Commentary: Why Mariners fans can both think big and be nervous about playoff outlook

You can’t be a homer in this space and do your job correctly, but you can certainly root for the city.

You can wish the die-hards the best and hope a long-suffering fan base feels a sense of euphoria commensurate with the wait time.

So that’s why no predictions will be made here today — no claims that could turn into curses. This, right here, is a jinx-free zone.

Still … 74 games into the season, the Mariners’ hold on the American League West is as firm-fisted as we’ve seen since Jerry Dipoto came on as general manager and Scott Servais as manager before the 2016 season. Part of that is due to every other team in the division having sub-.500 records — astonishing considering one (Texas) is the defending World Series champion, and another (Houston) has won at least 90 games in each of the past six full seasons.

But a bigger part has been the combination of starting-pitching dominance and one-run-game composure — which have helped propel Seattle (43-31) to an 8 1/2-game lead in the AL West. The division can be taken for the first time since 2001. Maybe courageous fans should be thinking bigger than that, though. Or maybe they should store their optimism in a Brinks truck for now. There are reasons for both.

The case for the Mariners making a deep, possibly unprecedented, playoff run?

Those starting arms, for one. There’s never been anything close to a rotation this good and this deep. No, ace Luis Castillo doesn’t compare with a prime Randy Johnson or Felix Hernandez — each of whom dominated the American League for years on end while in Seattle. But there aren’t any real weaknesses when everybody is healthy, and aside from No. 5-man Bryan Woo, everybody is usually healthy.

This is what ESPN MLB writer David Schoenfield underscored while talking on Seattle Sports radio Monday. It’s part of the reason the rotation has been able to produce an MLB-leading 46 quality starts (six innings or more with three earned runs allowed or fewer) — seven more than any other team.

Not mentioned in that interview was the starters’ combined 1.01 WHIP, which is also tops in the league. Their ERA of 3.42 is fifth. This is critical not just in terms of helping the Mariners make it into the postseason, but in potentially advancing to their first World Series.

At that stage, teams typically lean on their best three starters. Who those three will be come October if the Mariners are still around isn’t quite known, but if you have Luis Castillo (3.32 ERA), Logan Gilbert (2.93) and George Kirby (3.54) as the go-to trio, then have fellow starters Bryce Miller (3.48) and Woo (1.07) in the bullpen — not to mention standout closer Andrés Muñoz — that’s a serious threat every night.

Moreover, the bats are starting to find some life. The Mariners have averaged 4.8 runs per game over 15 games this month. Didn’t hurt that they got to take on the A’s, Angels and White Sox over that stretch, but that average would be in the top 10 in MLB if they did it throughout the season, and is about a full run better than their average entering June.

But, there also is a case that Seattle doesn’t have the firepower to take out the league’s top teams once the playoffs come around. I wrote this weekend that the Mariners’ MLB-best 109 one-run wins in the Servais era is more than just luck. To win nearly 60% of such games over 8 1/2 years is a testament to both bullpen strength and composure. That said, the Mariners are 12 games above .500 this season with a plus-19 run differential — which is 10th in MLB. This is primarily due to a lackluster offense that is third-to-last in MLB in batting average and fifth-to-last in OPS.

Assuming there is no unraveling — a big assumption given this club’s history — the big intrigue this summer will center on what the Mariners do at the trade deadline. Save for dealing for Castillo in 2021, they aren’t known for making the proverbial big splash heading into the final two months of the year. But the way they’re going now, there might not be an excuse not to.

To be fair, we’re not even at the halfway point of the season yet. A lot has gone wrong in the past, a lot can still go wrong in the near future.

This team, however, is putting fans in the seats in a way we don’t usually see this time of year. They’re putting plenty hope in their hearts as well.