Europe set for coldest winter since Ukraine war, posing energy risk

Europe is set for the coldest winter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pushing up already elevated energy costs as the continent dips into its gas reserves at a faster-than-usual rate.

Temperatures between now and March are set to remain mostly below levels seen in the last two years, according to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. That’s likely to push heating demand to the highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to data from Maxar Technologies Inc.

However, this winter, like the previous two, temperatures are expected to stay above seasonal norms, the forecaster added.

Yet, the continent remains vulnerable to weather disruptions. A cold winter would put more pressure on already elevated gas and power prices. This could coincide with a halt in gas flows through Ukraine from Jan. 1, when temperatures typically fall to their lowest levels.

Freezing weather and low-wind conditions have already resulted in faster-than-usual withdrawals from gas storage sites this month. That raises concerns about late winter and next summer’s restocking season.

An escalation in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine adds to Europe’s energy risks.

Any extended periods of colder weather would come from the so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming weather event, which leads to a weaker polar vortex, according to Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at forecaster Atmospheric G2. The polar vortex is the dynamic which confines colder conditions to the Earth’s poles.

“We are currently closely monitoring the November pattern, as it is looking more in line with those of winters that did have an SSW eventually,” Pedrini said over email. That may “slightly” increase the odds of such an event later this winter, he added.

Maxar expects mostly mild conditions for northern and central Europe, with any colder temperatures focused primarily on the south, like Italy and the Balkans, according to Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at the forecaster.

Temperatures are expected to dip in December, according to Weather Services International, with heating demand rising across Europe to levels exceeding seasonal norms. In Oslo, the mean temperature is forecast to drop as low as -12C on Dec. 8, which is 9C below the 30-year average.