Analysis: What will the Mariners’ opening day roster look like next week?

PEORIA, Ariz. – With opening day just about a week away, the Seattle Mariners are finalizing their roster to open the 2024 season.

Of the 26 spots on the active roster, it appears about 24 have been decided. Realistically, the Mariners came into spring training with the belief that there might be competition for one or two spots, but the reasons for the competition have changed.

The bullpen spots held by Matt Brash (elbow strain) and Gregory Santos (lat strain) are open, with both late-inning leverage relievers expected to start the season on the injured list.

Given the health of the position player group, avoidance of injury thus far and a recent stretch of torrid hitting, the Mariners would love to skip the remaining five spring training games and start the season now.

As of Tuesday, the Mariners had 41 players in camp, with 34 on the 40-man roster and seven nonroster invitees.

Here’s a look at the 26 players projected for opening day:

Starting rotation: Luis Castillo-RHP, George Kirby-RHP, Logan Gilbert-RHP, Bryce Miller-RHP, Bryan Woo-RHP

Notes: Manager Scott Servais waited until a few days ago to announce what was already known: Castillo would be the opening -day starter for the second straight season.

The rest of the slotting above that has prevailed this spring will remain the same in the regular season.

The Red Sox haven’t officially announced the slotting of their rotation but, based on sources, pitching matchups for the opening series at T-Mobile would be:

• Thursday: Castillo vs. Brayan Bello, RHP

• Friday: Kirby vs. Nick Pivetta, RHP

• Saturday: Gilbert vs. Kutter Crawford, RHP

• Next Sunday: Miller vs. Tanner Houck, RHP

Woo would start the first game of the Guardians series. The rotation will get an extra day of rest with an off day going into the first road trip of the season.

Bullpen: Andres Munoz-RHP, Ryne Stanek-RHP, Collin Snider-RHP, Cody Bolton-RHP, Trent Thornton-RHP, Austin Voth-RHP, Tayler Saucedo-LHP, Gabe Speier-LHP

Notes: This group has experienced the most turnover in opening -day projections, particularly when the injuries to Brash and Santos arose. Neither of the two relievers will be ready for opening day. Brash is further along in his recovery. He’s been playing catch to 100 feet but has yet to throw off a mound. That could happen in the next week. Expecting him back in the big leagues before May 1 seems overly optimistic. The Mariners want to be cautious in his buildup.

Santos has yet to resume his throwing program, but he was moving closer in his rehab to have another MRI of the strained lat to see if the inflammation was down enough for him to pick up a baseball.

Right-hander Jackson Kowar, who was acquired in the trade that sent Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales to Atlanta, was trending toward securing a spot until elbow soreness shut him down.

He underwent Tommy John surgery on March 15 and is out for the season.

Trying to offset injuries to late-inning leverage relievers, Seattle signed veteran right-hander Stanek to a one-year, $4 million contract. The hard-throwing Stanek has plenty of experience in a setup role, having pitched the last three seasons in late-inning situations with the Astros.

Stanek made his first appearance this spring and should be ready to go for opening day.

The other two spots will be filled by Snider and Bolton. While they don’t have the overpowering stuff compared with right-hander Carlos Vargas, they throw strikes. Vargas is simply too erratic with his command, particularly his fastball.

While Tyson Miller has the ability to pitch multiple innings and might be the Mariners’ pitching lab’s next reclamation project to success, Snider and Bolton are both on the 40-man roster. Miller is also still working through the changes implemented by the Mariners and some time in Tacoma could be beneficial.

“You have to be smart when you put a roster together early in the season, knowing that you’re gonna go through a number of different guys in the bullpen,” Servais said. “You keep as many options as you can. So guys that have options available, a 40-man guy, you have to take all that into account. You’ve seen us do this, but it may not be the guy that just had the best spring that makes the team. There’s a lot of things that play into the opening day roster.”

A year ago, Saucedo, Justin Topa and Speier were on the opening-day roster … in Tacoma.

“There’s a lot of things that play into the opening-day roster, but I think our options are good,” Servais said. “The injuries that we have had created opportunity and a couple of guys have really stepped up and are trying to seize the opportunity. We’ll see, but there’s a lot of different things that play into it. It’s not just a stat sheet, or how a guy’s throwing. We need to keep as many guys as we can in the organization because we know they’re all gonna pitch for us.”

Outfielders: Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone

Notes: This group has remained unchanged since before spring training started. But the projected playing time in left field might be different from initially expected.

Canzone has had an outstanding spring training, benefiting from an offseason lifting program and some swing changes. In 13 games, he’s posted a .281/.333/.656 slash line. Of his nine hits, three are doubles and three are homers.

He may have stolen some playing time from Raley, who was projected to play over him coming into spring.

Raley has scuffled this spring. He has three hits in 28 at-bats with four walks and 10 strikeouts.

Infielders: Ty France-1B, Jorge Polanco-2B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Josh Rojas-3B, Luis Urias-3B, Dylan Moore-Utility

Notes: Urias’ right shoulder has been healthy enough for him to play third base on a more regular basis in recent games. Several of his in-game throws have lacked pace and accuracy. But the Mariners believe it’s slowly improving. His throwing arm, even when at full strength, is still considered below average.

Veteran infielder Brian Anderson, who signed a minor league deal a few weeks into spring training, has played well. He’s got one of the best throwing arms in baseball. But he’s guaranteed a $2 million salary if he makes the MLB roster at any point in the season. The Mariners won’t want to take on that money if they don’t have to. So Seattle will stick with the platoon of Urias and Rojas at third.

Catchers: Cal Raleigh Seby Zavala

Notes: The Mariners will split up the playing time unequally. Raleigh is the primary catcher and Zavala will be the backup. It means Raleigh will play most days, with Zavala starting perhaps once or twice per week.

Switch-hitting catcher Michael Papierski, who signed as a minor league free agent, has impressed the Mariners. He has moved ahead of Blake Hunt as the first catcher called up due to injury.

Designated hitter: Mitch Garver

Notes: Garver came up as a catcher and can still get behind the plate if needed. But the Mariners don’t want to use him at catcher unless it’s absolutely necessary. Why?

“Every time I catch I get hurt,” Garver told the Times.