Analysis: Breaking down NFC West race Seahawks likely need to win to make playoffs

SEATTLE – Losing five of their past six games didn’t completely extinguish the playoff hopes for the Seattle Seahawks.

But as you’d expect, it did do major damage to them.

ESPN’s models give the Seahawks just an 8% chance to make the playoffs.

Those odds are as high as they are because the Seahawks reside in the NFC West, the only division in the NFL that doesn’t have at least one team with six wins.

Arizona leads the division at 5-4 while the Rams and 49ers are 4-4 and the Seahawks 4-5.

That means the Seahawks are still in the division race, though even those odds are long. ESPN’s model gives the Seahawks a 5% chance to win the division.

Part of what hurts the Seahawks’ odds is that the team is on the bad end of most tiebreakers because of a 0-2 division record and 1-4 in the NFC.

There’s time to change that, of course, but anything less than 3-1 the rest of the way in the division and 5-2 in the conference is probably the worst they can do and still have a chance.

Which means the Seahawks’ best shot at making the playoffs is probably winning the NFC West.

So with that pleasant preamble, let’s look at the remaining schedules for the four NFC West teams with the Seahawks on their bye this weekend.

Seahawks (4-4)

Nov 17: at San Francisco (4-4)

Nov. 24: vs. Arizona (5-4)

Dec. 1: at New York Jets (3-6)

Dec. 8: at Arizona (5-4)

Dec. 15: vs. Green Bay (6-3)

Dec. 22: vs. Minnesota (6-2)

Dec. 26: at Chicago (4-4)

Jan. 4/5: at Los Angeles Rams (4-4)

Combined records of opponents remaining: 37-31 (54.4%).

Comment: According to Tankathon.com, the win-loss percentage of the Seahawks’ remaining opponents is tied for 10th in the NFL and is second among NFC West teams behind San Francisco.

The Seahawks face only one team that has a losing record, the 3-6 Jets. A long trip for a road game against a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers hardly looms as a sure thing.

The Seahawks might not be favored for any of their remaining games.

In fact, via lines listed on VegasInsider.com, the Seahawks are an underdog for every game for which there is an early line (there is not a line for the Nov. 24 Arizona game or any of the final weekend games).

After having played four of the past five games at home – all losses, with the only win in that span coming at Atlanta – the Seahawks play mostly away from Lumen Field, with three of the next four and five of the final eight on the road.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, they have played just as well on the road as they has at home most of the year, winning at New England and Atlanta and playing the Lions competitively.

To get to 9-8 and equal last year’s record, the Seahawks will have to go 5-3 the rest of the way, meaning winning at least two more road games. And 10-7 is likely the least that would be needed to take the division.

49ers (4-4)

Nov. 10: at Tampa Bay (4-5)

Nov. 17: vs. Seattle (4-4)

Nov. 24: at Green Bay (6-3)

Dec. 1: at Buffalo (7-2)

Dec. 8: vs. Chicago (4-4)

Dec. 12: vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-4)

Dec. 22: at Miami (2-6)

Dec. 30: vs. Detroit (7-1)

Jan. 4/5: at Arizona (5-4)

Combined record of opponents remaining: 43-33 (55.8%).

Comment: The 49ers are tied for having the sixth-toughest schedule remaining in the NFL. Trips on back-to-back weeks to cold-weather locales of Green Bay and Buffalo make it even more daunting.

Which puts more of an onus on the Seahawks to beat the 49ers on Nov. 17, especially if San Francisco loses to Tampa Bay on Sunday, to not lose the tiebreaker.

If the Seahawks don’t win that game, it may not matter a whole lot what the 49ers do the rest of the way.

The 49ers’ early unexpected losses and the schedule they have left make it far from a slam dunk that the defending NFC champs even make the postseason.

Via ESPN, the 49ers’ odds to make the playoffs are just 41% and 33% to win the division.

Cardinals (5-4)

Nov. 10: vs. New York Jets (3-6)

Nov. 17: Bye

Nov. 24: at Seattle (4-4)

Dec. 1: at Minnesota (6-2)

Dec. 8: vs. Seattle (4-4)

Dec. 15: vs. New England (2-7)

Dec. 22: at Carolina (2-7)

Dec. 29: at Los Angeles Rams (4-4)

Jan. 4/5: at San Francisco (4-4)

Combined record of opponents remaining: 29-38 (42%).

Comment: The Cardinals have set themselves up to make a run at the NFC West by winning their past three games and four of the past five.

Arizona faces the third-easiest schedule the rest of the way in terms of opponents’ won-lost record and has the best odds of any NFC West team via ESPN’s models to make the playoffs (49%) and win the division (43%).

The back-to-back games in December against a pair of 2-7 teams (New England and Carolina) looks especially favorable especially if Arizona is still better than .500 heading into it.

Arizona’s four losses hardly look bad – Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Green Bay.

But the Cardinals are hardly a dominant team, ranking 12th in total offense and 25th in total defense this week.

This week’s road game against the Jets looms surprisingly large. As noted, the Jets are just 3-6 but are coming off a win and still have Rodgers.

It’s the kind of game a legitimate contender wins.

Rams (4-4)

Nov. 11: vs. Miami (2-6)

Nov. 17: at New England (2-7)

Nov. 24: vs. Philadelphia (6-2)

Dec. 1: at New Orleans (2-7)

Dec. 8: vs. Buffalo (7-2)

Dec. 12: at San Francisco (4-4)

Dec. 22: at New York Jets (3-6)

Dec. 29: vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)

Jan. 4/5: vs. Seattle (4-4)

Combined record of opponents remaining: 35-40 (44.9%).

Comment: L.A. won its past three to go from potentially calling it a season and selling off veteran players to deciding to make a run at the division title.

The Rams have a pretty good path for moving up further with three of their next four games against three of the worst teams in the NFL sandwiched around a home game against the Eagles.

If they stay in it to the end, they have an edge with their last two games at home against two division foes.

Note

The Seahawks announced Wednesday they re-signed linebacker Jamie Sheriff to the practice squad. He had been released last week. Sheriff fills a roster spot created when they released linebacker Michael Dowell from the practice squad Monday.