It may be a soggy, snowy Thanksgiving for some. Find out where.
As you douse potatoes and turkey with gravy on Thanksgiving, Mother Nature may douse millions across the northeastern U.S. United States with wet weather.
The top of this storm could blanket parts of New England with snow - like sweet potatoes topped with marshmallow.
The unsettled weather comes amid a pattern transition, with several Arctic air masses forecast to move into the central and eastern United States from late November into early December.
I can hear your suitcase saying: “Pass the extra sweater, hold the T-shirt.”
More than 100 million people across 38 states are expecting a Thanksgiving high temperature of less than 40 degrees. Parts of just eight states will probably experience highs above 70 degrees.
Despite the cold and windy conditions, predominantly dry weather is forecast from Friday through the weekend - outside of the Great Lakes, where heavy, lake-effect snow is possible.
For much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the last soggy Thanksgiving was in 2020.
Looking further back, since 2000, Philadelphia has had five rainy Thanksgivings, Washington and Boston seven, and New York City eight.
These stats would suggest that the region is due for some precipitation.
What to know about the holiday weather
On Wednesday, typically one of the busiest travel days of the year, accumulating snow is expected across the Rocky Mountains from Colorado into New Mexico. Denver could awaken to several inches of snow.
This will probably be preceded by rain and mountain snow across California, the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West on Monday and Tuesday, as the map below shows.
A swath of light to moderate rain is expected to extend across Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee on Wednesday. Light, wet snow could blossom on the northern edge of this rain shield, potentially falling in northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan.
On Wednesday night, the storm system is expected to strengthen, as an Arctic air mass to the north begins to interact with a surge of warmer, moister air from the Gulf of Mexico.
This will probably lead to unsettled conditions on Wednesday night, with thunderstorms possible for the Southeast and rain moving across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Meanwhile, moderate to heavy wet snow could develop in northern Pennsylvania and western and central New York, as well as in southern Ontario, Canada.
The storm - having been in Mother Nature’s oven for several days - may come out as a mature coastal storm on Thanksgiving Day, with rain for coastal areas of the Northeast and New England and accumulating snow for interior New England, where totals could be heavy and snarl travel.
The heaviest snow is possible in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
However, a small shift north or south in the storm’s track could change its effects. For example, a southward shift would enable more of the Northeast to be on the cold side of the system and therefore have a higher chance for snow, while a northward shift would have the opposite effect.
The warmest weather on Thanksgiving will probably be found across Florida and Arizona.
A polar plunge is expected
A frigid air mass, currently over northern Russia, has booked a one-way ticket to the United States and will probably arrive in the Plains, Midwest and Mid-South on Thanksgiving Day.
The combination of the cold air and strong wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph is expected to make it feel like temperatures in the teens in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Thursday night - when the Packers play the Miami Dolphins.
The air mass will probably reach the East Coast on Black Friday.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees below average for the time of year across much of the eastern United States, but 15 to 30 degrees below average in Minnesota, the Dakotas and Montana - where high temperatures will be in the single digits.
Another Arctic air mass is forecast to reinforce the chill in the central and eastern states from late in the weekend into the week of Monday, Dec. 3 - but the West is expected to largely be sheltered from the core of the cold.
Will storms disrupt Thanksgiving travel?
Seasonal storms are always a problem this time of year, so make sure you’ve done your homework on dealing with delayed and canceled flights.
The Federal Aviation Administration said in its daily air traffic report Monday that wind may affect flights in Boston. The best way to stay on top of your own travel schedule is by downloading your airline’s mobile app and signing up to get notifications by phone, text, email or push alert.
Those apps can alert you to gate changes and cancellations in real time and offer you an easy way to rebook flights instead of getting in line at customer service.
Could the forecast change?
The forecast could change, slightly, but sweeping changes are unlikely.
This is because the atmospheric disturbance that will drive the Thanksgiving storm is still swirling offshore of the Pacific Northwest as of early Monday.
Once it reaches land, weather balloons and aircraft will begin to more readily sample the atmospheric profile around the storm, which can lead to improved projections of its future path.
Until then, computer models rely largely on satellite data for sampling the storm’s characteristics, which don’t always paint a complete picture.
Assuming the forecast remains consistent, rain, snow, wind and Arctic air are all on the holiday menu.