Commentary: WSU presents perplexing puzzle for College Football Playoff committee
SEATTLE – At 4:45 p.m. Tuesday, Warde Manuel delivered a mission statement with a debatable detail. The first set of College Football Playoff rankings had just been revealed, as 25 teams staked spots in line outside college football’s most coveted club.
This club, of course, has 13 bouncers at the door – a committee of athletic directors, coaching legends and former players tasked with filling the expanded 12-team field.
“While the number of teams that will participate in the playoff has changed, the committee’s mission has not,” said Manuel, Michigan’s athletic director and CFP selection committee chair, during a media teleconference. “Our job is to rank the best 25 teams in college football based on the protocol which was written by the commissioners who run the CFP. We began this week with a blank piece of paper, just as we do every week. What happened last year does not matter.”
If he’s including last offseason …
It certainly matters for Washington State.
The Cougars present a perplexing puzzle for the CFP selection committee. Abandoned by their former Pac-12 partners, WSU and Oregon State struck a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West Conference, grabbing a lifeline with nine guaranteed games but largely suspect competition.
The good news? Coach Jake Dickert’s team has (mostly) moonwalked through the Mountain West minefield, amassing a 7-1 record – including nonconference wins over Power Four opponents Washington (5-4) and Texas Tech (6-3).
WSU is winning with an exciting offense – which ranks second nationally in plays of 30 yards or more (29), 12th in points per game (38.1), 13th in yards per pass attempt (8.9), 17th in pass efficiency rating (157.31), and 20th in total offense (448.4 yards per game) and red-zone touchdown percentage (71.88%).
The Cougars are motored by quarterback John Mateer, who has completed 61.2% of his passes and thrown for 2,153 yards with 18 passing touchdowns and six interceptions. The redshirt sophomore is also WSU’s leading rusher, adding 575 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
What’s more, WSU’s remaining schedule features Utah State (2-6), New Mexico (3-6), Oregon State (4-4) and Wyoming (2-7) – paving a luxurious path to 11-1.
The bad news?
WSU might be benefiting from a Mountain West mirage.
The Cougars are winning despite a defense that sits 85th nationally in points allowed per game (26.9), 87th in sacks per game (1.75), 107th in yards allowed per play (6.13), 107th in first downs allowed per game (21.5), 114th in yards allowed per game (124.4), 115th in opponent yards per carry (5.1) and 123rd in passing yards allowed per game (270.3).
The analytics also tell a damning tale. The Cougars rank 47th nationally in ESPN’s Football Power Index, below No. 40 Washington (which they outlasted at Lumen Field in September to win the Apple Cup). Their strength of schedule (which considers prior opponents) slots 93rd in the nation, and their remaining strength of schedule plummets to 121st out of 134 FBS programs. Their game control rank – which reflects how an average Top 25 team would handle the same schedule – sits an underwhelming 42nd, thanks to a string of uninspiring escapes.
Take the aforementioned Apple Cup, when WSU was outgained 452 to 381 and needed a stop on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 1:12 left to seal a 24-19 win.
Take the following week’s 54-52 double-overtime survival against San Jose State (5-3), whom the Cougars trailed 38-24 with 48 seconds left in the third quarter. It required a 52-yard WSU field goal as time expired to force overtime.
Take last month’s 29-26 win over San Diego State (3-5), which held a 26-14 lead early in the fourth quarter and outgained WSU 414 to 371.
It’s hard to argue that Dickert’s team has passed the eye test.
But there’s another test that matters even more.
“At the end of the day, it’s about winning,” Dickert said Monday, when asked about the Cougars’ close wins. “I think last year’s team on the other side of the state (UW) proved that. Sometimes it’s ugly and you’ve just got to find a way, but that’s what really good teams do. That’s what we’ve been able to do this year.”
Most of the time.
The exception arrived Sept. 28, when Boise State steamrollered the Cougars 45-24 on the blue turf at Albertson’s Stadium. The Broncos produced 276 rushing yards, 7.7 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns in a prime-time trouncing, while going 6 for 11 on third down and sacking Mateer eight times.
On Tuesday, Boise State (7-1) landed at No. 12 in the initial CFP rankings, with WSU trailing at No. 21. ESPN’s playoff predictor gives the Cougs a 13% probability – tied with Clemson for 21st in the country – to crack the final 12 teams that make the playoff.
Realistically, it would take a tidal wave of Top 25 collapses – by Notre Dame, SMU and Army, to name a few – to position the Cougars for an at-large bid.
My take? WSU’s strength of schedule is a blessing and a curse. The Cougars’ sheer lack of losses will keep them in the conversation, while their lack of signature wins will keep them out of the top 12.
But is it fair to spotlight a scar – that suspect strength of schedule – sustained via outside abandonment? To critique the Cougars for circumstances out of their control?
“We looked at them in terms of what they’ve done this season,” Manuel told the Times. “Their only loss was to Boise State, who’s ranked 12th, and they have four wins against teams above .500, but the best win was their win over Washington 24-19.
“While they’re playing consistent football, offense is putting up 38 points per game, we still felt as the deliberations occurred that at the present time the committee ranked them based on their body of work at 21 with a lot of football obviously left to play, and we’ll continue to monitor what all of these teams do as we progress during the season.”
That’s a long-winded way of saying:
Sympathy is not considered in the protocol to qualify for the CFP.
Not that Dickert’s team is asking for any.
“There’s going to be a lot of things as we go through the finish line that we cannot control, and it deserves zero of our attention,” the Cougars’ fifth-year coach said Monday. “I’m not going to stand up here politickin’ for anything. We have to go out there and execute better to win football games.”