Commentary: Mason Rudolph has everything to gain in Buffalo, while Bills have everything to lose

PITTSBURGH – The player with the most to gain in Monday’s Steelers-Bills game is obvious: Mason Rudolph. It is one thing to play well against bad Cincinnati and Seattle defenses and the Baltimore Ravens’ JVs. It is something much different to do it on the road against a 10-point favorite and lead the Steelers to their first playoff win in seven years. That would open a lot of eyes around the NFL.

The coach and player with the most to lose Monday are just as obvious: Buffalo’s Sean McDermott and Josh Allen. A loss would be the worst in Bills postseason history, based on the point spread. That makes for a lot of pressure, especially considering the Bills’ history is pretty bleak. They are one of 12 teams to never win a Super Bowl despite getting four consecutive cracks at it with Marv Levy, Jim Kelly and their bunch from 1990-93.

First, the Rudolph situation.

Based on his comments and his general lack of public praise for Rudolph, it seems clear Mike Tomlin plans on going back to Kenny Pickett as his quarterback next season. That makes sense in a way, even though Rudolph did more in the past three games than Pickett did in his 25 starts. The Steelers have a lot invested in Pickett. They used their No. 1 pick on him in the 2022 NFL draft. They are going to give him every chance to succeed, even though he hasn’t even faintly resembled a franchise quarterback.

But what happens if Rudolph plays well again? If he doesn’t turn the ball over in what figures to be abysmal weather conditions? If he makes the one big play to win the game, as he did in horrible weather in Baltimore last Saturday when he hit Diontae Johnson for a 71-yard touchdown pass in a 17-10 win?

Tomlin would be foolish not to give Rudolph at least a chance to compete for the starting job next season. I think Rudolph is better than Pickett. He has a better pocket presence and throws a better deep ball.

All of this is assuming Rudolph comes back to the Steelers. He is a free agent after the season. He has put himself in position to make really good money, if not from the Steelers, from another NFL team. I can’t wait to see what happens with him.

Now, McDermott and Allen.

The two have led the Bills to double-digit wins in each of the past five seasons. The team made it as far as the AFC championship game after the 2020 season but lost to Kansas City 38-24. Even more painful, it lost to the Chiefs the next season 42-36 in overtime in the divisional round after taking a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left in regulation. McDermott elected to kick off out of the end zone rather than calling for a seconds-eating squib kick. That left Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes enough time to complete two passes for 44 yards to set up the tying field goal.

“Devastated in our locker room,” Bills center Mitch Morse said after the game.

“It sucks,” safety Jordan Poyer said. “Something we’re going to have to live with.”

McDermott was fiercely criticized after that loss.

The reviews won’t be much kinder if the Bills lose to the Steelers.

The wise guys have Buffalo as the third favorite to win the Super Bowl after San Francisco and Baltimore. The Steelers are considered No. 14 out of 14 playoff teams. Allen is rated as the third-best quarterback after Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Rudolph is 14th. A No. 7 seed, which the Steelers are, has never won a game under the current postseason format. They are 0-6.

Can we agree the Bills have plenty to lose?

People in Buffalo won’t blame rotten weather if their team falls short on Monday. They will be too busy wondering if McDermott and Allen ever get the Bills over the hump.