Things to watch: Can Northern Arizona slow Eastern Washington’s red-hot rushing attack?

FLAGSTAFF, Arizona – The records are what they are.

To the Eastern Washington football team, Saturday’s game in Flagstaff is still a big one.

“This is a very important game for the guys that are going to come back next year and for the guys leaving,” EWU senior cornerback Darrien Sampson said.

“They beat us last year on the ‘Red’ and we have a chance to go 4-4 in the league and potentially knock them out of the playoffs as well.”

This will be the last college football game for nearly two dozen Eastern Washington seniors. On the heels of back-to-back victories, they are hoping to end the season with one more win than the program had last year.

As Sampson pointed out, another Big Sky victory would be an important one for the Eagles (4-7, 3-4), who are hoping to avoid a third consecutive season with a losing record in conference play. The 21st-ranked Lumberjacks (7-4, 5-2) are playing for a chance at a playoff spot.

EWU associate head coach Marc Anderson said this week he thinks the Eagles are playing their best football of the season.

“We’re really found our identity,” Anderson said. “You look at the record and you’d think there wouldn’t be a lot of confidence, but there’s a little bit of confidence and a swagger that we can go toe to toe with anybody.”

Here are three things to watch for as the Eagles line up against the Lumberjacks :

1. Can EWU’s rushing attack be slowed? The methodical way Eastern ran the ball last weekend was the most impressive aspect in its 77-42 victory over Idaho State. In setting a program record with 478 rushing yards, the Eagles did so gaining 9.2 yards per carry and with just one rush over 31 yards (Michael Wortham’s 65-yard touchdown run).

So effective were they on first and second downs that they only faced six third downs the whole game.

NAU has held opponents to 4.2 yards per rush this season, sixth fewest in the Big Sky, but it hasn’t faced Montana State or Eastern, the conferencee’s top two rushing attacks.

NAU head coach Brian Wright said the Lumberjacks have received enough from their defense, but he also recognized the challenges Eastern presents.

“At times, we’ve created turnovers, and that’s been big,” he said. “That’s gotten us some key stops. At times, we’ve been able to put pressure on the quarterback, and so that has helped. At times, we’ve played some good coverage, and for the most part we’ve been good against the run.”

Eastern has three quarterbacks and two running backs who can consistently run the football. The Lumberjacks will need this to be one of those times if they are to keep the Eagles from trampling them.

2. Which team gets key stops? One of the most glaring contrasts in the game is in third-down conversion rates. While the Eagles have the conference’s best third-down offense (achieving a first down 57.3% of the time), the Lumberjacks boast the best third-down defense (allowing first downs 28.9% of the time).

A big reason for Eastern’s success in that regard has been its ability to run the ball. NAU’s success in this regard may just speak to its toughness and resilience.

But NAU also just hasn’t allowed all that many first downs period: 178, compared to the 265 Eastern’s defense has allowed. The Eagles’ offense has achieved 276, compared to the Lumberjacks’ 231.

3. Will NAU’s offense find a rhythm? One week after Eastern had its way with Northern Colorado’s defense, the Lumberjacks went to Greeley and put up 44 points and 535 yards on the Bears’ defense in a dominant 44-3 victory.

It was NAU’s second-highest yardage total of the season, and it came on the heels of a 477-yard performance the week before against Cal Poly.

Eastern’s defense has had issues stopping most of its opponents this season, and if its offense can continue dominating it may not need that many stops.

But NAU will be playing to improve its playoff resume, and a victory over the Eagles may qualify as its best of the season.

That motivation, along with home field, should give the Lumberjacks plenty of fuel to do everything they can to keep up with the Eagles.