Dave Boling: You heard it here first (for like the seventh time) – this will be Gonzaga’s breakthrough year
If you’re going on past performance, you may be inclined to dismiss the following commentary.
I’ve written half a dozen columns over the years predicting that the impending college basketball season would climax with Gonzaga players parading with nets around their necks, proudly passing the NCAA Tournament championship trophy among them.
Those weren’t exactly out-on-a-limb opinions. The Zags men are always in the tournament and have not only made lengthy stays, but have advanced to the title game twice.
Something always got in the way. A sprained ankle here, some dubious foul calls there. Sometimes just bad matchups against powerful teams.
Even random things, like one of their best chances getting canceled by a global pandemic.
I won’t be foolish enough to suggest they capture the title this year because of karma debt or that the spinning wheel of good fortune and lucky bounces finally comes their way.
They’re a good pick this year because they are skilled, experienced and extremely versatile in the way they can attack defenses and counter matchups.
And the roster, top to bottom, seems on the rise.
The guys who stayed were trending upward on the way to their Sweet 16 in March.
And those who were brought in have intriguing skills and seemed to have been acquired with specific intent, being just the right pieces to complete the roster puzzle.
Not to forget the head coach, Mark Few, who spent the summer with the USA Olympic team in Paris. Don’t you think the experience of coaching LeBron James, Steph Curry, etc., should leave some residual gold dust he can sprinkle on this year’s Zags?
Yes, the absence of quintessential Zag Anton Watson is a loss. But it’s the only one, and it can be mitigated.
A couple of reasons for this being the year:
Four starters return. The group is so veteran that post Graham Ike has the least game experience (80 games), joining Ben Gregg (106 games), Nolan Hickman (104 games) and Ryan Nembhard (99 games).
They’re not just experienced, they’re now experienced with each other, in the same system under the same staff.
Don’t overlook the significance of the fact that every key player off last year’s team returned to GU rather than being lured away by a school that might have brighter prospects.
Nobody can better predict the competitiveness of a team than the players on the roster. So, trust these guys. They obviously sensed a building of critical mass.
Toss in new Zag Khalif Battle, who is entering his sixth season and fourth team, having played 101 games at Butler, Temple and Arkansas before arriving in Spokane with some fascinating statistics.
That group has seen everything, done everything, and played against just about everybody.
The eight-deep features a nice mix of four guards and four bigs, and looks as talented as any of the Zags predecessors. Play big, play small, play fast. Whatever.
Returners Nembhard, Hickman, Gregg and Ike are likely to be joined in the starting lineup at small forward by Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi. An All-West Coast Conference first-team selection last year, the 6-foot-7, 220-pound Ajayi would probably be considered most effective in filling the role of Watson. But maybe with more firepower.
Ajayi averaged roughly 17 points and 10 rebounds last season, while making 47% of his 3-point attempts. He didn’t shoot well in games against the Zags last season, but pulled in 14 rebounds in one game.
Solid to spectacular guard play has keyed many GU tournament runs, and both Nembhard and Hickman rose to the challenge late last season. Hickman had big games against Kansas and Purdue, and had career highs in scoring and shooting percentage over the season.
Nembhard and Ike needed a little time last season to acclimate to the Zags system, but toward the end of the year they had found so many variations on pick and roll, with such perfect timing, they at times seemed unstoppable.
Inserted in the starting lineup in the middle of last season, Gregg became a powerful rebounder and scorer with range, with some toughness at the rim tossed in. Against Kansas in the NCAAs, he made all six shots, including a pair of 3s, to score 15 points with nine boards and two blocks. If Ajayi can replace Watson’s rebounding, Gregg should supply any missing cohesiveness, grit and combative attitude.
The 6-9 Ike enters the season as one of the country’s top big men. It wouldn’t hurt if he could provide a bit more rim protection, but he’s so talented on offense it feels a bit picky to quibble.
What might be the most encouraging aspect of this edition of Zags is the quality of the full rotation, which might force Few to go further down the bench than usual.
Perhaps most interesting among the newcomers is Battle, a 6-5 guard, whose late-season scoring outburst at Arkansas registered massive statistics.
In the last seven games of the season, Battle averaged 29.6 points and 6.3 rebounds. This was against top-flight competition. He scored 34 against Kentucky, 29 against LSU, 22 against Alabama, and on Feb. 24, he nailed 6 of 10 3-pointers in a 42-point effort against Missouri.
More of a known commodity, but also a talent ready to go big, sophomore forward Braden Huff averaged roughly nine points in only 13.5 minutes a game for the Zags. With a soft touch on the low block and perimeter range, Huff scored 26 against San Diego and 25 on Portland last season.
Picture at some point during the first halves of games this season when the Zags send Battle and Huff off the bench together. Instant offense. Game-changers, tempo-changers, style-changers.
It’s also easy to sense a serious hunger from this bunch.
After the loss to Purdue in March, nobody in the locker room seemed interested in talking about anything but getting started to work toward the season that is now upon us.
“Nobody wearing a Zag uniform is going to go into any game feeling pessimistic or that we can’t win it,” Ike said.
And by “it,” it seemed as if he was talking about the whole thing.
After that loss, Gregg looked like he was ready to find a gym someplace that night to start practicing.
“We’re going to be very hungry going into this offseason,” Gregg said. “We got a taste for going this far and we want to go further than this.”
I’ve been wrong before, but I think, more than ever, this is the year.