Mariners position analysis: Can J.P. Crawford return to form at SS?
SEATTLE – J.P. Crawford stared off in the distance, trying to think of the proper words to say. Trying to sum up the 2024 season for himself and the Mariners wasn’t simple or enjoyable.
He didn’t want the anger and disappointment from various forms of failure throughout the season to come rushing out, though a rant would’ve been understood.
He hadn’t felt this disheartened since he was in Philadelphia.
“It’s been the most frustrating year I’ve ever had,” he said quietly on the last day of the regular season. “It’s been tough.”
After a breakout season at the plate in 2023, where he was one of the Mariners’ most consistent producers, turning every plate appearance into a pitch-filled personal war with the pitcher, Crawford struggled to stay healthy and produce. And the more he tried to find ways to provide help for a scuffling team, the more he struggled.
“It’s been one of those years,” he said. “Nothing went right at the plate. I can hold my head up at the end of the day, because I worked my ass off every day trying to get better and just trying to improve. Unfortunately, you hit balls hard, and they get caught a lot this year. I’m not making excuses. I’ve got to be better, but it was just one of those years.”
Current depth chart
MLB: J.P. Crawford/Dylan Moore
Triple-A Tacoma: Leo Rivas/Ryan Bliss/Cole Young
Double-A Arkansas: Josh Hood
High-A Everett: Colt Emerson/Axel Sanchez
Low-A Modesto: Felnin Celesten
Key number: 1.6
The FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) generated by shortstop J.P. Crawford in 105 games played in the 2024 season. It was a significant drop from the 4.9 fWAR Crawford accumulated in the 2023 season and his lowest total in a normal regular season since 2019 when he posted a 1.1 fWAR in 93 games.
Key offseason question
After an abysmal 2024 season that was sidetracked by injuries, can J.P. Crawford refind production closer to his 2023 output?
Key quote
“We will get a better version of J.P. next year. He hasn’t had his greatest year, but he’s shown us over time how good he can be. My guess is we’ll get a better version of J.P. next year.” – Jerry Dipoto, president of baseball operations
Overview
In an offseason where he and his wife, Kat, are expecting their first child – a baby girl – Crawford isn’t going to allow “just one of those years” as a reason not to put in more work in the offseason.
Nope, he planned to start his offseason training almost immediately after the season ended.
“You keep going cause that’s all you can do,” he said. “You can’t get down and depressed. I wasn’t raised like that. You get knocked down, you get back up. That’s what I’m going to do this offseason. I’m going to get to work on hitting as soon as we get out of here. I don’t think I’m going take any time off right after the season. I’m going to get going and then take it right into the season. I want to get right.”
While the juxtaposition between his 2023 and his 2024 seasons are glaring, perhaps it’s more indicative to look at Crawford’s last four full seasons to find a more viable projection of expectations.
2021: 160 games, 687 plate appearances, .273/.338/.376 slash line, 169 hits, 37 doubles, nine homers, 89 runs, 54 RBIs, 8.4% walk rate, 16.% strikeout rate, 3.1 fWAR
2022: 145 games, 603 plate appearances, .243/.339/.336, 126 hits, 24 doubles, three triples, six homers, 57 runs, 42 RBIs, 11.3% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, 2.2 fWAR
2023: 145 games, 638 plate appearances, .266/.380/.438 slash line, 142 hits, 35 doubles, 19 homers, 94 runs scored, 65 RBIs, 14.7% walk rate, 19.6% strikeout rate, 4.9 fWAR
2024: 105 games, 451 plate appearances, .202/.304/.321 slash line, 79 hits, 16 doubles, two triples, nine homers, 55 runs scored, 37 RBIs, 11.5% walk rate, 22.6% strikeout rate, 1.6 fWAR.
While most opposing professional scouts expected there to be some regression from Crawford from the 2023 production – fueled by changes made at Driveline – to the 2024 season, the fall wasn’t supposed to be so precipitous.
Injury did play some factor into the decline.
On April 24, Crawford felt tightness in his side during pregame batting practice in Texas. He was removed from the lineup for that game and placed on the 10-day injured list the next day with an oblique strain.
While Crawford hates to miss games for any reason, he felt like he was finally starting to gain some traction at the plate after an abysmal start to the season.
He started the season with only six hits in his first 51 plate appearances, including four walks and 11 strikeouts. But in the 10 games leading up to the oblique strain, Crawford had amassed 11 hits with seven walks and only seven strikeouts.
“It’s just frustrating,” Crawford said in the days that followed. “I was just feeling comfortable.”
The oblique strain kept him out the next 26 games. When he returned after only two rehab games, which was probably a bit premature, Crawford played in the Mariners’ next 55 games, starting 54 in a row. In 237 plate appearances, he posted a .207/.300/.365 slash line with 12 doubles, seven homers, 23 RBIs, 27 walks and 58 strikeouts.
On July 22 at T-Mobile Park, Crawford took an 86-mph change-up off his right hand. He suffered a fracture in the hand and would miss the next 31 games. After two rehab games with Tacoma and some simulated games at T-Mobile Park, he was reinstated from the injured on Aug. 28. The final month of the season yielded much of the same. Demoted to the bottom of the order, he posted a .194/.319/.245 slash line with three doubles, a triple, five RBIs, 14 walks and 26 strikeouts in 116 plate appearances.
Looking at MLB Statcast data, Crawford’s 2024 data wasn’t that much different from 2023. His average exit velocity dipped from 88.3 mph to 87.5 mph while his average launch angle dropped from 15.1 degrees to 13.2 degrees. That dip in launch ankle led to an increase in ground balls 39.1% to 45.7%. But his hard hit rate on balls in play actually improved from 36.2% to 37.5%.
His whiff rate on fastballs did climb from 12.5% to 18.8%. And his numbers against four-seam fastballs dipped from a .319 batting average/.524 slugging percentage in 2023 to .230/.327 in 2024.
“He was trying to get it all back by trying to pull homers and they needed him just to be a hitter,” an opposing scout said. “He fouled off good pitches trying to hit homers and his strikeout rate climbed.”
Crawford lamented about homers that missed going over by inches, including a possible grand slam in Colorado, and so many hard-hit balls that found gloves.
His batting average on balls in play dropped from .314 in 2023 to .248 in 2024. The league average is .300.
“It definitely takes a toll on you, when you square one up and it gets caught and you think you should get rewarded,” Crawford said. “I think that’s what (angers me) more, is when you get out like that, because you did everything you could in your power, and no results. And here we are.”
While it may be unrealistic to expect Crawford to return to the hitter he was in 2023, he’s certainly a better hitter than his production numbers in 2024. It’s not unfair to expect for him to produce an fWAR closer to 4.0, which would’ve put him in the top five AL shortstops this season.
He could be aided by not being viewed as such a significant contributor on offense. With Victor Robles looking comfortable at the top of the batting order and the addition of Randy Arozarena, Crawford, who turns 30 in January, could bat lower in the lineup and also be given requisite days off.
He has two years remaining on the five-year, $51 million contract he signed before the 2022 season. It lines up for top prospect Colt Emerson, who probably is two years away from being ready, to take over as the Mariners shortstop.
Emerson, who was selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2023 draft, has moved ahead of Cole Young as Seattle’s shortstop of the future. Injuries sidetracked parts of his 2024 season, limiting him to just 70 games. But some pro scouts believe that his natural talent and surprising maturity on the field could allow him to be a fast riser in Seattle’s system and debut at some point in the 2026 season.
But for any success this season, the Mariners will need Crawford to stay healthy and return to reasonable production levels.