Analysis: Why Mariners might not be done making moves after Randy Arozarena deal
CHICAGO — In acquiring Randy Arozarena late Thursday, the Seattle Mariners added much-needed middle-of-the-order thump to their lineup and did so, notably, without giving up any of their top prospects.
And because of that, the Mariners might not done be making moves before Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline.
The Mariners’ nosedive in the AL West standings over the past few weeks did not temper the front office’s motivation to bolster the roster, and team execs Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander turned to their most frequent trade partner — the Tampa Bay Rays — to make the first major move of the trade season.
Arozarena, a 29-year-old outfielder, gives the Mariners a credible bat — and a proven postseason stud — they hope can inject some life into a slumping lineup, and provides needed coverage with Julio Rodriguez (ankle sprain) and J.P. Crawford (broken hand) both on the injured list.
Arozarena is expected to report to the Mariners on Saturday in Chicago.
In exchange, the Mariners sent to Tampa Bay two prospects and a player to be named later. Those two known minor-leaguers, outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins, both drafted in 2023, are ranked as the 14th- and 15th-best prospects in the Mariners’ farm system.
The PTBNL is another minor-league prospect who isn’t ranked as highly as Smith or Hopkins, according to an MLB source. The Rays are intrigued by young pitchers Walter Ford and Teddy McGraw.
That still leaves the Mariners with a bounty of highly regarded prospects to swing for another blockbuster deal over the next few days.
To be clear: If the Mariners are able to execute another trade, it would likely be for a peripheral piece — a relief pitcher, a backup catcher or a veteran outfielder, perhaps.
But the Mariners might be better positioned than any other team to pull off a deal for the game’s most coveted slugger — Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Mariners, who designated for assignment veteran first baseman Ty France earlier this week, have reportedly been “aggressive” in recent discussions with the Blue Jays.
For a Guerrero deal to happen, the Blue Jays’ front office would have to have a change of heart.
The Blue Jays’ stance so far, per multiple reports, is that they does not intend to trade either of their two young stars, Guerrero or shortstop Bo Bichette, both of whom are scheduled to be free agents after the 2025 season.
That was the same messaging coming from Washington Nationals’ decision-makers two years surrounding superstar Juan Soto — before the San Diego Padres offered up five of their top prospect to pry Soto away just before the 2022 deadline.
The Mariners were known at the time to have interest Soto, but they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) come close to matching the Padres’ haul. (The Mariners balked when the Nationals asked for George Kirby.)
Instead, the Mariners turned their attention to Luis Castillo, the top pitcher available on the 2022 market, and outbid the Yankees to land the Cincinnati ace.
What might a hypothetical Guerrero deal look like?
It shouldn’t cost quite as much as the Soto deal because Soto was, at the time, under club control for two and a half seasons. Guerrero, right now, has a year and half before he’s scheduled to reach free agency.
But the prospect price would still be steep — very steep.
At one point this summer, the Mariners had eight prospects ranked among Baseball America’s top 100, most of any MLB team. In theory, they could match just about any offer to the Blue Jays, and probably even make the most compelling one.
Given the strength of the club’s starting pitching staff, the Mariners’ window to contend is wide open. They haven’t won a division title in 23 years, and even with their recent spiral the Mariners entered Friday’s series against the White Sox only one game back of Houston for the AL West lead.
The Mariners know their time to strike is now. And they appear poised to take another swing.
Seattle Times reporter Ryan Divish contributed to this report.