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Republicans fight to keep their narrow majority in the House

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) quietly chats with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Sept. 24 during the unveiling of a new statue of Johnny Cash, inside Emancipation Hall on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Tom Brenner/For the Washington Post)
By Marianna Sotomayor Washington Post

The House majority remained too close to call Tuesday, with several key races undecided and the balance of power on Capitol Hill uncertain.

In the lead up to Election Day, independent polling and analysis hinted at a slight edge for Democrats, but many races remain toss-ups and it may be many hours – or days – before we know where things land.

The Democrats are fighting to flip four GOP-held seats, focusing their messaging on abortion rights, the cost of living, and opposition to former president Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. They hope Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy will give them a boost, particularly in suburban districts.

The Republicans are trying to cling to their razor-thin majority. They have campaigned on immigration, public safety and the economy, in some cases moderating their positions on abortion in a bid to try to hold swing districts in liberal states such as California, New York and Oregon.

Though the map still looks messy and hard to predict, analysts will be paying close attention to New York on Tuesday evening. There are four districts in New York that Joe Biden won in 2020 and Republicans won in 2022. If Democrats flip all these seats, they will have clinched the majority.

House Democrats flipped GOP Rep. Brandon Williams’s seat in Syracuse. The next race to watch is GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito on Long Island. If he manages to get reelected, it is likely, though not guaranteed, that Republicans will hold two other northern New York seats, strategists said.

Virginia could also be a bellwether. Virginia’s 7th District is more competitive than in the past. The race is between two Army veterans and lawyers: Eugene Vindman, a Democrat who played a role in Trump’s first impeachment, and Republican Derrick Anderson, who worked in the Trump administration. To stay competitive, Democrats must keep this seat, strategists said.

Democrats also hope to flip back Virginia’s 2nd District, which is represented by Rep. Jen Kiggans , R. However, public and private polls show momentum for Republicans.

Later Tuesday, House races in Nebraska and Iowa will be closely watched. It may take days to get key California calls.

A flip in the House – if it happens – would usher in a new era of Democratic leadership, with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries , D-New York, expected to be the first Black speaker.

Democrats were led by Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California for almost two decades before she stepped aside to allow Jeffries and his lieutenants, Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California, to spend two years learning the ropes.

It would end a chaotic period of Republican control that included the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy , R-California, and a motion to remove Speaker Mike Johnson , R-Louisiana, six months later.

Losing the House would destabilize Republican leadership. GOP lawmakers have privately suggested that it’s unlikely they would support Johnson as minority leader.

The party that controls the House will play a key role in national politics through the months ahead.

Congress must certify the election results on Jan. 6, four years after then-President Donald Trump’s supporters attacked the Capitol in hopes of overturning the 2020 election.

Congress must find a way to avert reaching the debt ceiling early in the term – or risk economic catastrophe. Lawmakers will also need to address an expiring tax law.