After rough financial year, Northwest cherry growers optimistic about 2024

In business and agriculture, good timing – or the lack of it – can enhance or derail the best innovations, products and crops.

Cherry growers in Washington state and the Northwest had a solid crop last year, harvesting 18.7 million 20-pound boxes of cherries. Unfortunately for them, California growers had a much later and larger than normal crop that prevented locally-grown cherries from reaching grocery store shelves until after July 4 in many cases, Northwest Cherry Growers President B.J. Thurlby said.

“I’m going into my 29th season (with Northwest Cherry Growers),” Thurlby said as he reviewed 2023 at Friday’s 81st annual Cherry Institute at the Yakima Convention and Event Center. “In my 28 years, I’ve never seen a season like last year. It was a tough season.”

While the California crop and its impact on Northwest cherry growers was a rare event, future collaboration and estimating of the Golden State’s fruit production is important to prevent similar market issues in the future, said Robert Kershaw, CEO of Yakima-based Domex Superfresh Growers.

“The cherry (season) is not about the size of the crop, it’s about how many we need to move each day,” Kershaw added. “That’s how we establish the markets.”

Crop bounces back from 2022

Regardless of its timing, the amount of cherries grown in Central Washington and other parts of the Northwest rebounded in 2023 from the tough weather conditions and short crop of the previous year.

Thurlby said the 18,742,834 boxes packed by Northwest cherry growers – roughly 40% more than the 13.3 million box crop in 2022 – could have been significantly higher without the downward price pressures of the California cherries.

“I think there were probably 4 and a half to 5 million boxes that didn’t get picked,” he said.

Northwest growers didn’t begin picking their 2023 crop until mid-June, a couple weeks later than usual, Thurlby said. And unfortunately for them, California produce also was late, meaning grocery stores across the country still had California cherries on their shelves for the lucrative Fourth of July holiday weekend.

“California was shipping fruit through July,” Thurlby added. “The price was pretty much zero before we picked a cherry. That makes it pretty hard for our growers to have a successful season.”

Between June 20 and July 20, the peak month of the local cherry harvest, Northwest growers shipped 13 million boxes of cherries, California growers 4 million boxes, and Canadian growers 1 million, with Thurlby estimating 3 million boxes of Northwest cherries went unpicked.

“That’s 21 million boxes (with the unpicked cherries) … 16 and a half million boxes, in 2017, was the most we’ve ever shipped in a 30-day window,” he added regarding the glut of cherry supply in 2023.

Mike Taylor, vice president of sales and marketing for Stemilt Growers of Wenatchee, said California growers missed their target of a peak harvest around the Memorial Day weekend.

“The 100 feet of snow in the Sierra (Mountains) last winter is the No. 1 reason for their late season,” Taylor added. “California growers are targeting the May marketing window – they missed Memorial Day, which is like us missing the Fourth of July.”

Because the California crop was three weeks late, cherries from that state held 55% of nationwide grocery store space for the Fourth of July, Thurlby said.

International demand growing

One positive aspect of the 2023 Northwest cherry season was growth in international markets, said Keith Hu, director of international operations for Northwest Cherry Growers.

Hu said 6.1 million 20-pound boxes of Northwest cherries were exported last season, nearly one-third (32.6%) of total production.

“Our product, the Northwest cherry brand, is still highly sought after in (foreign) markets,” Hu said.

As COVID and other trade restrictions ease from recent years, markets such as Vietnam and Thailand have seen growing demand for Northwest cherries, he added.

Canada remains the No. 1 destination for exported Northwest cherries, a trend that started when trade restrictions between China and the United States began in 2017 and 2018, Hu said. As exports to China declined, the shipments of cherries to Canada and Latin America – particularly Mexico – picked up the slack.

He showed slides of huge retail displays in Mexican Walmarts and other grocery stores which have helped expand sales of Northwest cherries there.

“I’m very excited about that market for us,” Hu said of Mexico. “Southeast Asia and Latin America are prime markets for future sales. They want high-quality, top-shelf cherries, and that’s what we have.”

The average cherry consumer

Thurlby, Hu and a marketing panel of Kershaw, Taylor and Sage Fruit’s Jeff Baldwin all discussed the demographics of sweet cherry customers and the optimal price point to balance strong sales with a return of profits for growers.

The trio of Central Washington fruit packers agreed that the $3.99 to $4.50 per pound range is the “sweet spot” that doesn’t turn away consumers while remaining profitable for growers.

Beyond the price, the quality of the 2023 Northwest cherry crop hopefully converted more shoppers into faithful future consumers, they said.

“I’ve never sold such beautiful fruit at such low prices,” Taylor said of 2023.

Thurlby noted that marketing efforts stressing the health benefits of cherry consumption have boosted the average age of customers into the mid-50s and older, according to Northwest Cherry Grower survey data.

These surveys show that 94% of consumers report quality is the most important consideration in purchasing cherries, with flavor (93%) close behind. Price is an important factor for 70% of cherry customers.

Cherries tend to be an impulse buy for many grocery store customers, so their placement in displays and advertising also is important, Thurlby added.

The message of health benefits and nutrition is making an impact, he said, as 57% of consumers surveyed mentioned that as a factor in their cherry purchases – “something that wasn’t even on our chart (of reasons) 10 years ago.”

“The number of consumers who put cherries on their shopping list because of health benefits has doubled since 2016,” Thurlby said.

Among other fruits, Thurlby said surveys indicate blueberries are trending similar to cherries in their popularity with older consumers due to their quality, flavor and health benefits.

Among younger consumers with families, grapes are increasing in popularity, in part due more affordable pricing, Thurlby said.

“Age is the most predictive demographic of the cherry consumer,” he added. “We’re happy to have these people (as customers), but we have to find a way to market to other groups.”