NCAA Tournament: Analysis and predictions for upcoming games at the Spokane Arena
(5) San Diego State vs. (12) UAB
Gametime: The Blazers (23-11) and Aztecs (24-10) tip off at 10:45 a.m.
Key matchup: In a battle of 6-foot-9 power forwards, UAB Yaxel Lendeborg (13.9 ppg, 10.7 rpg) will face SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee (21.1 ppg 8 rpg.) Both were defensive POYs in their respective conferences.
What to look for: The Aztecs are tournament tested, with several players back from last year’s national runner-up squad. They’re also 20th in NET, compared to UAB’s 104 ranking, and are outrebounding opponents by more than five per game. As they did last year, the Aztecs will rely on their defense, which ranks 36th nationally in points given up at 66.6. The Blazers counter with a defensive scheme that changes on almost every possession, which could fluster the SDSU guards. UAB also comes in riding a five-game winning streak that includes an 85-69 rout of Temple in the American Athletic Conference title game. SDSU, the Mountain West regular-season champ, fell to New Mexico in the Mountain West finale.
Prediction: San Diego State 71-64.
(4) Auburn vs. (13) Yale
Game time: The Tigers (27-7) and Bulldogs (22-9) tip off at 1:15 p.m.
Key matchup: Yale will need a big game from sophomore forward Danny Wolf, a 7-footer who averages 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds. Auburn counters with 6-10 junior forward Johni Broome (16.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg).
What to look for: This might not be the best upset pick in your March Madness bracket. Auburn comes in ranked fifth in NET and fourth in KenPom and cruised to the Southeastern Conference Tournament title last weekend with a 19-point win over Florida. But don’t count out 13 seed Yale, which won the Ivy League Tournament on a last-second shot. Auburn had better count on shutting down Yale guard Austin Mahoney, who is hitting 59% from long range in his past nine games. Expect a low-scoring game. Yale concedes just 66.6 points a game and likes to slow the pace; the Bulldogs are also smart with the ball, turning it over just 217 times to rank third in Division 1. Auburn ranks second nationally in field-goal percentage defense (38.4%).
Prediction: Auburn 66-51.
(13) Charleston vs. (4) Alabama
Gametime: The Crimson Tide (21-11), who received an at-large bid after bowing out early in the SEC Tournament, meet the CAA champion Cougars (27-7) at 4:35 p.m.
Key matchup: All-SEC Alabama guard Mark Sears (21.1 ppg, 50.4% shooting) can score from every level. All-CAA Charleston guard Reyne Smith (12.8 ppg) is one of the nation’s best 3-point shooters.
What to look for: The Crimson Tide boast one of the nation’s top scorers and lead the country in scoring offense (90.8 ppg), but they rank 346th in scoring defense (81.1 ppg). The Cougars, who lean on 3-pointers, hang their hats on offense (80.5 ppg), but they’ve also had some trouble on defense, allowing 72.5 points per game. This game could develop into a shootout between two entertaining offensive units. Can the underdog Cougars keep pace with the most productive lineup from arguably the deepest conference in the NCAA?
Prediction: Alabama 94-88
(12) Grand Canyon vs. (5) Saint Mary’s
Gametime: The Antelopes (29-4), who claimed the WAC title, tip off against the WCC champion Gaels (26-7) at 7:05 p.m.
Key matchup: Saint Mary’s is led by two star guards in Aidan Mahaney (13.9 ppg) and Augustas Marciulionis (12.4 ppg, 5.2 apg), the WCC Player of the Year. Grand Canyon is also paced by strong guard play. Tyon Grant-Foster captured the WAC Player of the Year award after averaging 19.8 points per game.
What to look for: Grand Canyon is a popular pick for a 12-over-5 upset. An outstanding Saint Mary’s defense stands in the way. The Gaels, who boast the WCC’s Defensive Player of the Year in center Mitchell Saxen, allow just 58.7 points per game – second nationally. The Gaels are one of the hottest teams in the field, owning a 19-1 record since the start of 2024. The Lopes are one of the more well-rounded teams from the midmajor ranks. Their offense is productive and efficient (79.8 ppg on 46.5% shooting), and they enjoy a top-40 defense by most metrics. Expect a tight game.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 73-70