What to watch for when Washington hosts USC
USC (4-4, 2-4) at Washington (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Husky Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
Latest Line (via ESPN Bet): USC -2.5, Total 55.5
All-time series: USC leads 51-31-4 (Not counting vacated 2005 USC win); Most recent matchup: Nov. 4; UW won 52-42
UW key players
QB Will Rogers: 72.3% completions, 2,022 pass yards, 172 completions, 238 attempts, 13 pass TD, four INT
WR Giles Jackson: 49 catches, 553 receiving yards, two receiving TDs, three carries, 16 rush yards, one rush TD
LB Carson Bruener: 55 tackles, two TFL, one INT, three PBU
CB Thaddeus Dixon: 24 tackles, 0.5 TFL, one INT, seven PBU
USC key players
QB Miller Moss: 65.1% completions, 2,262 yards, 203 completions, 312 attempts, 16 pass TD, six INT
RB Woody Marks: 133 carries, 755 rush yards, eight rush TD, 30 catches, 234 receiving yards
LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold: 67 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, two INT,
S Kamari Ramsey: 37 tackles, 4.5 TFL, two sacks, five PBU, two forced fumbles
A new-look defense
Washington fans certainly won’t forget the Huskies’ most recent matchup with the Trojans.
The moments are burned into purple-and-gold memory.
The game was filled with great plays by the Huskies – Michael Penix Jr.’s thrilling touchdown throw to Devin Culp, Zion Tupuola-Fetui’s strip sack against Caleb Williams to name a few – yet the enduring image is likely running back Dillon Johnson roaring into the camera after scoring one of his four touchdowns.
This season, however, the Trojans have been a much better defensive unit. USC is allowing 21.75 points per game, a significant improvement after it surrendered 34.38 points per game in 2023.
The strides taken by the Trojans’ defense can be attributed to new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who replaced the beleaguered Alex Grinch after joining from UCLA during the offseason.
USC isn’t an elite defensive unit, but it’s held three Big Ten opponents to 24 points or fewer this season, something the Trojans only did once – against Stanford – in 2023. USC gave up only 20 points against No. 16 LSU during the Trojans’ season-opening win, the lowest score the Tigers have managed all year.
The Trojans under Lynn also rank 15th nationally in third-down defense as opponents have converted just 30.5% of their attempts.
That’s a bad sign for the Huskies, who have converted only 37% of their third downs this season and rank No. 98 in the country. In Big Ten play, Washington is only converting 34.4% of their third downs, ranking 17th among the 18 teams in the conference.
No-fly zone
It’s no secret USC coach Lincoln Riley likes to throw the ball. The Trojans have attempted 325 passes this season, ranking ninth in the FBS. Quarterback Miller Moss is completing only 65.1% of his passes, but is 11th nationally with 2,262 passing yards. USC is averaging 291 passing yards per game, only behind Maryland and Oregon in the Big Ten.
Washington is giving up just 123.1 yards through eight games. No. 11 Iowa State, which ranks second in passing yards allowed per game, is conceding 133.7 yards per game.
Some of this can be explained by Washington’s game situations and opponents. Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa all rank No. 125 or lower in passing offense, while Rutgers and Indiana were trying to protect leads and drain the clock.
Cornerbacks Thaddeus Dixon and Ephesians Prysock, nickels Jordan Shaw and Dyson McCutcheon, and safeties Kamren Fabiculanan, Makell Esteen and Cameron Broussard – if he can return from the foot injury that held him out at Indiana – will have their hands full with USC’s receiving corps.
The Trojans have four receivers with at least 300 yards in junior Kyron Hudson and sophomores Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch. Moss has 16 passing touchdowns this season, tied for 21st in the country, but also has six interceptions, including four in his past four games.
Familiar foe
One season ago, Washington fans got to watch as Johnson, a Mississippi State transfer, ran past USC for 256 rushing yards.
On Saturday, another former Mississippi State running back up will take the field at Husky Stadium. Fifth-year running back Woody Marks has been a revelation for USC this season, rushing for 755 yards on 133 carries with eight touchdowns. No other Trojan has more than 40 rushing attempts. Marks also leads USC with 30 catches.
Marks, like Johnson, was also former teammates with UW quarterback Will Rogers at Mississippi State. While the USC running back hasn’t been quite as good as Washington’s Jonah Coleman, he poses a difficult challenge for a UW run defense which has struggled against the strong stable of running backs it’s seen weekly in the Big Ten.
UW ranks No. 71 in rushing defense, allowing 148.9 yards per game. The Huskies are giving up 165 yards per game in Big Ten play. USC offers a chance for UW’s run defense to find a spark before facing No. 3 Penn State next week.
Andy Yamashita’s prediction
UW almost certainly needs a win this weekend if it wants to make a bowl game. Washington still has Penn State and No. 1 Oregon on its schedule, and needs two wins to reach the postseason. USC is in a similar position, needing to beat two of UW, Nebraska, UCLA and No. 8 Notre Dame to reach a bowl game.
USC has struggled to hit big plays all year. Add in a cold – possibly rainy – forecast for Saturday afternoon, and Washington certainly has a chance to win.
Washington’s pass defense is likely facing its most difficult test of the season. Moss is the best passing quarterback UW has seen, and USC has better players on the perimeter than any other team the Huskies have played.
Considering UW has scored more than 24 points just once in its past six games and USC has done it in every game except two, it’s hard to give UW an edge.
Prediction: Trojans 27, Huskies 21