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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

WA shifted (slightly) right in 2024, though many counties moved left

By Gene Balk Seattle Times

Washington, as it turns out, moved to the right in the 2024 presidential election, just like every other state.

In the days immediately after the election, it appeared Donald Trump had underperformed in Washington compared with 2020, the opposite of what happened across the rest of the nation. A number of news outlets, including the Seattle Times, reported Washington had bucked the national trend and moved to the left in 2024.

It was true at the time, but it didn’t hold. Trump’s percentage in the state increased a little as more votes were counted. As of Tuesday, he won about 39% of ballots cast, outperforming his 38.8% result in 2020. Of course, that’s a tiny change, and Kamala Harris easily won Washington with around 57.3% of the vote. As far rightward swings go, this one was minuscule.

Some local Democrats, I imagine, may have taken pride in reports that the state was an outlier in this national swing to the right, so the fact that it turned out not be true will come as a disappointment.

But for what it’s worth, many Washington counties did shift left, even though the state overall did not. Analysis of election results as of Tuesday shows in 17 of the state’s 39 counties, Trump did worse this year than he did in 2020.

Nearly half of Washington counties shifted leftward in 2024

In 17 of Washington’s 39 counties, Donald Trump got a lower share of the vote in 2024 than he did in 2020. In the other 22 counties, Trump outperformed his 2020 numbers. The largest shift to the left was in Jefferson County and the largest to the right was in Franklin County.

King County isn’t among those 17, but the improvement in Trump’s performance in the state’s most populous county this year was negligible. In 2020, Trump got about 22.2% of the vote in King, only a fraction lower than the 22.3% he won in 2024. In fact, this change in Trump’s percentage was the smallest of any county in the state.

Snohomish and Pierce counties also shifted right in 2024, both by less than 1 percentage point. In Kitsap County, though, Trump did worse this year by more than 1 percentage point.

Among the counties that moved to the left, the biggest change was in Jefferson County, where Port Townsend is located. This year, Trump only won 25.2% of the vote in Jefferson, which is one of the bluest counties in the state. In 2020, Trump got 28% of the vote, meaning Jefferson County swung away from the Republican ticket by nearly 3 percentage points.

Adjacent Clallam County, home to Port Angeles, had the second biggest shift to the left among Washington counties. Clallam is also a reliably Democratic county, though not nearly as blue as Jefferson. This year, Trump won 44.5% of the vote in Clallam, down from 46.8% in 2020.

Another Puget Sound county rounds out the top three: Island, which includes Oak Harbor, moved to the left by more than 2 percentage points. In 2020, Trump won 42.2% of the vote, but only managed to get around 40% in 2024.

The majority of the state’s counties – 22 of them – moved to the right in this year’s election, and for a few on the eastern side of the state, the shift was quite large.

Franklin County, where Pasco is located, had the state’s most dramatic shift to the right. While Trump handily won Franklin in 2020 with 55.7% of the vote, he improved his performance here by more than 4 percentage points, winning 60.1% this time.

Adams County also moved to the right by a little over 4 percentage points, with Trump increasing his share of the vote from 66.6% in 2020 to 70.7% in 2024.

Yakima ranked third by this metric, with a rightward swing of 3 points. Trump won 52.6% in 2020 and 55.6% this year.

Trump only won 22.2% of the vote in San Juan County, which comprises the San Juan Islands, the lowest percentage of any county in the state. That was down about 1 percentage point from 2020. In that election year, Trump’s lowest share of the vote in Washington was in King County. This year, after its leftward swing, San Juan holds that distinction.

The state’s reddest county is Lincoln in Eastern Washington, and it got a little redder this year. Trump won 73.8% of the vote, up a little more than half a percentage point from 2020.