Commentary: John Stanton says the Mariners will invest to win the AL West. We’ll see.
SEATTLE – It’s one thing to say it.
It’s another to do it.
In two months, we’ll know more.
But in a story published earlier this week, managing partner John Stanton said plenty – setting an expectation for the Mariners to win the AL West.
To do that for the first time since 2001, Seattle will have to hit.
And, yes: Seattle will have to spend.
The Mariners entered Wednesday’s matchup against Oakland at 35-27, touting a 4½-game lead over the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers (and a seven-game lead over the perpetually hated Houston Astros) in a surprisingly winnable AL West. That lead was earned with an armada of electric arms – as Seattle leads MLB in quality starts (37), quality-start percentage (61%), WHIP (1.07), walks per nine innings (2.4) and opponent on-base percentage (.275).
To put that in perspective: Mariners starters (Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo) did not allow a run in last weekend’s three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels, the first time that’s happened in franchise history.
Together, Castillo (31 years old), Miller (25), Woo (24), Logan Gilbert (27) and George Kirby (26) form baseball’s most mercilessly balanced rotation. They’ve pried open a legitimate championship window, which – given the league’s litany of pitching injuries – could close just as quickly.
So when it comes to supporting your greatest strength: if not now, when?
Speaking of: As of Tuesday, the Mariners rank tied for 27th in MLB in starting pitcher run support per game (3.9). The other teams with 3.9 or fewer – the White Sox, Marlins, A’s, Rays and Cardinals – own a combined record of 117-182.
It’s obvious, but teams that can’t support their starters rarely win.
And Seattle’s offense has been, well, offensive – leading the league in strikeouts (612) and strikeout percentage (27.7%) while ranking 25th in slugging percentage (.365), 27th in on-base percentage (.298), 28th in runs per game (3.77), 29th in batting average (.222) and last in doubles (72).
Plus, outside of outfielder Luke Raley, their offseason additions have simultaneously scuffled:
• 2B Jorge Polanco (on the injured list): .195/.293/.302, 5 HR, 14 RBIs, 0.0 WAR
• Raley: .265/.315/.441, 6 HR, 15 RBIs, 1.1 WAR
• OF Mitch Haniger: .221/.282/.349, 6 HR, 24 RBIs, -0.7 WAR
• DH Mitch Garver: .170/.276/.309, 5 HR, 17 RBIs, -0.6 WAR
• 3B Luis Urias (currently in Triple-A): .152/.264/.316, 3 HR, 12 RBIs, -0.2 WAR
• C Seby Zavala: .158/.200/.289, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, -0.4 WAR
The Mariners made one move Friday, firing first-year offensive coordinator and bench coach Brant Brown. But with a payroll that sits 17th in MLB at roughly $140 million (more than $100 million less than Houston), are they willing to make more significant moves to improve their personnel?
“I look at the talent that we’ve got on the offensive side, and I think we’ve got the ability to hit,” said Stanton, who also acknowledged “substantial” financial losses surrounding the future of Root Sports, which is owned by the Mariners. “That said, we will look at the (July 30 MLB trade) deadline. I’ll spend time with (president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto) and (general manager Justin Hollander) as we approach the deadline, and we’ll talk about where we are. …
“Jerry and Justin are 10 times smarter about what it takes to have a successful baseball team. My job is to make sure they have the resources available to get there. And I get up every day to try and do that.”
Again: saying and doing are different.
Take the Mariners’ recent moves at the trade deadline.
In 2023, with Seattle sputtering at 55-51 – 3½ games back in the AL wild card – the Mariners moved closer Paul Sewald to Arizona for Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss, three depth pieces that offer legitimate potential but did little to improve the team in the short term. The Mariners finished one game back in the wild card and two games out in the division.
In 2021, Seattle sat at 56-49 – 2½ games back in the wild card – when Dipoto punctured the Mariners’ morale by dealing reliever Kendall Graveman (he of the 0.82 ERA) to the rival Astros. The Mariners did bring in relievers Diego Castillo and Joe Smith, starter Tyler Anderson and infielder Abraham Toro … but finished two games out of the final wild-card spot.
In 2018, Seattle owned a 63-44 record and a tenuous one-game lead over Oakland for the final wild-card spot. Its trade deadline additions included aging options such as outfielders Cameron Maybin and Denard Span and relievers Zach Duke and Adam Warren. The Mariners collapsed down the stretch and finished eight games back of Oakland for the final wild card.
We can go on.
But in each case, a team with an obvious opportunity to reach postseason play failed to improve at the trade deadline.
Of course, there is an outlier.
In 2022, Seattle took an uncharacteristically ambitious swing, sending four prospects to Cincinnati to gain an ace in Castillo. The Mariners – who at 55-48 held a 1½-game lead in the wild card at the end of July – went 35-24 the rest of the way, emphatically ending a 21-year playoff drought before defeating Toronto in the wild-card round. Castillo went 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and has remained a stalwart since.
Granted, an aggressive trade deadline doesn’t guarantee a deep run, and gaining pop would likely cost Seattle prized prospects. But given the strength of Seattle’s rotation and the opportunity in a somewhat diminished division, now is the time for bold strokes.
Or, more accurately, that time will arrive in late July. Even if center fielder Julio Rodriguez finally finds his home run swing. Even if Polanco, Haniger, Garver, etc., provide more than occasional production. Even if the Mariners’ offense shows incremental progress in the weeks to come.
That offense may not be as bad as it’s looked the past two months.
But to excel into October, more improvements must be made.
“We’ve got the resources to be able to do the things we need to do to put a good team on the field,” Stanton said earlier this week.
Soon enough, we’ll see.