The best picks to win this year’s Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes field received a jolt Wednesday with the news that Muth, the Bob Baffert-trained horse who was the morning line favorite after winning this year’s Arkansas Derby, was scratched from the race due to a fever.

That leaves Mystik Dan, who won this year’s Kentucky Derby in thrilling fashion, as the morning-line favorite for the race. But there are reasons to be cautious about his chances to win at Pimlico Race Course. He got a perfect trip in his run for the roses, saving enough ground to hold off Sierra Leone and Japanese import Forever Young in a photo finish, and he is unlikely to be as fortunate in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Plus, he earned a low final Brisnet speed figure in his latest victory (97) compared to the average figure earned in these Grade I events (103). In fact, his only final speed figure in the triple digits was earned over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.

So, if not Mystik Dan, which horse should you back in this race? Imagination, Catching Freedom or Uncle Heavy.

Imagination is a front-running horse who lost by a nose as the post-time favorite in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. Baffert’s other colt did so by producing a personal-best Brisnet pace figure and final speed figure. Normally, you would discount a horse that displays a “double top,” but a quality 3-year-old horse shouldn’t be expected to bounce (regress off a top effort) as consistently as his older brethren.

Catching Freedom had a solid effort in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth by 1¾ lengths, and has a win at this distance in the Grade II Louisiana Derby, a race in which he earned a final Brisnet speed figure of 100. With Muth scratching the lone front-runner in the race is Imagination but Seize the Grey trainer D Wayne Lucas told horse racing announcer Jason Beem there wasn’t going to be anyone getting a free ride on the lead.

“We’re going out after them,” Lucas said.

That type of speed duel could play right into Catching Freedom’s closing style. Plus, jockey Flavien Prat has won 37% of mounts trained by Brad Cox over the past 60 days, returning a flat-bet profit of 15 cents per $2 wagered to win.

Uncle Heavy ran into a lot of trouble in the Grade II Wood Memorial – the track notes indicated he broke a half-step slow then went three wide on the first turn, four then five wide on the far turn, until he was finally pushed seven wide into the upper stretch – yet he still earned a career-best Brisnet pace figure for his efforts, a peaking pattern. He also has the stalking running style that’s proven effective in this race. Only two horses in the past 15 years have rallied from the back half of the Preakness field to reach the wire first: Exaggerator in 2016 over a sloppy track, and Rombauer in 2021.

One other horse worth discussing is Mugatu, a colt purchased for $14,000 and named after “Zoolander” villain Jacobim Mugatu. He finally broke his maiden in his fifth career start in a mile-and-70-yard route on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park, then went winless in six starts before finishing fifth in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes.

In other words, Mugatu has never beaten a horse that won a race before, yet here he is with a gate in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Noted horse handicapper Marc Cramer wrote about looking for the different horse in a race, “a horse that seems totally outclassed and is inexplicably entered in this field.” Mugatu certainly qualifies. Cramer also said to look for a pattern match when handicapping a race, “a horse with apparently poor form returning to the same scenario as its last victory.” The only time Mugatu won a race was with jockey Joe Bravo aboard, and Bravo will be in the saddle for the Preakness Stakes. Cramer says if the pattern-match horse is also the different horse then you should consider him “a prime contender.”

I am not sure I would go this far – I thought the horse should be triple-digit odds on the money line – but I would hate myself if Mugatu won and I didn’t at least highlight the one angle that points to him as the victor.