
Sixth-year Washington safety Kamren Fabiculanan said he has “no hate” for Muhammad, but UW fans will watch Oregon’s No. 7 and wonder what it might’ve looked like if he had chosen to stay.
Big fourth downs
Oregon coach Dan Lanning has been aggressive on fourth downs since taking over the Ducks before the 2022 season.
Few opponents have benefited from his approach like Washington.
In 2022, Lanning chose to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his 34-yard line with the game tied late in the fourth quarter. But Oregon running back Noah Whittington slipped, turning the ball over on downs and allowing UW to kick the go-ahead field goal. The Huskies won 37-34.
During the first meeting between the programs in 2023, Oregon failed to convert all three of its fourth-down attempts as UW won 36-33. The Ducks converted both of their attempts against the Huskies during the Pac-12 championship game less than two months later, but still came up short – losing 34-31 in Las Vegas.
In three games against Washington, Lanning has gone for it on fourth down nine times. Oregon has converted five .
Lanning has dialed back his fourth-down aggression this season. Through 11 games, the Ducks have only attempted 15 fourth-down conversions. Their 60% conversion rate ranks 39th nationally. For context, Oregon attempted 25 fourth-down conversions in 14 games a season ago.
Washington, however, has struggled to get off the field on fourth down this season. The Huskies have allowed opponents to convert 57.1% of their fourth downs – No. 86 in the country – significantly higher than the 40.5% of fourth-down conversions they surrendered in 2023.
Can Washington pressure Gabriel?
Washington still ranks No. 5 in the country in passing yards allowed entering Saturday. Oregon’s sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel, however, will be the best signal caller the Huskies have played this season.
Gabriel, who played three seasons at Central Florida and two at Oklahoma, is the all-time FBS passing touchdown leader and leads the Big Ten in passing by 185 yards. He’s been aided by one of the best offensive lines in college football.
The Ducks have only allowed 12 sacks this season. Seven were registered during Oregon’s first two games of the season against FCS-school Idaho and Boise State – meaning the Ducks have surrendered five sacks during the past nine games. UW, in comparison, has allowed 24 sacks this season and gave up five sacks in one game against No. 4 Penn State.
Washington’s pass rush has also been inconsistent. UW went three games without a sack against No. 10 Indiana, USC and Penn State before totaling six sacks against UCLA. The return of junior Russell Davis II, an Arizona transfer who missed the first eight games of the season injured, has been a massive boost for Washington’s defensive line.
But Davis and the rest of UW’s edge rushers have a difficult task before them if they’re going to disrupt Gabriel, as Oregon’s tackles, Ajani Cornelius and former Rainier Beach (Seattle) High School standout Josh Conerly Jr., are two of the best in the country.
Yamashita’s prediction
Washington has its work cut out for itself. Oregon has been steady after a slow start by its standards, and a one-point win against No. 2 Ohio State in early October helped propel them through a relatively easy second-half of the schedule. It survived a scare in its recent outing against Wisconsin, rallying for a 10-point fourth quarter to secure a 16-13 comeback win.
The Huskies have their own quarterback questions to answer, too, as coach Jedd Fisch chooses between fifth-year senior Will Rogers and freshman Demond Williams Jr. Lanning, meanwhile, will be desperate for a cathartic win against Washington. He’s also 2-0 against Fisch, scoring more than 40 points in each game.
Prediction: Ducks 35, Huskies 24