Hurricane season starts in two weeks: Why you should pay attention and prepare
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean begins June 1, and forecasters are warning people to brace for what could be an anxious six months - for residents along the coast and even well inland. While an average season bears witness to 14 named storms, this season could feature twice that number. Experts are sounding the alarms for an active season, in some cases issuing the most extreme preseason outlooks they ever have.
The past seven seasons have all featured average or above-average activity, and there’s no reason to expect less this year. Sept. 15 marks the historic peak of hurricane season, a halfway point before ocean waters cool and the atmosphere simmers down heading into winter.
Ocean waters this year are record hot across virtually the entire Atlantic, an obvious red flag that is likely to supercharge storms and make it easier for them to form and gain strength. Equally concerning is a burgeoning La Niña event, a global climate pattern that makes the Atlantic far more hospitable to, and conducive to the development of, higher-end hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center issued its first regular tropical weather update Wednesday. All is quiet for now, but this will inevitably change.
When does hurricane season begin to awaken?
By the books, hurricane season kicks off June 1. In recent years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has considered moving the “official” start date to May 15 to reflect a tendency toward more “preseason” storms. Most recent years have feature at least one named storm before June 1, which is partially the result of warming ocean waters.
But realistically, the most serious and threatening storms don’t begin to form until August. The average date of a season’s first hurricane is Aug. 11. The average first major hurricane, meaning Category 3 strength or greater, comes around Sept. 1.
Why this season looks to be so busy
There are several factors feeding into why this hurricane season looks to be so active.
Record-warm oceans. Globally and in the North Atlantic, ocean waters are red hot. There aren’t really any places with water temperatures that aren’t far above where they should be, or at record levels. Warm water is high-octane fuel for hurricanes.
La Niña: While the El Niño climate pattern is still lingering, the pendulum is swinging in the direction of La Niña. The National Weather Service writes that “a transition from El Niño to [neutral status] is likely in the next month,” and there’s a 69 percent chance of a crossover to La Niña between July and September. La Niña patterns favor greater hurricane activity in the Atlantic for a couple of reasons:
— La Niña is characterized by a cooling of water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. That cools the air above, causing it to sink - which makes it easier for air over the Atlantic to rise. Rising motion is supportive of intensified storminess.
— La Niña also reduces wind shear, or changing winds with height, in the Atlantic. Wind shear often tears apart developing storms before they can mature, so a reduction in wind shear can help storms form and intensify.
What forecasters think
Putting it all together, there’s not much that will limit this hurricane season. Meteorologists and forecast agencies have already begun taking first stabs at what to expect this season, and the numbers aren’t pretty.
Colorado State University forecasters, lead by researcher Philip Klotzbach, are calling for an “extremely active” hurricane season. They estimate a season 70 percent more active than normal, with 23 named storms - enough to exhaust a list of 21 available names maintained by the World Meteorological Organization. It’s the most bullish preseason forecast the group has issued in four decades of work.
One statistic in particular stands out - Klotzbach and his team project a 62 percent chance that the United States gets hit by a major hurricane.
Michael Mann, a professor in the department of earth and environmental science at the University of Pennsylvania, is predicting the busiest hurricane season ever observed. He’s expecting 33 named storms, which would smash the record of 30 named storms set in 2020. That’s 2½ times what’s normal.
AccuWeather is predicting a “hyperactive” hurricane season, with 20 to 25 named storms, including four to six tropical storms or hurricanes that directly affect the United States.
Gearing up for inevitable impacts in the United States, the Hurricane Center is taking a new approach when it comes to its iconic hurricane cone: An experimental graphic released to the public online will feature weather alerts superimposed over the predicted track of the storm. The goal? Shift the focus away from a long-standing emphasis on landfall location and instead emphasize how wide-reaching and multifaceted the effects can be beyond the immediate coastline.
What names are on this year’s list?
The World Meteorological Organization has a rotating list of storm names that reappear every six years. This year’s names are:
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.
If those names are exhausted, a new, supplemental list of names will be tapped into.