Ukraine’s F-16 ambitions snarled by language barrier, runways and parts
This summer, Kyiv will finally get the F-16 fighter jets it’s been insisting it needs to repel Russia – but in far fewer numbers than it had hoped.
The move to send warplanes – a much hyped element of this week’s NATO summit in Washington, D.C. – has been bedeviled by delays, questions around spare parts, and a language barrier between Ukrainian pilots and their foreign trainers, according to people familiar with the matter. Planners also worry that the country doesn’t have enough runways – and those it does have are vulnerable to Russian attacks.
The result is that Ukraine may be able to field a squadron of F-16s, anything from 15 to 24 jets, well short of the 300 its leaders have called for, according to one of the people. Another said Kyiv expects to get six F-16s this summer and up to 20 by the end of the year.
The challenges have been so severe that they’ve raised doubts about the wisdom of sending the jets to Ukraine and whether doing so now amounts to a very costly show of support to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In the months since pilots began training, including 12 in the U.S., the battlefield has changed, with both sides relying on cheap drones and Russia bolstering its air defenses.
“People shouldn’t expect miracles” from the F-16s against Russia, said Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. And in terms of vulnerabilities, “those airfields are going to be nice, juicy targets, and the Russians have already been hitting some of them, just as a welcome to the real world for these F-16s.”
A senior NATO official listed three main issues weighing on planners’ minds. First, the planes must be reconfigured depending on their task, such as reconnaissance or combat. Second, Ukraine doesn’t have many long, high-quality runways required for the F-16s, or shelters to protect them from Russian attack.
Third, the logistics of supporting the planes are complex, from the need for spare parts to maintenance demands to finding engineers. Another NATO official noted that Ukraine is trying to achieve in a matter of months what usually takes three to four years.
A spokesman for Lockheed Martin Corp., maker of the F-16, said in an emailed response to questions that “we continue to support the US government’s response to the conflict in Ukraine,” without commenting on how service or parts for the jets will be managed.
Jake Sullivan, Presidnet Joe Biden’s top national security adviser, said Thursday the transfer of jets is underway and that they’ll be operational in Ukraine by summer. Denmark and the Netherlands are supplying the planes, with Belgium and Norway also pledging jets. Sullivan added the F-16s are expected to defend front-line forces in the short term and help retake territory “down the road.” He declined to provide further details.
Allies are also looking beyond January toward the possibility of a second Trump administration, seeking to ensure the jets can keep flying if the US withdraws support.
That was one reason why NATO will take on a broader role coordinating donated equipment and training. A staff of about 700 people will be in charge across different locations, including at three existing structures in Poland, Slovakia and Romania, where F-16 training is conducted.
It took more than a year to get here. Biden dropped his opposition to sending F-16s to Ukraine in May 2023, after repeated pleas by Zelenskyy and allies to allow their transfer. Training of Ukrainian pilots began soon after but analysts have argued that the administration has been dragging its feet on introducing the aircraft – partly out of fear that it will provoke President Vladimir Putin.
Biden and other allies have been hesitant to allow Kyiv permission to use western-provided weapons to strike inside Russia amid concerns of escalating the conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary.
“The enthusiasm of our leaders for rapidly developing a demonstrative air capability for Ukraine is lacking,” said Philip Breedlove, NATO’s chief commander at the time of Russia’s 2014 takeover of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. “We do not want to have to face what might occur if Ukraine was to develop a very successful capability quickly.”
But developments have changed the thinking of western leaders, not least the stepped-up air barrages from Russia and the clear signs that it’s dominating Ukraine’s airspace.
“The Russian counteroffensive recently has made up the minds of some of the allies in terms of having to respond to Ukrainian requests,” said Simona Soare, senior lecturer at Lancaster University. “There’s always that question of whether money and resources could have been sent a different way.”
Breedlove also described a training that would need to undo years of habit for Ukrainian pilots, who are accustomed to Soviet-era MiGs with far simpler technology. They were also trained to rely on ground controllers who direct their movements, unlike than western pilots who fly more independently.
A Ukrainian official familiar with the situation downplayed the language barrier, but conceded there have been delays around training, personnel and maintenance, as well as shelter from Russian attack.
“It’s more a burden than a blessing, with minimal impact before many, many months and great chances of losing many planes and pilots,” said Serge Stroobants, founder of Brussels-based BANTS Consulting. “An F-16 is more than a plane and a pilot, it’s a team of nearly 200 people who all play a role in getting the plane off the ground.”
—With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Josh Wingrove, Donato Paolo Mancini, Natalia Drozdiak, Daryna Krasnolutska, Arne Delfs, Laura Dhillon Kane and Milda Seputyte.